UAF DEEP STRIKE OPERATIONS (1743Z, ASTRA/MoD Russia, HIGH): At least 10 Ukrainian UAVs were intercepted over six Russian regions (including Bryansk) in a 4-hour window, indicating a coordinated multi-axis harassment of the RF rear.
KYIV ENERGY RESTORATION (1748Z, RBC-Ukraine/MinEnergo, HIGH): Power has been restored to Kyiv, transitioning from emergency shutdowns to planned stabilization schedules. DTEK reports restoration for 1.8M households (1752Z).
INDICATORS OF STRATEGIC STRIKE PREPARATION (1741Z, Operatsiya Z, MEDIUM): Pro-Russian sources report RF preparations for a massive coordinated strike involving strategic aviation and ballistic assets.
NORTHERN UAV THREAT PERSISTS (1749Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): A Russian UAV is currently transiting southwest Chernihiv Oblast on a heading toward Kyiv Oblast.
ZAPORIZHZHIA KINETIC ACTIVITY (1731Z, WarGonzo, MEDIUM): Russian drone units are reportedly striking defensive positions in the vicinity of Orikhiv.
POKROVSK SECTOR CASUALTIES (1756Z, Butusov Plus, MEDIUM): Confirmed FPV strike on a foreign national (identified as an "African mercenary") fighting for RF forces on the Pokrovsk axis.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Chernihiv/Kyiv/Bryansk)
Chernihiv/Kyiv: The UAV penetration noted at 1715Z has progressed; the latest track shows assets moving from southwest Chernihiv toward the Kyiv Oblast border (1749Z). This maintains pressure on AD batteries currently protecting the capital’s stabilizing energy grid.
Russian Rear (Bryansk): RF AD activity is confirmed over Bryansk (1740Z). The breadth of the UAF drone wave (targeting 6 regions) suggests a SEAD/maskirova mission to fix RF AD assets away from the front lines.
Eastern Sector (Donbas)
Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) Axis: High-intensity attrition continues. RF sources are attempting to flood the information space with claims of high UAF casualties and abandoned positions (1743Z, UNCONFIRMED). Conversely, UAF visual evidence confirms the continued use of FPV drones to interdict RF infantry, including foreign contract soldiers (1756Z).
Weather Factor: Russian MoD footage confirms operations are being conducted under heavy snow and sub-zero temperatures, which is likely degrading RF logistical throughput but not halting UAV sorties (1731Z).
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia)
Orikhiv: Reported intensification of RF drone strikes (1731Z). This may indicate a localized effort to soften UAF forward edges of the battle area (FEBA) ahead of a larger tactical push or to prevent UAF counter-battery fire from supporting the Huliaipole/Zelene sector.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Strategic Aviation: Preparation for a "massive strike" (1741Z) aligns with the MLCOA from previous reports. Expect a synchronized launch of Tu-95MS/Tu-160 assets coordinated with Iskander-M/K launches from border regions to overwhelm the newly identified AD battery in Kharkiv and the stabilizing grid in Kyiv.
Manpower Trends: The presence of African nationals in the Pokrovsk sector (1756Z) corroborates earlier intelligence regarding RF's reliance on "international" contract personnel to offset high domestic attrition rates.
Information Warfare: RF sources (Colonelcassad) are increasing the volume of "POW testimony" narratives to demoralize UAF forces in the Donbas.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Counter-Logistics: UAF continues to demonstrate the ability to penetrate deep into RF airspace (6 regions), likely targeting fuel and AD infrastructure to further degrade the Russian oil production, which is already reported down significantly in December due to drone strikes (1744Z, Bloomberg/Sternenko).
Grid Stabilization: Energy workers (DTEK) have successfully countered the "energy terror" campaign in the short term, restoring power to the capital despite ongoing kinetic threats (1741Z, 1752Z).
Information environment / disinformation
"Abandoned Bodies" Narrative: RF channels are circulating claims of UAF abandoning deceased personnel (1743Z). This is a standard RU psychological operation aimed at eroding Ukrainian trust in command-and-control.
Olympic Polling: RF state-aligned channels are polling public sentiment on the 2026 Winter Olympics (1733Z), attempting to leverage sports nationalism to maintain domestic morale amid infrastructure failures.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: A massive strategic strike (Aviation + Ballistic) remains highly likely between 0200Z and 0600Z on Jan 11. Current UAV activity in Chernihiv is likely the precursor/decoy phase.
MDCOA: RF may attempt a breakout in the Orikhiv sector (Zaporizhzhia) utilizing the drone saturation reported at 1731Z to fix UAF reserves.
Weather: Continued snow and freezing temperatures will increase the difficulty of energy grid repairs if a new strike occurs overnight.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Strategic Aviation Basing: Confirm status and activity levels at Engels-2 and Olenya airbases to verify "massive strike" preparations (1741Z).
Foreign Fighter Proliferation: Identify the specific RF units utilizing foreign nationals in the Pokrovsk sector to determine if these are consolidated "International Legions" or individual contractors embedded in regular units.
Orikhiv Disposition: Seek IMINT on RF armored concentrations near Orikhiv to confirm if drone strikes (1731Z) are preparatory for an assault.
//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//
KYIV AD DISPOSITION: Maintain HIGH alert for AD units in the Kyiv/Chernihiv corridor. The current UAV (1749Z) is likely a pathfinder or electronic intelligence (ELINT) asset mapping AD responses ahead of the anticipated strategic strike.
POKROVSK OPERATIONAL SECURITY (OPSEC): Reiterate strict COMSEC and displacement protocols for the 30th Mechanized Brigade and adjacent units following RF claims of "abandoned" positions. Counter the RF narrative with verified footage of stabilized defensive lines.
LOGISTICS HARDENING: Ensure all mobile generators in Kyiv are fueled and ready (DTEK, 1752Z). The grid is currently stable but highly vulnerable to the "second wave" strike predicted for the early morning hours.
