CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE: KYIV GRID COLLAPSE (1142Z-1157Z, YASNO/RBK-UA, HIGH): The entirety of Kyiv has transitioned to emergency power shutdowns. Grid load has exceeded capacity following sustained temperatures and previous kinetic impacts. Pro-RF sources claim TPP-5 and TPP-6 are non-functional (Poddubny, 1147Z).
TERRITORIAL LOSS: NOVOBOIKOVSKE CONFIRMED (1148Z, RF MoD/Colonelcassad, HIGH): The Russian Ministry of Defense has officially claimed the capture of Novoboikovske (Zaporizhzhia), confirming the breach reported in the 1130Z Sitrep.
AERIAL THREAT: BALLISTIC WARNING (1158Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Active threat of ballistic missile employment from the southern direction (likely Crimea or Black Sea assets).
AERIAL THREAT: KRYVYI RIH UNDER ATTACK (1130Z-1138Z, Vilkul/Vanyek, HIGH): Shahed-type UAVs are actively striking infrastructure in Kryvyi Rih. At least one unit remains active in the district as of 1138Z.
TACTICAL DATA: FPV DEGRADATION (1150Z, Sternenko, HIGH): Severe winter conditions (icing and battery sag) are significantly increasing the expenditure rate of FPV drones per target, straining immediate tactical reserves.
UNCONFIRMED TECH: "NIGHTFALL" MISSILE (1133Z, Dnevnik Desantnika, LOW): Reports of a new UK-developed long-range missile named "Nightfall" for Ukraine. This is currently uncorroborated and may be a Russian information operation.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
Kyiv/Strategic Rear: The energy situation has reached a critical inflection point. Emergency blackouts across the capital indicate a systemic failure to balance the grid under "January frosts." This coincides with RF narratives (Poddubny, 1147Z) aiming to link the energy crisis to UAF strikes on Russian regions (e.g., the Caspian Sea SOF strike reported in the Daily Summary).
Zaporizhzhia Sector: The 49th Combined Arms Army (CAA) has consolidated control over Novoboikovske. The frontline is fluid, with RF forces attempting to leverage the collapse of UAF anti-drone screens (weather-induced) to push toward the T0803 highway.
Donetsk/Seversk Sector: RF forces report the destruction of a UAF UAV control center and observation post near Seversk (1131Z). This suggests intensified RF reconnaissance-strike loops in the Lyman-Seversk salient.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)
Course of Action: The RF is maintaining a "dual-pressure" strategy—kinetic pressure on the Zaporizhzhia breach and cognitive/infrastructural pressure on the civilian population in Kyiv.
Targeting: Shift toward Kryvyi Rih’s industrial backbone (1130Z) suggests an intent to paralyze the metallurgical and mining sectors, further degrading Ukraine's economic war-fighting capacity.
Tactical Adaptation: Use of "complex fire" and potentially the new "Shahed mine-laying" capability (reported 1108Z) continues to threaten mobile reserves.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)
Logistical Constraints: FPV drone operators report higher-than-normal attrition and consumption due to icing (1150Z). This requires an immediate surge in battery supplies and chemical heating pads to front-line units.
Capabilities: Ukraine continues to employ its limited stock of guided aerial bombs (UABs) (1148Z) to counter RF positions, though the quantity remains a limiting factor compared to RF KAB usage.
Air Defense: Engagement of Shaheds over Kryvyi Rih remains ongoing. The ballistic threat from the south (1158Z) has forced AD assets into high-readiness states, potentially exposing them to RF SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses) drones.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)
Energy Narrative: RF propagandists are actively weaponizing the Kyiv blackout, using it to deter UAF strikes on RF territory by promising "greater retaliation" and highlighting the presence of TCC (recruitment) checkpoints on exit routes from the city to prevent population flight (1147Z).
Disinformation/Leaks: The "Nightfall" missile claim (1133Z) and the Bundeswehr scandal report (1135Z) are being amplified to suggest Western instability and "secret" escalations.
Strategic Pessimism: Former FM Kuleba’s assessment that the war will not end in 2026 (1137Z) is being used in pro-RF channels to undermine long-term morale.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will launch a follow-on missile wave (potentially ballistic, per the 1158Z warning) targeting the remaining energy nodes in Western Ukraine or the Kyiv transmission hubs to ensure a total grid "zero-out."
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF exploits the Seversk observation post destruction to launch a localized mechanized assault toward the heights overlooking the city, while the Zaporizhzhia breach forces UAF to pull reserves from the Donbas.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Extreme risk to the Kyiv energy grid. If TPP-5 and TPP-6 are indeed offline, the capital faces a prolonged blackout during sub-zero temperatures. Expect continued RF MoD claims of tactical advances west of Novoboikovske as they test the secondary UAF defensive lines.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Kyiv Energy Status: Physical verification of the operational status of TPP-5 and TPP-6.
[HIGH] Ballistic Launch Confirmation: Real-time SIGINT/IMINT on TEL (Transporter Erector Launcher) movements in Crimea to confirm the 1158Z ballistic threat.
[MEDIUM] Nightfall Technicals: HUMINT or TECHINT verification of any new UK missile systems entering the theater to distinguish between operational reality and RF disinformation.
[LOW] FPV Supply Chain: Quantify the "increased expenditure" noted by units in the field to adjust monthly procurement targets for the winter cycle.
