STRATEGIC POSTURE: EXTENSION OF MARTIAL LAW (0826Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): President Zelensky has formally submitted bills to the Verkhovna Rada to extend martial law and general mobilization for an additional 90 days.
INFRASTRUCTURE FAILURE: CHERNIHIV BLACKOUT (0806Z, Operatsiya Z, HIGH): Chernihiv Oblast has entered a total blackout. This follows the systemic energy crisis previously noted in Kyiv and Odesa, likely exacerbated by the -22°C cold snap.
AERIAL THREAT: ODESA/KYIV AXIS (0813Z, 0814Z, PS ZSU, HIGH): New UAV waves detected launching from the Black Sea toward Odesa and transiting Northern Kyiv toward Zhytomyr.
TACTICAL ARTILLERY: MALVA SPG DEPLOYMENT (0802Z, MoD Russia, MEDIUM): RF 27th Motorized Rifle Brigade (Zapad Group) confirmed using the 2S39 "Malva" wheeled self-propelled gun in the Kharkiv sector. This indicates a high-mobility artillery capability being used to counter UAF strongpoints.
SIGINT/C2 DISRUPTION: RUSSIAN DOMESTIC (0815Z, Kotsnews, MEDIUM): Reports of Telegram outages along the M4 highway in Russia. This often correlates with localized Electronic Warfare (EW) activity or high-security convoy movements.
FOREIGN INTERVENTION RUMORS: UK/FRANCE (0808Z, Operatsiya Z/Bloomberg, LOW/UNCONFIRMED): Pro-Russian sources are circulating claims of a potential UK-French deployment of 15,000 troops to Ukraine. This is currently assessed as an information operation aimed at escalating the "NATO intervention" narrative.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
Weather Impact: Extreme cold (-22°C) is now the decisive factor in infrastructure stability. The Chernihiv blackout (0806Z) indicates the northern grid is reaching a breaking point.
Battlefield Geometry: RF forces are prioritizing the suppression of UAF ISR. Successful strikes on UAF drone antennas and cameras in the Rayske area (0801Z) suggest a localized effort to create "blind spots" in the Pokrovsk-adjacent sectors.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)
Recent Tactical Adaptations: RF forces are increasingly integrating POW-derived intelligence for immediate fire missions. The report of a captured commander providing coordinates for a "precise strike" (0816Z, Basurin) highlights a streamlined sensor-to-shooter link.
Logistics & Sustainment: The 100-video digest of Lancet loitering munitions (0803Z) underscores the sustained production and operational reliance on these platforms for tactical interdiction.
C2 Effectiveness: Outages on the M4 highway suggest the RF is hardening its own rear-area communications or conducting sensitive movements that require signal suppression.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)
Lyman Sector: The 4th Separate Presidential Brigade remains active and effective, releasing footage of successful drone-led attrition against RF assets (0809Z).
Force Readiness: The 90-day extension of mobilization ensures a legal framework for continued replenishment, though the logistics of training and equipping in -22°C conditions remain a constraint.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)
Hybrid Narratives: Russian state media (TASS, 0811Z) is attempting to link US/Israeli intelligence to domestic Iranian unrest, likely to solidify the Moscow-Tehran military-technical axis and justify continued Shahed/ballistic missile transfers.
Internal Stability: The Belgorod Governor’s directive to monitor "provocations" (0822Z) indicates rising domestic tension in RF border regions due to consistent UAF cross-border pressure.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will maintain the UAV pressure on Odesa to prevent the port from operating during the energy crisis, while simultaneously using the Malva SPG's mobility in Kharkiv to conduct "shoot-and-scoot" missions against UAF defensive lines.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated RF breakthrough in the Rayske/Pokrovsk sector exploiting the recently destroyed UAF ISR nodes (antennas/cameras), supported by heavy Lancet saturation to prevent UAF reinforcements from arriving via the M-04.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
High probability of increased kinetic activity in the Lyman and Kharkiv directions as RF seeks to exploit weather-induced UAF logistical friction. Continued monitoring of the Odesa UAV corridor is critical as launch volumes from the Black Sea increase.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[HIGH] Chernihiv Grid Status: Determine if the blackout is a result of kinetic strikes or environmental overload (icing).
[MEDIUM] M4 Signal Outage: Confirm if the Telegram outage on the M4 is due to the deployment of mobile EW systems (e.g., Krasukha-4) or a broader domestic censorship test.
[LOW] Bloomberg Report Verification: Seek official UK/French MoD clarification regarding the "15,000 troops" claim to neutralize potential disinformation.
