TERRITORIAL LOSS: NOVOBOIKOVSKE (1115Z-1127Z, RF MoD/Multiple, HIGH): Russian forces have captured Novoboikovske in the Zaporizhzhia sector. This follows the loss of Belogorye (reported 11 JAN) and indicates a widening breach in the southern defensive line.
TACTICAL INNOVATION: SHAHED MINE-LAYING (1108Z, Tsaplienko/Flash, HIGH): Confirmed use of Shahed-type UAVs to air-drop PTM-3 magnetic anti-tank mines. This represents a significant threat to Ukrainian Ground Lines of Communication (GLOCs) and mobile reserves.
UAV THREAT: MULTI-AXIS SWARMS (1107Z-1125Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Active "Shahed" incursions are currently targeting Kryvyi Rih, Chornomorsk (Odesa), and Kharkiv. Local authorities in Kryvyi Rih report "loud" impacts/interceptions.
INTELLIGENCE OP: GRU ASSET RECRUITMENT (1123Z, Kotsnews, HIGH): The Russian Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) has launched an overt Telegram-based appeal to recruit "like-minded individuals" abroad for intelligence collaboration.
UNCONFIRMED TECH: GERAN-VERBA HYBRID (1105Z, Operatsiya Z/GUR, MEDIUM): Emerging reports/infographics suggest a new "Geran-2" modification equipped with a "Verba" MANPADS for self-defense against interceptor aircraft and drones.
HYBRID WARFARE: RELIGIOUS DISINFORMATION (1119Z-1126Z, SVR RF/TASS, MEDIUM): Russian Foreign Intelligence (SVR) has launched a coordinated narrative attack against the Ecumenical Patriarchate and British intelligence, alleging a conspiracy to "expel Russian Orthodoxy" from the Baltics and Balkans.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
Zaporizhzhia Sector: The frontline has shifted west of the previously lost Belogorye. The capture of Novoboikovske suggests the 49th Combined Arms Army (CAA) is successfully exploiting the "Logistical Crisis" (weather-induced screen collapse) noted in the previous 24h cycle.
Air Domain: High-density reconnaissance UAV activity is noted south of Zaporizhzhia and north of Kherson (1129Z), likely identifying targets for the current Shahed wave.
Weather: Continued winter conditions are facilitating the use of magnetic mines (PTM-3) which may be obscured by snow or mud, increasing the lethality against logistics vehicles.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)
Tactical Adaptation: The deployment of PTM-3 mines via Shahed allows the RF to conduct remote mining of the Ukrainian rear without risking manned aviation. If the Geran-Verba hybrid is confirmed, it indicates a move to neutralize UAF "Shahed-hunter" helicopters and Yakovlev Yak-52 interceptors.
Ground Forces: In the Kharkiv sector (Liptsy/Vesele), RF forces are employing "complex fire" (likely integrated tube artillery and FPV drones) to target National Guard of Ukraine (NGU) units (1106Z).
C2/Intelligence: The GRU's overt recruitment drive suggests a pivot toward "digital HUMINT" to compensate for diplomatic expulsions of traditional intelligence officers.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)
Defensive Actions: The 79th Separate Air Assault Brigade is actively clearing RF "hideouts" in rural farmsteads, maintaining tactical pressure despite broader sector retreats (1104Z).
Air Defense: UAF Air Force is currently engaged in high-intensity kinetic interception over Kryvyi Rih and Odesa.
Logistics: The threat to GLOCs is elevated due to the new Shahed-dropped mine tactic, necessitating updated de-mining protocols for rear-area roads.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)
Demoralization Campaign: Pro-RF and some international outlets are amplifying Donald Trump’s rhetoric (e.g., Zelensky has "no cards," US weapons superiority, NATO not feared by RF) to undermine UAF resolve and Western commitment (1108Z-1128Z).
Strategic Distraction: The SVR's focus on Patriarch Bartholomew and the British SIB appears designed to inflame regional tensions in the Balkans (Montenegro/Serbia) and Baltics to divert NATO's focus from the Ukrainian theater.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue to exploit the Zaporizhzhia breach, moving toward the T0803 highway to isolate Huliaipole. Concurrent Shahed waves will prioritize Kryvyi Rih’s industrial/energy nodes to maintain pressure on the grid.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes the new mine-laying Shaheds to block the H-15 highway while simultaneously launching a mechanized push from Novoboikovske, aiming to encircle UAF groupings in the southern Donetsk/Zaporizhzhia border region while logistics are paralyzed.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
High probability of continued urban strikes in Kryvyi Rih and Kharkiv. UAF must prioritize the detection and neutralization of air-dropped mines on key supply routes. Expect further RF MoD claims of progress in the Zaporizhzhia sector as they consolidate gains in Novoboikovske.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] PTM-3 Drop Zones: Urgent mapping of Shahed flight paths over the last 4 hours to identify potential air-dropped minefields on GLOCs.
[HIGH] Geran-Verba Verification: Technical intelligence (TECHINT) required on any downed UAVs to confirm or deny the presence of MANPADS integration.
[MEDIUM] Novoboikovske Status: Independent verification of UAF withdrawal limits. Is there a secondary defensive line established west of the settlement?
