UAF INTERDICTION OF RUSSIAN CONVOY (1721Z, Operativno ZSU, HIGH): Pilots from the Ukrainian 155th OMBr (Mechanized Brigade) successfully struck a Russian vehicle convoy moving under "gray" (pre-dawn) conditions in the Pokrovsk direction.
NORTHERN UAV INTRUSION (1715Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Russian UAVs are currently transiting Chernihiv Oblast, targeting the Olyshivka, Baturyn, Nizhyn, and Nosivka axes.
ALLEGED SUMY FRONTLINE ACTIVATION (1711Z, Arkhangel Spetsnaz, LOW): Pro-Russian sources claim an "activation" of RF offensive operations along the Sumy border. UNCONFIRMED.
KHERSON AMPHIBIOUS INTERDICTION (1704Z, Hayabusa, MEDIUM): UAF forces report successful neutralisation of an RF squad attempting a boat crossing from the Left (East) Bank to the Right (West) Bank of the Dnipro.
STRATEGIC SANCTIONS COORDINATION (1702Z, Zaporizhzhia ODA/Zelenskyy, HIGH): President Zelenskyy and GUR Chief Budanov have finalized plans to accelerate the synchronization of international sanctions, specifically targeting the Russian defense supply chain.
RF TACTICAL AD DEFICITS (1704Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Prominent RF mil-bloggers have launched urgent fundraising for "mobile AD groups," indicating a lack of standardized, state-issued equipment for countering UAF tactical drones.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Sumy/Chernihiv)
Sumy/Chernihiv: The reporting of "activation" by RF Spetsnaz sources (1711Z), combined with the deep UAV penetration toward Nizhyn and Nosivka (1715Z), suggests a coordinated effort to fix UAF forces in the north. The UAV flight paths specifically threaten rail and road hubs connecting Kyiv to the eastern front.
Kharkiv: No significant change since the 1456Z ballistic interception, but the area remains under high alert for retaliatory saturation strikes.
Eastern Sector (Donbas)
Pokrovsk Axis: UAF 155th OMBr demonstrated high proficiency in night/low-light drone operations, interdicting an RF convoy before dawn (1721Z). This indicates UAF is successfully utilizing thermal/night-vision capable UAVs to counter RF attempts at "gray zone" rotations.
Lyman Axis: High-intensity attrition continues; RF continues to push under-trained personnel into the sector following the RPG-7 "crash course" training noted in the previous report (1637Z).
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson)
Kherson: RF attempts to establish a presence on the Right Bank via small-unit amphibious crossings persist but remain unsuccessful (1704Z). UAF drone surveillance of the Dnipro remains the primary deterrent.
Zaporizhzhia: Kinetic activity continues near Prymor'ske. RF sources (1722Z) claim active counter-drone measures, suggesting UAF UAV pressure in this sector is significantly hindering RF tactical mobility.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Targeting Shift (Agricultural Infrastructure): RF command appears to be prioritizing the destruction of Ukrainian agro-export infrastructure (oil tanks/storage) to maximize long-term economic damage (1718Z). This coincides with winter "energy terror" to create a dual-front economic crisis.
Logistical Constraints: The reliance on crowdfunding for mobile air defense (1704Z) suggests the RF Ministry of Defense is struggling to provide organic SHORAD (Short Range Air Defense) for rear-area or logistics units, leaving them highly vulnerable to UAF "Baba Yaga" and FPV drones.
Hybrid Operations: Ongoing diplomatic maneuvers regarding Iran (1711Z) and Venezuela (1711Z) indicate RF is attempting to leverage its "axis of resistance" partners to distract Western intelligence and maritime assets.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Force Employment: The deployment and successful action of the 155th OMBr in Pokrovsk (1721Z) indicates that newly formed or refitted brigades are being committed to stabilize the most critical sectors of the Donbas.
Strategic Policy: Ukraine is pivoting toward a "Total Sanctions" model, with GUR taking a lead role in identifying the specific Western components allowing RF drones and missiles to function (1702Z).
Information environment / disinformation
RF Domestic Suppression: The fining of major bookstore chains for "sexual anarchism" (1721Z) indicates a tightening of domestic social control in Russia, likely aimed at identifying "ideological dissidents" who may be prone to supporting anti-war movements.
Narrative Warfare: Pro-Russian channels are attempting to frame UAF strikes on oil/agro-infrastructure as "correct" and "delayed" (1718Z), preparing the RF public for a sustained campaign against civilian economic targets.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued UAV harassment in Chernihiv/Kyiv oblasts to exhaust AD magazines before a possible early-morning ballistic or cruise missile salvo (timed for 0400Z-0600Z).
MDCOA: RF "activation" in Sumy (1711Z) could manifest as a limited cross-border raid by Spetsnaz units to seize a symbolic settlement or disrupt the H-07 highway.
Logistics: Expect emergency power measures on Jan 11 to begin impacting UAF rail logistics in the late evening hours.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Sumy Border Disposition: Urgent need for SIGINT/IMINT of the Sumy-Kursk border to confirm or deny the "activation" reported by RF sources (1711Z). Identify if this is a troop buildup or an information operation.
155th OMBr Status: Assess the combat readiness and ammunition levels of the 155th OMBr following the Pokrovsk engagement to determine if they can sustain defensive operations in that sector.
UAV Payloads: Determine if the UAVs currently over Chernihiv (1715Z) are standard Shaheds or the newer, thermite-equipped "Geran" variants designed for infrastructure fires.
//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//
NORTHERN AIR DEFENSE: Reprioritize Mobile Fire Groups (MFG) to the Nizhyn/Nosivka corridor immediately (1715Z). These UAVs are likely bypasses for Kyiv's main AD umbrella, targeting secondary substations.
COUNTER-AMPHIBIOUS OPS (KHERSON): Maintain 24/7 UAV "thermal watch" over the Dnipro narrows. The RF "contractors" (1704Z) are likely probing for gaps in UAF drone coverage to establish a permanent Right Bank foothold.
AGRO-INFRASTRUCTURE HARDENING: Issue an immediate advisory to agricultural operators in Poltava and Odesa to empty or camouflage vegetable oil reservoirs and silos, as RF has explicitly signaled these as priority targets (1718Z).
