AIR ALERT STATUS: KYIV ALL-CLEAR (1243Z, KMVA, HIGH): The air alert in Kyiv city has ended following the transition of the grid to emergency shutdown status.
AERIAL THREAT: BALLISTIC MISSILE RISK (1252Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): A critical alert has been issued for potential ballistic missile employment originating from the southern vector.
TERRITORIAL LOSS: NOVOBOIKOVSKE (1249Z, Poddubny, HIGH): Russian forces have confirmed the "liberation" (capture) of Novoboikovske in the Zaporizhzhia sector, consolidating the breach previously identified.
TACTICAL ENGAGEMENT: POKROVSK NORTH (1237Z, Slivochiy Kapriz, MEDIUM): Intense fighting has been localized to the northern outskirts of Krasnoarmiysk (Pokrovsk), specifically near the Shcherbakova settlement.
MARITIME RECONNAISSANCE: ODESA COAST (1253Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): A Russian reconnaissance UAV is active in the Black Sea near Odesa; UAF air defense assets are currently engaged in interdiction.
LEGAL/DIPLOMATIC: RU-BY NON-EXTRADITION PACT (1253Z, ASTRA, HIGH): Russia and Belarus have formally agreed to refuse the extradition of citizens requested by international courts, specifically targeting ICC warrants.
SANCTIONS EVASION: SHADOW FLEET EXPANSION (1245Z, Operativny ZSU/WSJ, HIGH): Confirmed reports that 25 tankers transitioned to the Russian flag in late 2025 to bypass maritime sanctions.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
Northern Sector (Kyiv): While kinetic strikes have paused (all-clear at 1243Z), the operational environment remains degraded due to the total blackout. The "reactive" Shahed threat noted in the previous report has successfully forced a shift in defensive posture but has not resulted in a second wave within the last hour.
Eastern Sector (Pokrovsk): The battlespace has shifted to the northern urban fringes. Fighting in the Shcherbakova settlement indicates RF attempts to bypass primary western defenses by flanking from the north (1237Z).
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Odesa): The capture of Novoboikovske (1249Z) provides the RF with a staging point for further northward movement toward the H-15 highway. Simultaneously, UAV transit toward Lozova (1234Z) suggests the RF is mapping deep rear logistics in the Kharkiv/Donetsk seam.
Weather: Sub-zero temperatures continue to stress the stabilized UAF lines and remaining energy infrastructure.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)
Capabilities & Intentions: The RF is currently pairing maritime reconnaissance (Odesa) with ballistic missile readiness. This "sensor-to-shooter" link suggests a high-precision strike is imminent, likely targeting naval assets or grain infrastructure.
Tactical Adaptation: RF is utilizing "reactive" UAVs to map AD gaps, followed by ballistic threats to force UAF AD commanders into a dilemma regarding magazine depth.
Logistics: The flags-of-convenience shift for 25 tankers (1245Z) indicates a successful mid-term adaptation to the "Price Cap" and maritime interdiction, ensuring sustained revenue for military operations.
C2/Legal: The RU-BY agreement on non-extradition (1253Z) serves as a C2 morale booster, signaling to high-ranking officers that they are protected from international legal consequences.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)
Force Posture: The 225th Separate Assault Regiment (OShP) "Pentagon" battalion is maintaining high situational awareness through active drone monitoring and interdiction of RF personnel in undisclosed sectors (1258Z).
Air Defense: UAF AF remains highly active in the southern/Odesa region. The engagement of the Black Sea recon UAV (1253Z) is critical to preventing accurate spotting for the projected ballistic wave.
Constraints: Grid instability in Kyiv remains the primary operational constraint, limiting the use of fixed-site SIGINT and C2 nodes that lack independent power.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)
Narrative Manipulation: RF state media (TASS, 1254Z) is distorting recent comments by Donald Trump regarding nuclear superiority to frame President Zelenskyy as having no international leverage.
Security Guarantees: Pro-RF channels are framing the "Paris Agreement" as a "forever war" mechanism (1231Z) to erode domestic Ukrainian support for long-term security pacts.
Legitimacy Attacks: Russian sources are amplifying civilian casualty reports from the New Year's Eve Khorly strike (1232Z, 1246Z) to counter the narrative of UAF precision.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will launch a limited ballistic missile strike from the south within the next 3-6 hours, targeting Odesa port infrastructure or AD batteries revealed during the current UAV engagement.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF "Center" group exploits the Shcherbakova foothold to launch a multi-axis mechanized assault on Pokrovsk, utilizing the UGV "Courier" units to breach UAF minefields while the city remains partially paralyzed by power outages.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
High alert for the southern regions (Odesa/Mykolaiv) due to ballistic threats. Expect continued high-intensity urban combat on the northern outskirts of Pokrovsk. The energy situation in Kyiv is unlikely to stabilize within this window, necessitating continued reliance on decentralized C2.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Ballistic Launch Platforms: Identify the specific location of Transporter Erector Launchers (TELs) in Crimea or the Kherson coast associated with the 1252Z alert.
[HIGH] Shcherbakova Disposition: Determine the depth of the RF breach in the northern outskirts of Pokrovsk and if armored reserves are being moved to exploit the settlement.
[MEDIUM] UK Ship Seizure Policy: Assess the tactical impact of British maritime legislative changes on the "Shadow Fleet" (25 tankers) and potential for UAF-UK coordinated interdiction in international waters.
