STRATEGIC ENERGY STRIKE (0855Z, MinEnergy UA, HIGH): Ministry of Energy confirms a large-scale overnight Russian kinetic campaign targeting energy infrastructure across multiple regions. This confirms the "retaliatory strike" predicted in the 11 JAN daily report following UAF Caspian operations.
TACTICAL AERIAL SURGE (0831Z-0858Z, PS ZSU, HIGH): Simultaneous UAV and KAB (Guided Aerial Bomb) activity. Specific threats identified: UAVs toward Ovidiopol/Odesa and Zaporizhzhia; KAB launches targeting Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions.
INFRASTRUCTURE COLLAPSE: ALCHEVSK (0833Z, Mash na Donbasse, HIGH): A major heating main rupture in occupied Alchevsk has left residential areas on Prospekt Ilyicha without heating. Under -22°C conditions, this is a life-threatening failure of occupation administration logistics.
REAR AREA SABOTAGE (0838Z, Operatsiya Z/FSB, MEDIUM): RF authorities claim to have interdicted a "terrorist attack" on a railway bridge in Perm Krai. If confirmed, this indicates UAF or partisan reach extending deep into the Urals to disrupt trans-Siberian GLOCs.
IO CAMPAIGN: SELIDOVO ALLEGATIONS (0851Z, TASS/Miroshnik, LOW/UNCONFIRMED): Russian state media is circulating claims of "130 civilians killed by UAF" in Selidovo. Assessed as a proactive information operation to mask RF-inflicted civilian casualties or justify retaliatory strikes.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
Weather Impact: The "Deep Freeze" (-22°C) remains the primary operational constraint. The heating failure in Alchevsk (0833Z) and the Chernihiv blackout (0806Z) indicate that both front-line and rear-area infrastructure are at a breaking point.
Battlefield Geometry: RF is maintaining high-pressure aerial saturation across the Southern and Eastern axes. The vector toward Ovidiopol (0831Z) suggests an attempt to bypass Odesa’s primary air defense umbrella to strike southern logistical hubs or port infrastructure.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)
Aviation/Missile Intent: The overnight strike on the energy grid (0855Z) was likely the "Most Likely Course of Action" (MLCOA) identified previously—a retaliatory response to the UAF Caspian SOF strikes.
Tactical Adaptation: The use of KABs in Zaporizhzhia (0849Z) is being synchronized with UAV swarms (0843Z) to overwhelm localized SHORAD. This supports the previous assessment of a potential push toward Huliaipole by the RF 49th Combined Arms Army.
Internal Security: The St. Petersburg investigation into migrant legalization (0831Z) and new digital insult laws (0845Z) suggest the RF is tightening domestic control to prevent internal friction during the winter offensive.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)
Air Defense Posture: UAF Air Force is actively tracking and engaging multiple vectors (Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk). However, the Ministry of Energy's confirmation of grid damage (0855Z) suggests that despite high interception rates, RF saturation is achieving technical "leaks" through the defense screen.
Logistical Strain: The ongoing rail delays (60+ trains) mentioned in the 24h summary are likely exacerbated by the new energy strikes, hindering the rapid movement of reserves to the Zaporizhzhia sector.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)
Reflexive Control: The "NATO in Greenland" satire (0834Z) and Selidovo atrocity claims (0851Z) are intended to distract from RF infrastructure failures and frame UAF actions as "terroristic."
International Narratives: Statements by Karl von Habsburg (0830Z) calling for regime change in Moscow are being amplified in UA-aligned channels to bolster morale and signal long-term Western strategic commitment.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will maintain the "KAB-UAV cycle" over Zaporizhzhia to exploit the collapsed anti-drone screens (ref: 11 JAN report). Expect localized ground assaults from the Belogorye breach within the next 12 hours.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A secondary energy strike tonight targeting the remaining stable nodes in Western Ukraine (Lviv/Ivano-Frankivsk) to trigger a total national grid collapse during the peak of the cold snap.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
High threat of energy-dependent infrastructure failure in Alchevsk and Chernihiv leading to humanitarian emergencies. Kinetic focus remains on the Zaporizhzhia-Donetsk arc, with Odesa under persistent UAV threat from the Black Sea.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Energy BDA: Immediate assessment of the damage level from the 0855Z energy strikes. Which regions have lost the "island mode" capability?
[HIGH] Alchevsk Stability: Monitor for civilian unrest or mass evacuations in Alchevsk; heating failures at -22°C can render a city uninhabitable within hours.
[MEDIUM] Perm Krai Incident: Corroborate the railway bridge sabotage via SIGINT or local partisan channels to determine if the GLOC disruption is significant.
