Situation Update (1800Z 11 JAN 2026)
Key updates since last sitrep
- AIR DEFENSE: "RAVEN" HYBRID SYSTEM OPERATIONAL (1739Z, 96th AA Bde, HIGH): The 96th Anti-Aircraft Missile Kyiv Brigade has confirmed the successful combat deployment of the British-supplied "Raven" hybrid AD system against RF drones.
- AERIAL THREAT: BUCHA & SUMY PENETRATION (1750Z/1753Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Strike UAVs have entered Bucha district (Kyiv region) on a SW course and Sumy region heading toward Shostka.
- STRATEGIC RUMOR: "NIGHTFALL" BALLISTIC MISSILES (1736Z, Daily Mail/Tsaplienko, LOW): Reports suggest the UK is preparing "Nightfall" ballistic missiles for Ukraine with range capabilities to Moscow. This remains UNCONFIRMED and is likely a strategic leak or information operation.
- INFRASTRUCTURE: RESIDENTIAL GENERATOR DEPLOYMENT (1759Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): State Emergency Services (DSNS) have begun installing large-scale generators at residential buildings in Kyiv to maintain critical heating/power during the -22°C freeze.
- LOGISTICS: GDAŃSK AIRPORT DISRUPTIONS (1739Z, RBK-Ukraine, MEDIUM): Dozens of flights diverted or cancelled at Gdańsk Airport, Poland. While potentially weather-related, it impacts the primary logistics hub for Western aid.
- DIPLOMATIC: ARGENTINE PRESIDENTIAL VISIT (1748Z, RBK-Ukraine, MEDIUM): President Javier Milei has signaled intent to visit Ukraine, indicating a potential shift in South American diplomatic and material support.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment remains dominated by extreme sub-zero temperatures (-22°C) and a multi-axis RF drone campaign. The "Dual-Front Crisis" noted in the 1730Z report has intensified as RF UAVs penetrate the Bucha and Shostka sectors (1750Z, 1753Z). In the rear, the battle for infrastructure has shifted from grid repair to localized survival, with the DSNS now bypassing damaged substations to power residential blocks directly via generators.
Weather-induced logistical friction is expanding; beyond the Lviv snow emergency, Kryvyi Rih is now implementing emergency snow removal protocols to maintain GLOCs (1747Z), and the Gdańsk air hub is experiencing significant disruptions (1739Z).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities & Intentions
- Drone Saturation: RF continues to utilize high-frequency UAV sorties (Shahed/Geran) to map the effectiveness of newly deployed Ukrainian SHORAD. The targeting of Bucha suggests a continued effort to find gaps in the Kyiv "ring" defense.
- Hybrid Influence Operations: RF channels are aggressively amplifying a narrative featuring a purported Dutch mercenary claiming UAF atrocities (1758Z). This is a clear "Information Counter-Attack" intended to neutralize the negative PR from the Caspian platform strikes and the confirmed presence of African mercenaries in RF ranks.
- Strategic Distraction: RF diplomatic proxies (via TASS, 1732Z) are attempting to sow discord between the UK government and the incoming US administration, likely to complicate the delivery of advanced systems like the rumored "Nightfall."
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Posture & Readiness
- Technological Integration: The confirmed success of the "Raven" system (1739Z) provides a critical counter to the "Molniya" swarm threat. Combined with the previously noted "Tempest" V2X system, UAF is successfully creating a tiered, multi-national SHORAD envelope.
- Civil-Military Coordination: In Kryvyi Rih, the Council of Defense is enforcing strict "Rules of Improvement" for businesses to ensure road and sidewalk clearing (1747Z), highlighting the priority placed on maintaining mobility during the freeze.
- Resource Mobilization: Community-level fundraising continues (e.g., Sternenko's raffle, 1731Z), but remains under pressure from the broader economic strain of the energy crisis.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Multi-Domain Influence
- Escalation Signaling: The "Nightfall" missile report (1736Z), even if unconfirmed, serves as a powerful deterrent signal. It forces RF planners to consider the vulnerability of Moscow, potentially forcing a reallocation of AD assets away from the front lines.
- Iranian Instability: Graphic evidence from Tehran (1748Z) corroborates a deepening domestic crisis for Russia’s primary UAV supplier. UAF channels are effectively using this to signal a looming "Shahed" supply bottleneck.
- Propaganda Deflection: RF state media is focusing on domestic UK politics (1732Z) and celebrity scandals (1736Z) to distract from the strategic humiliation of the Caspian Sea strikes.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA)
Over the next 6 hours, RF strike UAVs currently in the air (Sumy/Kyiv axes) will conduct a coordinated strike on Shostka's industrial base and Kyiv's western pumping stations. The goal is to maximize the kinetic impact of the deep freeze by causing catastrophic pipe failures in the Bucha/Vyshhorod corridor.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA)
RF exploits the logistical disruption at Gdańsk Airport and the rail delays in Zaporizhzhia to launch a synchronized "logistical decapitation." This would involve a heavy missile strike on the Rzeszów-Lviv rail hub while UAF AD is distracted by UAV swarms over Kyiv, effectively cutting off the western ammunition flow during the peak of the Southern Axis offensive.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
- "Nightfall" Verification: Urgently require HUMINT or diplomatic confirmation regarding the UK's "Nightfall" missile transfer. Is this a physical delivery or a conceptual deterrent?
- Gdańsk Disruption Cause: Determine if the flight diversions in Poland are solely weather-related or the result of RF electronic warfare (GPS jamming) emanating from Kaliningrad.
- Raven Capability: Request BDA from the 96th Brigade to determine the "Raven" system's kill-ratio specifically against the "Molniya" swarms vs. traditional Shahed UAVs.
//END OF REPORT//
