MASSIVE AERIAL DEFENSE (0625Z-0628Z, UAF Air Force/RBC-Ukraine, HIGH): UAF successfully intercepted/suppressed 135 out of 156 Russian UAVs (including 110 Shaheds) launched overnight. This represents a high-intensity saturation attempt aimed at depleting AD magazines.
OCCUPIED TERRITORY BLACKOUT (0608Z-0610Z, Mash na Donbasse, HIGH): Major power outages reported across the "DNR" and "almost all" of the "LNR." This suggests a systemic failure of the occupied energy grid or successful UAF interdiction of critical nodes feeding the Donbas.
TACTICAL INFILTRATION: ZAPORIZHZHIA (0605Z, Операция Z, MEDIUM): Russian "RVvoenkor" reports RU forces are "seeping" through UAF lines behind Huliaipole, allegedly exploiting infantry shortages.
GEOPOLITICAL FRICTION: SLOVAKIA AID HALT (0625Z, Colonelcassad, LOW): Reports indicate Slovakia is ceasing military aid, troop deployments, and loan guarantees to Ukraine. UNCONFIRMED; likely Russian information operation targeting Western unity.
BATTLE DAMAGE VERIFICATION: NOVOCHERKASSK GRES (0624Z, Tsaplienko, HIGH): Video evidence confirms a drone strike on the Novocherkassk State District Power Station (GRES) in Rostov. This corroborates earlier reports of a kinetic impact on Russian energy infrastructure.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
Strategic Rear (Ukraine): High-intensity drone saturation (156 units) overnight. Despite the high interception rate (86%), the sheer volume indicates a persistent effort to overwhelm the integrated air defense system (IADS).
Strategic Rear (Russia/Occupied): The occupied Donbas (LNR/DNR) is experiencing near-total grid failure. Combined with the confirmed strike on the Novocherkassk GRES (Rostov), the Russian Southern energy cluster is under severe kinetic and technical strain.
Zaporizhzhia Sector: The capture of Belogorye (reported 11 JAN) is being followed by Russian "infiltration" tactics toward Huliaipole. Russian forces are attempting to bypass static defenses rather than conduct frontal assaults.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)
Tactical Shift: Russian forces are shifting from "meat assaults" to "seeping" (infiltration) tactics in the Huliaipole direction (0605Z, Операция Z). This suggests a pivot to exploit gaps in UAF manpower rather than relying on massed mechanized columns.
Logistics/Energy: The widespread blackouts in LNR/DNR indicate that Russian logistics and sustainment in the East are now vulnerable to secondary effects of infrastructure strikes.
Capabilities: Russia maintains the ability to launch 150+ UAVs in a single night despite reported weather constraints in the Moscow region.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)
Air Defense: UAF AD remains highly effective (135/156 targets neutralized). However, the use of 110 Shaheds suggests a "magazine depth" challenge for UAF SHORAD and EW units.
Tactical Constraints: Reporting from Russian sources (0605Z, Операция Z) claims UAF is suffering from infantry shortages behind Huliaipole. While potentially propaganda, it aligns with the "DEFENSIVE BREACH" noted in the 11 JAN Daily Report.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)
Atrocity Propaganda: Russian channels (Kotsnews, 0600Z) are circulating fabricated testimonials from an alleged Dutch mercenary "Hendrik" regarding atrocities. This is a classic "reflexive control" tactic to delegitimize the International Legion.
Geopolitical Wedge: The claim regarding Slovakia (Colonelcassad, 0625Z) is likely timed to coincide with the kinetic pressure on Kyiv to maximize the perception of Ukrainian isolation.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RU forces will attempt to consolidate the "infiltrated" positions behind Huliaipole to threaten the T0803 highway. Aerial attacks will likely transition from UAV saturation to targeted missile strikes on the "stranded" rail segments identified in the 11 JAN report.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A synchronized push from the 49th CAA HQ (Zaporizhzhia) toward the H-15 highway, utilizing the power outages in the East to mask troop movements and disrupt UAF C2 relay points that may lack backup power.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Expect continued tactical instability in the Huliaipole-Belogorye sector. The massive drone wave likely served as a precursor to a follow-on missile strike or a major ground push in Zaporizhzhia. Monitor LNR/DNR for civil unrest or logistical paralysis following the total grid failure.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Huliaipole Perimeter: Verify the depth of Russian "infiltration" behind Huliaipole; confirm if the H-15 or T0803 highways are under direct fire control.
[HIGH] Grid Attribution: Determine if the LNR/DNR blackouts are due to UAF cyber/kinetic action or a cascading failure from the Novocherkassk GRES strike.
[MEDIUM] Slovakian Policy: Cross-reference "Slovakian aid halt" reports with official EU/Bratislava statements to determine if this is a shift in policy or a disinformation spike.
