AIR ALERT: BALLISTIC THREAT CLEARED (1318Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): The critical alert for ballistic missile employment from the southern vector has ended.
AERIAL THREAT: UAV & KAB ACTIVITY (1323Z-1324Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): New threats identified; Shahed-type UAVs are transiting western Kharkiv toward Sumy. Simultaneously, tactical aviation has launched KAB (guided bombs) against eastern Kharkiv.
TERRITORIAL CLAIM: BERESTOK (1302Z, Colonelcassad, LOW): Russian sources claim RF forces have occupied positions in the western part of Berestok (Pokrovsk/Kurakhove sector). UNCONFIRMED.
INTERNAL SECURITY: SBU LEADERSHIP RETAINED (1310Z, RBC-Ukraine, HIGH): The Verkhovna Rada Defense Committee has rejected the President’s motion to dismiss SBU Head Malyuk, ensuring C2 continuity within the security service.
RETROACTIVE BDA: "ORESHNIK" STRIKE IMPACT (1325Z, TASS/RU MoD, MEDIUM): RF MoD claims the Jan 9 "Oreshnik" (hypersonic/IRBM) strike successfully disabled the Lviv Aircraft Repair Plant, specifically targeting infrastructure used for F-16 and MiG-21 maintenance.
LOGISTICS: RAIL INFRASTRUCTURE (1301Z, Operatsiya Z, HIGH): Confirmed systemic disruption of Ukrainian rail movements following targeted kinetic strikes; RF propaganda is currently amplifying the scale of the paralysis.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
Northern/Sumy Sector: The threat profile has shifted from static grid issues to active aerial interdiction. UAVs transiting from Kharkiv toward Sumy (1323Z) suggest a potential "linking" strike or reconnaissance-in-force for upcoming KAB sorties.
Eastern Sector (Pokrovsk/Donetsk): The focus has expanded to Berestok (1302Z). If RF gains in western Berestok are confirmed, it indicates a widening of the breach south of Pokrovsk aimed at enveloping Kurakhove from the north.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia): Recovery operations continue following the blackout. Local administrations report maintaining stability despite severe weather (1302Z), but the RF "Vostok" group remains active with heavy artillery (1300Z).
Weather: Severe winter conditions continue to impact both logistics (rail delays) and physical defensive structures (collapsed drone screens noted in 24h context).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)
Capabilities & Intentions: The RF is heavily leaning into "Strategic Signaling." The retroactive reporting on the "Oreshnik" strike in Lviv (1325Z) is timed to coincide with NATO-level diplomatic discussions, aiming to project a capability to strike high-value western-integrated assets (F-16 maintenance) with impunity.
Tactical Adaptation: Russian Buk-M3 crews are reportedly operating in the South Donetsk direction with a specific focus on intercepting HIMARS and KABs (1305Z), suggesting an upgraded SHORAD density to protect recent gains like Belogorye.
Logistics: RF is weaponizing the Ukrainian rail crisis in the information space, attempting to lower civilian morale by highlighting the "total" nature of the transport paralysis.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)
C2 Stability: The retention of SBU Head Malyuk by the VRU Committee (1310Z) prevents a potential leadership vacuum during a period of high hybrid threat and deep-strike activity.
Air Defense: UAF Air Force successfully managed the southern ballistic threat window (1318Z), though focus must now pivot to the Kharkiv-Sumy UAV transit corridor.
Social/Legal: The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of POWs continues active engagement with families of the 15th National Guard Brigade (1305Z), critical for maintaining rear-area morale.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)
Deterrence Narratives: RF media (TASS) is framing the "Oreshnik" strike as a "signal to NATO" to abandon Kyiv (1310Z). This is a coordinated attempt to influence the upcoming NATO defense ministerial agendas.
Proxy Failure Narrative: Pro-RF channels are circulating reports of US military successes against Russian-made S-300/Buk systems in Venezuela (1309Z) to mock the incompetence of non-Russian operators and indirectly pressure other clients of Russian defense tech.
Internal Russian Dissent: Rare admission from pro-war channels (Dva Mayora, 1328Z) that the "Special Military Operation" was not planned for a long-duration conflict, noting the "flowers greeting" meme was a failure.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will maintain high-intensity KAB strikes on eastern Kharkiv while utilizing the Shahed transit toward Sumy to map new AD positions established during the rail-induced logistics reshuffle.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF forces exploit the claimed foothold in Berestok to launch a rapid mechanized push toward the H-15 highway, capitalizing on the current rail delays that prevent UAF from rapidly repositioning operational reserves.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Expect increased air defense activity in the Sumy/Kharkiv seam. The frontline in the Berestok-Pokrovsk sector is highly volatile; UAF units should prepare for localized "meat assaults" supported by the "Vostok" group's high-readiness artillery.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] BDA Lviv: Verify the operational status of the Lviv Aircraft Repair Plant. Determine if the Jan 9 strike achieved the claimed effects on F-16 maintenance infrastructure.
[HIGH] Berestok Status: Confirm the extent of RF presence in western Berestok. Is this a permanent occupation or a temporary raid by Spetsnaz elements (Archangel Spetsnaza, 1305Z)?
[MEDIUM] Rail Recovery: Estimate the time-to-restore for the "60+ stalled trains." Identify which specific logistics nodes are prioritized for mobile AD (Gepard) protection.
