TACTICAL THREAT: AA-CAPABLE UAV (0750Z, Operativno ZSU/GUR, MEDIUM): Ukrainian GUR reports a new Russian modification of the Geran-2 (Shahed-136) equipped with MANPADS and a dedicated warhead. If confirmed, this represents a significant threat to UAF rotary-wing assets and ISR drones.
OPERATIONAL PRESSURE: POKROVSK AXIS (0732Z, TASS/Pushilin, MEDIUM): Reports of intense combat near Grishino and Udachne (west of Pokrovsk). This indicates a Russian effort to extend the salient and interdict the M-04 highway and rail infrastructure.
ENERGY CRISIS: KYIV/ODESA (0735Z, 0758Z, Operatsiya Z/RBC-Ukraine, HIGH): Confirmed icing and failure of Kyiv's heat distribution pipes following infrastructure strikes. In Odesa, "tens of thousands" remain without power, exacerbated by the forecasted -22°C cold snap.
AERIAL ACTIVITY: NORTHERN CORRIDOR (0731Z, 0747Z, PS ZSU, HIGH): Multiple UAV waves detected transiting Chernihiv Oblast on a westward course toward Kyiv.
PRECISION FIRES: SUMY/KHARKIV (0730Z, MoD Russia, MEDIUM): Russian "Sever" Group claims use of Krasnopol laser-guided munitions against UAF UAV command posts and depots in the border regions.
INTERNAL SECURITY: KYIV SCHOOL INCIDENT (0740Z, Operativno ZSU, HIGH): A school stabbing in Kyiv is being investigated by National Police. While likely a domestic criminal matter, it places additional strain on emergency services during a period of high aerial alert.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
Weather Impact: The forecasted temperature drop to -22°C has begun to manifest in infrastructure failure. Visual evidence confirms frozen/burst thermal pipes in Kyiv (0735Z). This environmental factor is now a primary driver of operational friction for both sides.
Battlefield Geometry: The reported fighting at Grishino and Udachne suggests the Russian offensive is attempting to bypass Pokrovsk to the south and west to sever the H-15/M-04 logistics nodes.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)
Technological Adaptation: The emergence of "Geran-5" rumors (WarGonzo, 0732Z) and GUR reports of MANPAD-equipped Geran-2s (0750Z) suggest Russia is prioritizing "loitering air defense" and high-volume strike platforms to counter Ukrainian tactical aviation and drone superiority.
C2 Hardening: The Russian State Duma's mandate for state/utility entities to use the "Max" secure messenger indicates a systematic effort to harden domestic and military-adjacent communications against Western/Ukrainian signals intelligence (SIGINT).
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)
Civilian Resilience: Zaporizhzhia authorities have transitioned "Points of Invincibility" to 24/7 operations (0738Z), anticipating a humanitarian crisis as the energy grid remains under pressure.
Logistical Strain: The combination of Odesa blackouts and the rail delays noted in the previous 24h report (60+ trains) suggests a deepening logistics bottleneck in the south and center.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)
Disinformation/Satire: High-profile Ukrainian channels (Sternenko, 0731Z) are utilizing political satire regarding US/International politics to maintain domestic engagement, though this does not impact tactical operations.
Internal Stability Narratives: Russian state media continues to highlight FSB "successes" in Perm (0737Z) to reinforce the narrative of a pervasive Ukrainian sabotage threat, justifying tightened domestic controls.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Russian forces will continue the UAV-led "attrition of infrastructure," specifically targeting water and heat pumping stations during the -22°C window to maximize civilian hardship.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): Russian forces use the AA-capable Geran-2s to establish a "no-fly zone" for Ukrainian FPV relay drones and MEDEVAC helicopters in the Pokrovsk/Zaporizhzhia sectors, leading to a collapse of tactical casualty evacuation and drone-led defense.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Expect continued UAV incursions over Kyiv and Chernihiv. High probability of additional Russian territorial claims west of Pokrovsk. Emergency infrastructure repairs in Kyiv will likely be hampered by ongoing air alerts.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Geran-2 AA Variant: Urgent requirement for physical debris or IMINT of the alleged MANPAD-equipped Geran-2 to confirm launch mechanism and seeker type.
[HIGH] Grishino/Udachne Status: Verify the presence of Russian ground forces in these settlements; determine if these are reconnaissance-in-force, sabotage groups (DRG), or a mechanized breakthrough.
[MEDIUM] "Max" Messenger: Assess the technical architecture of the "Max" messenger to determine potential vulnerabilities or if it successfully mitigates current SIGINT collection methods.
