OPERATIONAL SHIFT: KUPYANSK (0704Z, Operativno ZSU, MEDIUM): Ukrainian forces have reportedly restored control over Kupyansk. Russian forces have deployed the "Rubikon" UAV unit to the sector under orders to retake lost positions.
SUCCESSFUL DEEP STRIKE BDA: ROSTOV (0710Z, Tsaplienko, HIGH): The Rostov State District Power Plant (GRES), targeted overnight, remains on fire. This confirms successful kinetic impact on Russian energy infrastructure.
TACTICAL INNOVATION: UGV CASEVAC (0703Z, 47th Mech Bde, HIGH): The 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade successfully evacuated three wounded personnel using an Unmanned Ground Vehicle (UGV/NRK), demonstrating maturing robotic logistics in high-threat environments.
KINETIC IMPACT: ODESA (0701Z, RBC-Ukraine, HIGH): Overnight strikes on Odesa destroyed one residential building and damaged five others; civilian casualties are confirmed.
ENERGY GRID DEGRADATION: CHERNIHIV (0708Z, Tsaplienko, HIGH): Damage to a "critical energy object" has resulted in power outages across multiple settlements in the region.
SABOTAGE CASE: PERM KRAI (0711Z, TASS, MEDIUM): FSB released footage of a Russian national detained for an alleged plot against a railway bridge; Russian narratives now claim the suspect acted under "scammer" or external direction.
AERIAL THREAT: KHARKIV/KYIV (0700Z-0727Z, PS ZSU, HIGH): Continued Russian aerial pressure with KAB (guided bomb) launches toward Kharkiv and UAVs (Shahed-type) detected north of Bila Tserkva.
NEW CAPABILITY RUMOR: "NIGHTFALL" MISSILE (0706Z, Operation Z citing The Sun, LOW): UNCONFIRMED reports suggest the UK is developing a new ballistic missile, "Nightfall," for Ukrainian use.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
Northern Axis: Russian forces continue to prioritize the degradation of the Ukrainian power grid, with the Chernihiv strike causing regional blackouts. UAV activity in the Kyiv region (Bila Tserkva) suggests ongoing mapping of air defense gaps.
Eastern Axis (Kupyansk): The sector has transitioned from a defensive struggle to a counter-offensive success for the UAF, though the situation remains fluid as Russia surges specialized UAV resources ("Rubikon") to regain the initiative.
Southern Axis: Odesa remains a primary target for Russian stand-off munitions. In Zaporizhzhia, non-kinetic factors (extreme weather) have left 14,000 civilians without power, complicating the humanitarian and logistical situation.
Environmental Factors: A severe cold snap (down to -22°C) is forecasted for Jan 12-14. This will likely freeze terrain, potentially increasing the mobility of mechanized units but placing extreme strain on personnel and energy infrastructure.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)
Tactical Adaptation: The deployment of the "Rubikon" UAV unit to Kupyansk indicates a Russian reliance on high-end electronic warfare and FPV integration to compensate for lost ground positions.
Strategic Rear Vulnerability: The continued fire at the Rostov GRES indicates that Russian domestic damage control and firefighting capabilities are struggling to contain the results of UAF deep strikes.
Hybrid Operations: Russian state media is focusing on domestic "sabotage" arrests in Perm to reinforce internal security narratives and justify increased surveillance.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)
Operational Success: The recapture of Kupyansk (pending full verification) represents a significant tactical reversal of recent Russian gains in the Oskil sector.
Technological Integration: The use of UGVs for CASEVAC by the 47th Brigade reduces the risk to medical personnel and suggests a shift toward automated "last-mile" logistics in contested zones.
Strategic Capability: UAF maintains the ability to strike high-value Russian energy targets (Rostov) despite heavy Russian pressure on Ukrainian domestic infrastructure.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)
Corruption Narratives: Internal Ukrainian reports regarding shelter-related corruption in Kherson (0715Z) are being monitored; if left unaddressed, these could impact local morale and Western aid confidence.
European Defense: Proposals for a 100,000-strong EU army (0707Z) reflect growing European anxiety regarding US long-term commitments, which may be exploited by Russian propaganda to signal Western disunity.
Commemoration: Ukrainian official channels are synchronized in a national "Minute of Silence" (0700Z), reinforcing social cohesion and military-civilian ties.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Russian forces will launch intensive KAB and FPV strikes in the Kupyansk sector within the next 6-12 hours to disrupt UAF consolidation. Concurrently, a new wave of UAVs will likely target the Chernihiv/Kyiv energy corridor during the forecasted temperature drop.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): Russian forces exploit the -22°C cold snap and ongoing power outages in Zaporizhzhia to launch a mechanized assault toward the H-15 highway, betting that Ukrainian thermal sensors and C2 will be degraded by the weather and energy crisis.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Expect heightened kinetic activity in the Kupyansk sector. Continued Russian long-range strikes on energy infrastructure are likely as temperatures fall, aiming to induce a systemic grid failure. Monitor for BDA on the Rostov GRES strike to determine the extent of long-term output loss.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Kupyansk Frontline: Confirm the exact extent of the UAF "restored control" and the current status of the "Rubikon" unit’s impact on operations.
[HIGH] Rostov BDA: Determine if the fire at the Rostov GRES has affected regional power distribution or industrial production in Russia's Southern Military District.
[MEDIUM] UGV Proliferation: Assess the scale of UGV deployment across other brigades to determine if CASEVAC automation is becoming a standard operational procedure.
[LOW] Nightfall Missile: Monitor UK MOD official channels for confirmation or denial of the "Nightfall" ballistic missile development.
