TERRITORIAL LOSS: BELOGORYE, ZAPORIZHZHIA (0926Z, TASS/RU MOD, MEDIUM): Russian Ministry of Defense claims the "liberation" (capture) of Belogorye. This indicates an expansion of the Russian offensive in the Zaporizhzhia sector toward Huliaipole.
INFRASTRUCTURE CRISIS: KYIV HEAT LOSS (0902Z, Klitschko/RBC-UA, HIGH): Over 1,000 residential buildings in Kyiv remain without heat despite partial power restoration, highlighting the failure of thermal utility networks following kinetic strikes and extreme cold.
AERIAL THREAT: GERAN-5 DEPLOYMENT (0915Z, Voenkor Kotenok, MEDIUM): RU sources, citing Ukrainian GUR, confirm the first operational use of the "Geran-5" heavy strike UAV. This corroborates technical data from 0835Z regarding a larger airframe (6m length).
TACTICAL ADVANCE: DOBROPILLYA SALIENT (0905Z, Dnevnik Desantnika, LOW):UNCONFIRMED reports suggest Russian tactical advances on the northern flank of the Dobropillya salient (Southwest of Toretsk).
AIR OPERATIONS: KAB SALVOS (0911Z-0915Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Active Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) launches confirmed targeting both Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia regions.
INBOUND STRIKE: KYIV AXIS (0917Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): At least one UAV is transiting western Chernihiv on a direct flight path toward the Kyiv region.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment has deteriorated in the Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia), where Russian forces appear to be successfully expanding their bridgehead. In the rear, the "energy war" has transitioned into a "heating crisis" for Kyiv, as the grid remains too fragile to support localized heating infrastructure.
Battlefield Geometry: The capture of Belogorye (if confirmed) places Russian forces in a position to flank UAF defenses east of Orikhiv. In the Donbas, the focus is shifting toward the Dobropillya salient, likely intended to threaten UAF logistics hubs.
Weather and Environment: Sub-zero temperatures continue to exacerbate the impact of infrastructure strikes. The 1,000+ buildings without heat in Kyiv represent a significant humanitarian and morale challenge.
Force Disposition: RF is increasingly utilizing high-precision assets (Krasnopol, KABs) to degrade UAF temporary deployment points (PVDs), as seen in Zaliznychne (0900Z).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Zaporizhzhia Offensive: The Russian Group of Forces "Vostok" (including the 5th Army and 57th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade) is maintaining high momentum. The strike on a UAF PVD in Zaliznychne (0900Z) suggests effective reconnaissance-strike loops using tactical UAVs.
Geran-5 Integration: The confirmed use of the Geran-5 (0915Z) marks a shift in RF long-range strike doctrine. This larger platform likely offers higher survivability against current UAF SHORAD (Short-Range Air Defense) optimized for smaller Shahed-136/Geran-2 profiles.
Course of Action (KAB Saturation): Simultaneous KAB launches in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia (0911Z-0915Z) are designed to fix UAF reserves and prevent the shifting of mobile air defense assets to protect the Kyiv energy hub.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Infrastructure Defense: Repair crews (DTEK/Regional authorities) are working "around the clock" (0900Z) but are struggling with the scale of the damage to heat-distribution nodes.
Air Defense: UAF Air Force is actively tracking multi-vector threats (UAVs from Chernihiv, KABs in the south). The interception of ballistic targets in Kharkiv (reported 1456Z yesterday) remains a critical but high-expenditure capability.
Tactical Resilience: Despite RF claims in Belogorye, UAF drone units (e.g., Sternenko’s sponsored units, 0919Z) continue to conduct attrition warfare, though fundraising and resupply for these units are reportedly slowing.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
Strategic Distraction: Russian media is heavily amplifying UK Defense Secretary John Healey's hypothetical comments about "kidnapping Putin" (0902Z-0925Z) to frame Western leadership as "unhinged" or "terroristic" to domestic audiences.
Supplier Instability: Continued monitoring of the Iran internet blackout (60+ hours) and reports of US strike options against Iran (0900Z) are being tracked by RF sources (Astra, Basurin) as a potential threat to the RF-Iran "Shahed" supply chain.
Domestic Control: The promotion of ASTRA VPN (0906Z) highlights the ongoing struggle for information control within the RF domestic space amidst increased state censorship.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue KAB saturation of the Zaporizhzhia front to consolidate gains in the Belogorye-Zaliznychne sector, while using the inbound UAV swarm from Chernihiv to force UAF to deplete AD magazines over Kyiv.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF exploits the heating crisis in Kyiv by launching a massive "Geran-5" strike specifically targeting the last functional pumping stations or boiler houses, aiming to trigger a mass evacuation of the capital during the current cold snap.
Tactical Forecast: Expect intensified Russian pressure on the northern flank of the Dobropillya salient; if RF secures high ground there, UAF logistics for the entire South Donbas sector will be under direct fire control.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Status of Belogorye: Independent verification (GEOINT/UAF Official) of Russian presence in central Belogorye to confirm the extent of the breakthrough.
Geran-5 Payload: Recovery of debris from the first Geran-5 strikes is required to determine the warhead type (Thermobaric vs. Penetrator).
Dobropillya Disposition: Clarify the "northern flank" advance mentioned by RU milbloggers; identify specific UAF units currently holding the screening line.
7. RECOMMENDATIONS
Thermal Protection: Prioritize the delivery of industrial-grade generators and localized heating units to Kyiv residential districts immediately; electrical restoration is insufficient if thermal pipes freeze.
Zaporizhzhia Reinforcement: Shift tactical reserves to the Huliaipole-Orikhiv axis to prevent Russian forces from exploiting the capture of Belogorye to bypass established UAF trench lines.
Counter-UAV Maneuver: Deploy mobile fire groups to the western Chernihiv-Kyiv corridor to intercept inbound UAVs (0917Z) before they reach the metropolitan area.
