Situation Update (1830Z 11 JAN 2026)
Key updates since last sitrep
- NORTHERN AXIS: INFRASTRUCTURE ATTACK IN RIVNE (1805Z, RBK-Ukraine/OVA, HIGH): Confirmed Russian strikes on infrastructure in the northern districts of Rivne region. Impact assessment is ongoing.
- AERIAL THREAT: ZHYTOMYR PENETRATION (1825Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Strike UAV detected in eastern Zhytomyr region, currently on a vector toward Zhytomyr city.
- ZAPORIZHZHIA: CIVILIAN CASUALTY IN VILNYANSK (1804Z, ASTRA, HIGH): A drone attack on Vilnyansk has resulted in at least one confirmed civilian fatality.
- ENEMY STATUS: IRREGULAR UNIT ATTRITION (1802Z, Butusov Plus/Rusich, MEDIUM): Intelligence indicates significant personnel "disappearance" or attrition within the pro-Russian "Rusich" DRG unit, suggesting high combat losses or desertion.
- REGIONAL INSTABILITY: AZERBAIJAN POLITICAL PURGE (1814Z, Rybar, MEDIUM): Reports of a massive political purge in Azerbaijan targeting former officials; potentially impacts regional security dynamics and Russian attention in the Caucasus.
- IO ALERT: SENSATIONAL DISINFORMATION (1813Z, Alex Parker, LOW): Claims regarding US Senator Lindsey Graham promising "help" to Iran and threatening Cuba are assessed as DISINFORMATION/SATIRE intended to sow confusion regarding US foreign policy.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is characterized by an expansion of the RF drone campaign into the Western/Northern corridors (Rivne, Zhytomyr). While the previous report focused on the Kyiv/Sumy axes, the 1805Z update confirms that RF is now targeting infrastructure in Rivne, likely attempting to disrupt the western energy bridge and rail logistics.
Extreme weather (-22°C) continues to dictate the pace of operations. President Zelenskyy has confirmed that government efforts are entirely focused on regional energy recovery and heating (1806Z). Tactically, the RF continues to utilize high-volume drone strikes to harass rear areas, specifically targeting municipal centers like Vilnyansk and Zhytomyr.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities & Intentions
- Infrastructure Attrition: The shift toward Rivne (1805Z, 1820Z) indicates a widening of the "freeze-out" campaign. By hitting northern Rivne, RF aims to sever energy synchronization with the western border regions.
- Drone Operations: RF MoD is actively promoting "trophy" footage from Unmanned System Forces (1818Z), signaling a continued reliance on FPV and strike UAVs to compensate for mechanized limitations in the freeze.
- Internal Friction: Evidence from pro-RU "Rusich" channels (1802Z) and frontline bloggers (1806Z) suggests a high psychological and physical toll on RF personnel, with reports of "sweat, blood, and nerves" masking significant attrition in "liberated" sectors.
Logistics and Sustainment
- Equipment Gaps: Continued pro-Russian fundraising for "frontline armor" (1820Z) confirms that state-level logistics are failing to provide adequate protection for irregular and volunteer units.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Posture & Readiness
- Strategic Communications: President Zelenskyy’s evening address emphasized "constructive" timelines for negotiations with the US (1815Z), signaling a push for long-term security guarantees despite immediate tactical pressure.
- Energy Resilience: Civil-military coordination is prioritized for "recovery work, electricity, and heating" (1806Z). The UAF is providing overwatch for critical repair crews in regions like Rivne.
- Defensive Air Measures: UAF Air Force remains highly active in tracking UAV vectors toward Zhytomyr (1825Z), maintaining a high state of alert for SHORAD units.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Cognitive Domain
- Historical Parallelism: Ukrainian leadership is framing the current conflict duration against the Soviet-Nazi war (1815Z) to bolster domestic morale and emphasize the existential nature of the defense.
- RF Digital Control: Russia is reportedly tightening internet surveillance and messaging control (1827Z), likely to suppress domestic reporting on high attrition and elite disappearances (e.g., the missing Uralkali ex-CEO in Cyprus, 1817Z).
- Disinformation Patterns: Sensationalist RU channels are using parody and fake US policy statements (Graham/Iran/Cuba) to distract from the strategic humiliation of recent SOF strikes in the Caspian.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA)
Over the next 6-12 hours, RF will continue the UAV vector toward Zhytomyr and Kyiv to maintain pressure on the grid. The strikes in Rivne suggest a follow-up wave of missiles or heavy UAVs targeting the Sarny/Rivne rail junction to exploit the existing 60-train delay noted in the 1500Z report.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA)
RF utilizes the distraction of the Azerbaijan political crisis and the "simulated" strike narratives (1821Z) to launch a coordinated Kinhal/Iskander strike on the Zhytomyr energy hub while the city is under UAV-induced blackout. This would cause a total failure of the heating grid during the night's lowest temperatures, triggering a humanitarian emergency.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
- Rivne Damage Assessment: Specific BDA for the "northern infrastructure" hits (1805Z). Is this power generation or rail-related?
- Azerbaijan Impact: Monitor for shifts in RF "Peacekeeping" forces in the Caucasus. Any withdrawal would indicate an urgent need for reserves on the Ukrainian Southern Axis.
- Zhytomyr UAV Specs: Identify if the current UAV heading for Zhytomyr (1825Z) is a standard Shahed-136 or the new "Molniya" swarm variant to adjust EW responses.
//END OF REPORT//
