STRATEGIC INFRASTRUCTURE: MASSIVE GRID STRIKES (1031Z, Operatsiya Z, MEDIUM): RF sources claim a widespread overnight strike campaign against Ukrainian energy infrastructure, allegedly resulting in power outages across "the majority of regions."
TACTICAL AVIATION: PRECISION STRIKE (1049Z, Butusov Plus, HIGH): UAF MiG-29 successfully deployed French-supplied AASM Hammer glide bombs against an RF ammunition depot and troop positions.
DIPLOMATIC SUPPORT: NORWEGIAN SECURITY GUARANTEES (1031Z-1044Z, MFA Norway/RBK-UA, HIGH): Norway has confirmed participation in future security guarantees for Ukraine alongside a 4 billion NOK aid package.
HEAVY ARTILLERY: MLRS AREA STRIKE (1031Z, MoD Russia, HIGH): RF "Tsentr" Group utilized Uragan MLRS for a "massive area strike" targeting UAF positions in the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction.
KUPYANSK AXIS: OSKIL INTERDICTION (1046Z, Starshiy Eddy, MEDIUM): RF 6th Combined Arms Army is utilizing drone systems to target UAF forces reportedly "blocked" on the left bank of the Oskil River.
INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT: TRUMP INTERVIEW (1050Z, NYT/RBK-UA, HIGH): Former US President Trump stated President Zelensky "has no cards" in negotiations, positioning himself as the primary leverage point.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
Weather: Continued winter conditions are impacting the power grid's recovery following reported strikes. Cloud cover likely dictates the effectiveness of both UAF and RF tactical drone operations.
Infrastructure: Ukraine has achieved a milestone with the launch of the 5G pilot in Lviv (1043Z). However, this is countered by reports of systemic power failures across multiple oblasts following overnight kinetic activity.
Battlefield Geometry: The frontline remains focused on the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) axis and the Oskil River line in the Kharkiv sector.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)
Tactical Changes: RF is employing high-volume "area strikes" (Uragan MLRS) in the Donetsk sector to compensate for UAF defensive hardening. In Kupyansk, the focus is on isolating and attriting UAF units near the Oskil River using UAS (1046Z).
Strategic Intent: The reported massive strikes on the energy grid (1031Z) represent a likely retaliation for the UAF SOF strike on Caspian Sea platforms reported in the previous 24h cycle.
Logistics: Heavy reliance on "meat assault" tactics and MLRS area saturation indicates a continued preference for attrition over maneuver.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)
Air Capabilities: UAF continues to demonstrate high-end integration of Western munitions, specifically the AASM Hammer on MiG-29 platforms, allowing for standoff precision strikes against high-value targets (Ammo Depots).
Modernization: Deployment of the "Armia+" application (1034Z) aims to reduce administrative lag, which is critical during high-intensity winter rotations.
Defensive Posture: UAF forces on the Oskil left bank face persistent interdiction but maintain positions despite RF claims of them being "blocked."
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)
Narrative Displacement: RF channels are attempting to divert attention from internal issues (e.g., the Belgorod grid crisis) by highlighting domestic trivia (Abyssinian cat awards, 1053Z) and foreign festivals (Harbin, 1038Z).
Demoralization: Pro-RF sources are amplifying Donald Trump’s NYT comments to project a sense of impending loss of Western support (1050Z).
Disinformation: Claims by RF sources that Ukraine has "lasted longer than the Third Reich" (1030Z) are being used to frame the conflict in a distorted historical context to motivate the RF domestic audience.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will maintain the pressure on the energy grid over the next 12-24 hours to prevent the stabilization of rail logistics (referencing the 60+ train delays in the daily report).
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF exploits the reported power outages to launch a mechanized push in the Kupyansk sector, aiming to collapse the Oskil bridgehead while UAF signal/C2 nodes are potentially compromised by power issues.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
The operational tempo will remain high. Expect further confirmation of the scale of grid damage. UAF will likely respond to MLRS area strikes with targeted AASM Hammer or HIMARS strikes on RF artillery concentrations and C2 nodes in the Tsentr Group of Forces area of responsibility.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Grid Damage Assessment: Urgent need to verify the extent of the "majority of regions" without power. Is this a total blackout or localized load-shedding?
[HIGH] Oskil Supply Routes: Determine the status of crossings on the Oskil River. Are UAF forces truly "blocked," or is this RF psychological warfare?
[MEDIUM] AASM Inventory: Assessment of current UAF stockpiles of AASM Hammer to determine the sustainability of the current precision strike tempo.
