KINETIC STRIKE: KYIV AERIAL ASSAULT (0559Z, RBK-Ukraine/Klitschko, HIGH): Mayor Klitschko confirms a Russian aerial attack on Kyiv. This validates the Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA) predicted in the 11 JAN daily report.
DEEP STRIKE: NOVOCHERKASSK GRES (0537Z, STERNENKO, MEDIUM): Ukrainian drones successfully targeted the Novocherkassk State District Power Station (GRES) in Rostov Oblast. Video evidence supports kinetic impact on critical energy infrastructure.
LOGISTICAL DISRUPTION: OLENEGORSK OIL DEPOT (0531Z, ASTRA, MEDIUM): A spill of 80 tons of AI-95 gasoline reported at an oil depot in the Murmansk Oblast. While the cause is not explicitly stated as a strike, its location near strategic Northern Fleet assets makes it a significant logistical event.
TACTICAL FRICTION: KONSTANTINOVKA SECTOR (0555Z, TASS/RU MoD, MEDIUM): Russian Southern Group forces claim to have disrupted a UAF rotation and destroyed a supply depot. This indicates intensified Russian pressure on the flanks of the Bakhmut/Chasiv Yar operational area.
HYBRID OPS: TRUMP/VENEZUELA DISINFORMATION (0540Z, Операция Z, LOW): Pro-Russian channels are disseminating fabricated content regarding Donald Trump and Venezuela. This appears to be a coordinated effort to saturate the information space with "noise" during active kinetic operations.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
Strategic Rear (Ukraine): Kyiv is currently under engagement. This follows the 11 JAN SOF strike on Caspian Sea platforms, confirming a cycle of high-value retaliatory strikes.
Strategic Rear (Russia): The AOR for UAF deep strikes has expanded to include the Rostov energy sector (Novocherkassk) and potentially the extreme north (Murmansk).
Eastern Sector: Russian forces are focusing on interdicting UAF rotations in the Konstantinovka direction, likely aiming to exploit perceived logistical weaknesses reported in the previous 24h.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)
Tactical Focus: The RU Southern Group of Forces is prioritizing "rotation interdiction," suggesting a shift toward high-tempo attrition of UAF manpower during vulnerable transit phases.
Capabilities: Despite heavy snowfall in central Russia (Moscow region), RU Strategic Aviation successfully executed the predicted strike on Kyiv, demonstrating weather-resilient C2 for long-range precision fires.
Logistics: The 80-ton spill in Olenegorsk (Murmansk) may indicate internal Russian infrastructure fragility or successful UAF long-range sabotage, potentially affecting fuel supplies for Northern Fleet aviation or logistics.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)
Resilience: UAF air defenses are currently active over Kyiv.
Offensive reach: UAF continues to demonstrate a multi-axis deep strike capability, hitting energy (Rostov) and potentially fuel (Murmansk) targets simultaneously with the ongoing Caspian Sea engagement effects.
Defensive Posture: In the Kryvyi Rih and Nikopol districts, the situation remains "controlled" despite proximity to the Zaporizhzhia breach (Belogorye), suggesting UAF has stabilized the immediate rear of the Southern front (0535Z, Vilkul).
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)
Diversionary Narratives: The surge in fabricated international political news (Trump/Venezuela) is likely intended to distract Western and domestic audiences from the successful UAF strikes on Russian energy infrastructure (Caspian/Rostov).
Domestic Resilience: Ukrainian regional reporting (Kryvyi Rih) remains focused on stability to counter Russian "breakthrough" panic narratives.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Russian forces will continue the aerial bombardment of Kyiv and major energy nodes for the next 6-12 hours to maximize "revenge" optics for the Caspian strikes. Concurrently, ground forces in the East will intensify "spoiling attacks" on UAF rotations.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): Leveraging the disruption in Kyiv, RU forces exploit the previously reported "anti-drone screen collapse" in Zaporizhzhia to launch a mechanized thrust from Belogorye toward the H-15 highway while UAF EW assets are distracted by the capital's defense.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
High probability of continued missile/drone arrivals in Kyiv and Central Ukraine. Expect Russian MoD to amplify claims of tactical successes in the Konstantinovka and Vremyevka sectors to mask the impact of the Novocherkassk GRES strike.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] BDA Kyiv: Assess damage to energy and C2 nodes in the capital following the 0559Z strike.
[HIGH] Olenegorsk Attribution: Determine if the Murmansk oil spill was caused by a long-range UAV, sabotage, or technical failure.
[MEDIUM] Rotation Impact: Verify the extent of UAF losses in the Konstantinovka direction; confirm if the "depot" mentioned by TASS was a localized tactical point or a significant operational hub.
