CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE: TOTAL KYIV BLACKOUT (1224Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, HIGH): All of Kyiv has transitioned to emergency power shutdowns. Previous "schedules" are void as the grid has reached a state of total instability (YASNO).
AERIAL THREAT: REACTIVE SHAHED TOWARD KYIV (1228Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, MEDIUM): Detection of a high-speed "reactive" variant of the Shahed UAV targeting the capital. This represents a significant tactical escalation in terminal velocity/evasion capabilities.
TACTICAL SUCCESS: POKROVSK RAIDS (1202Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, HIGH): The UAF 425th "Skela" Regiment continues active counter-attacks and raids within the Pokrovsk sector, neutralizing Russian ambushes despite RF claims of imminent occupation.
ENEMY TECH: UGV DEPLOYMENT (1210Z, Colonelcassad, HIGH): RF forces ("Center" Group) are confirmed to be using "Courier" (Курьер) multi-purpose Unmanned Ground Vehicles for ammunition delivery, casualty evacuation, and electronic smoke generation west of Rodynske.
LOGISTICS: TRANSNISTRIA ISOLATION CLAIM (1228Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, LOW): Reports suggest the Russian contingent in Transnistria (~1,500 personnel) is entirely cut off from supplies due to coordinated Ukraine-Moldova border closures. (UNCONFIRMED) - This claim requires verification due to historical temporal contradictions in the reporting source.
INTERNATIONAL AID: NORWEGIAN SUPPORT (1213Z, DeepState, HIGH): Norway has announced a new $400 million support package for Ukraine.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
Kyiv & Northern Sector: The capital is under active air alert (1227Z) following the detection of UAVs transiting from Chernihiv toward Brovary. The energy situation is catastrophic; the transition of the entire city to emergency shutdowns suggests a failure of the primary distribution nodes under sustained pressure.
Donetsk Sector (Pokrovsk/Krasnoarmiysk): The battlespace is increasingly "robotized." RF forces are using UGVs to mitigate high infantry attrition rates during the approach to Pokrovsk. UAF maintains a "mobile defense" posture, utilizing specialized units like the 425th Reg for surgical raids.
Zaporizhzhia Sector: RF consolidation of Novoboikovske is confirmed (1207Z). New UAV vectors from the south (1219Z) suggest the enemy is attempting to map the depth of UAF secondary lines following the Novoboikovske breach.
Southern/Maritime Sector: High activity in the Black Sea. A Russian reconnaissance UAV was detected near Odesa (1205Z), likely functioning as a spotter for upcoming missile or "reactive" drone strikes. Simultaneously, Sevastopol (Occupied Crimea) declared an air alert (1212Z).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)
Tactical Adaptation: The introduction of "Reactive Shaheds" aims to decrease the intercept window for Ukrainian mobile fire groups. Combined with the "Courier" UGVs in the Donbas, the RF is attempting to reduce human exposure in high-attrition "kill zones" while maintaining pressure on the grid.
Course of Action: RF is prioritizing the psychological and physical collapse of Kyiv's energy infrastructure. By forcing total blackouts during sub-zero temperatures, they seek to create a humanitarian crisis that coincides with high-volume drone saturation.
C2 and Logistics: Claims of the isolation of Transnistrian forces, if true, would force the RF to consider risky aerial resupply corridors or accept the degradation of its westernmost outpost.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)
Force Posture: UAF continues to demonstrate high tactical proficiency in the Pokrovsk sector. The 33rd Separate Mechanized Brigade is effectively using FPV drones to interdict logistical violations and non-standard vehicle movements (1213Z).
Resource Status: The $400M Norwegian package is critical but likely focused on medium-term sustainment. Immediate tactical needs remain FPV battery heaters and SHORAD ammunition to counter the new reactive UAV threats.
Internal Security: The SBU/General Prosecutor's Office has exposed a 5.5 million UAH corruption scheme involving shelter construction in Kherson (1200Z). While a setback for infrastructure, the public exposure indicates ongoing anti-corruption oversight during active hostilities.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)
Defeatism Narrative: RF-aligned channels are amplifying a New York Times interview with Donald Trump to suggest President Zelenskyy has "no cards left" (1201Z), aiming to undermine domestic morale during the Kyiv blackout.
Diversionary Rhetoric: Russian state media (TASS) and pro-RF channels are focusing on US/China friction regarding Greenland and Venezuela (1204Z, 1207Z, 1222Z) to distract from battlefield attrition and domestic Russian issues (e.g., the Pskov dog abuse scandal/official firing at 1207Z).
Civic Morale: Ukrainian activists (Sternenko, 1216Z) continue successful peer-to-peer fundraising, maintaining a high degree of horizontal social mobilization.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will maintain the UAV pressure on Kyiv for the next 6-12 hours, using the reactive Shaheds to target the specific distribution substations currently supporting the "emergency" minimum load.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF exploits the deployment of "Courier" UGVs to launch a "smoke-screened" mechanized assault on the western outskirts of Pokrovsk, banking on UAF logistics being hampered by the localized grid failures and winter visibility issues.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
The Kyiv region remains at the highest threat level. The combination of "reactive" UAV technology and a collapsed energy grid creates a window for significant infrastructure damage. Expect continued RF claims of Pokrovsk's "inevitable fall," though tactical evidence suggests UAF counter-raid capacity remains intact.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Reactive Shahed Tech: Need debris recovery and engine analysis to determine the propulsion type (turbojet vs. pulsejet) and speed profiles for AD adjustment.
[HIGH] Transnistria Logistics: Verification of the "total cutoff" claim. Any SIGINT regarding Russian MoD plans for an air-bridge to Tiraspol is a priority.
[MEDIUM] UGV "Courier" Counters: Assessment of the effectiveness of standard FPV electronic warfare against the UGV's control frequency (likely non-standard if used for smoke generation).
[LOW] Odesa Recon Intent: Determine if the Black Sea UAV was spotting for "Kalibr" launches or simply mapping coastal AD positions.
