NATIONWIDE POWER RESTRICTIONS MANDATED (1633Z, RBK-UA, HIGH): Ukrenergo has announced that tomorrow, January 11, power outage schedules and capacity limits will be applied across all regions of Ukraine. This follows the cumulative damage to energy infrastructure noted in previous reports.
KRYVYI RIH ENERGY RECOVERY (1636Z, Vilkul/RBK-UA, HIGH): Significant progress in disaster recovery; 90% of the 45,000 subscribers disconnected after the TPP strike have had power restored. Approximately 4,500 remain without electricity.
ZNPP LOCAL TRUCE PROPOSAL (1638Z, Operatsiya Z, UNCONFIRMED/MEDIUM): IAEA has reportedly initiated consultations with both Ukraine and Russia regarding a "local truce" specifically to repair the damaged backup power line at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
RF REPLENISHMENT IN LYMAN SECTOR (1637Z, Dva Mayora, MEDIUM): Specialized RPG-7 training materials are being distributed to new personnel in the Krasnolimanskoye (Lyman) direction, suggesting a recent influx of mobilized or replacement troops to this axis.
UAF TACTICAL SUCCESS IN DOBROPILLYA (1639Z, Nikolaevsky Vanek, MEDIUM): Units of the "Azov" brigade have captured at least three Russian prisoners in the Dobropillya direction, indicating active UAF counter-probing or successful defensive ambushes in the sector.
NORTHERN UAV THREAT (1641Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Russian UAVs have been detected entering northern Sumy Oblast, maintaining a heading toward Chernihiv Oblast.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Kupiansk/Sumy)
Vovchansk: Sustained military activity reported (1645Z). Fighting likely remains centered on the "Zavody 2-e" industrial zone to secure hard cover during the current cold snap.
Kupiansk: RF sources continue to emphasize the neutralization of UAF "symbolic" operations (1647Z), confirming the high density of RF FPV surveillance over the city administration building.
Sumy/Chernihiv: A new UAV axis has opened from northern Sumy toward Chernihiv (1641Z), likely targeting regional electrical substations to exacerbate the grid instability announced for Jan 11.
Eastern Sector (Donbas)
Lyman (Krasnolimanskoye) Axis: Evidence of force replenishment. The appearance of basic instructional guides for RPG-7 use (1637Z) suggests the arrival of personnel with lower technical proficiency, potentially filling gaps left by high attrition in recent weeks.
Dobropillya Axis: High-intensity localized engagements. The capture of prisoners by Azov (1639Z) confirms UAF is maintaining an active defense and successfully exploiting RF tactical errors during assault maneuvers.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kryvyi Rih)
Kryvyi Rih: Successful stabilization of the local grid (1636Z) provides a brief operational window to reinforce TPP defenses before the next predicted strike wave.
ZNPP (Enerhodar): The IAEA's push for a local truce (1638Z) indicates the backup power situation is critical. If a truce is reached, it may serve as a de facto freeze of the frontline in the immediate vicinity of the plant.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Training & Manpower: RF is prioritizing the rapid integration of new troops in the Lyman direction (1637Z). Expect high-volume, low-complexity infantry "meat" assaults to continue as these units are committed to the line.
Deep Strike Strategy: The transit of UAVs toward Chernihiv (1641Z) and the continued air danger in Lipetsk (1650Z) suggest a persistent reciprocal "Deep War." RF is likely attempting to synchronize UAV arrivals with the morning "cold peak" to maximize grid stress.
Logistical Vulnerability: Continued unrest in Iran (200 arrests of "rioters," 1633Z) remains a strategic variable. If internal security forces are prioritized, it may cause a secondary delay in Shahed-series airframe deliveries to RF launch sites.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Strategic Coordination: President Zelenskyy's meeting with GUR Chief Budanov (1646Z) focused on accelerating sanctions pressure. This suggests a shift toward targeting the Russian military-industrial complex's "choke points" (electronics and dual-use goods) as a primary operational line of effort.
Asymmetric Operations: UAF continues to utilize drone-based "flag-planting" in contested zones like Kupiansk. While RF reports these as failures, they force the enemy to maintain high-alert surveillance on non-tactical targets, consuming battery life and operator focus.
Information environment / disinformation
European Defense Autonomy: Spanish Foreign Ministry calls for a European Army (1659Z) are being amplified. In the RF information space, this is likely to be framed as a "split" in NATO or as "European militarism."
Domestic IO: Ukrainian sources are highlighting the presence of Russian Olympic gear at Bukovel ski resorts (1657Z). This is a morale-focused campaign aimed at identifying and shaming "internal" normalization of the enemy's culture during wartime.
RF Propaganda: Pro-Russian channels are using the Kupiansk "flag" incident to mock UAF "media victories" (Peremoga) while ignoring their own lack of territorial progress in the urban center.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: UAV strikes on Chernihiv/Sumy infrastructure within 2-4 hours, timed to disrupt the early morning grid stabilization efforts.
MDCOA: RF may use the "IAEA truce" talks at ZNPP as cover to rotate elite Spetsnaz units into the plant area under the guise of "security personnel" for repair crews.
Infrastructure: Nationwide power limits (Jan 11) will likely degrade UAF rear-area logistics and repair shops. Expect a slowdown in heavy equipment maintenance cycles.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Lyman Manpower: Determine the unit designation of the new personnel receiving RPG-7 training (1637Z) to assess if this is a fresh brigade or fragmented replacements for the 20th CAA.
ZNPP Backup Line: Identify the specific coordinates of the damaged line IAEA is seeking to repair (1638Z) to assess the feasibility of a localized ceasefire.
Lipetsk Targets: Monitor UAF drone activity in the Lipetsk region (1650Z) to confirm if the target is the Novolipetsk Steel (NLMK) plant or airfields.
//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//
Grid Hardening (Chernihiv/Sumy): Deploy additional mobile fire groups (MFG) along the northern UAV transit corridor (1641Z). Focus assets on protecting 330kV and 750kV substations before the Jan 11 restrictions take effect.
Sanctions Target Intelligence: GUR should prioritize identifying the specific Western components found in the recently captured RPG-7 specialized munitions (TBG-7V/OG-7V) mentioned in the Lyman sector to feed into the "synchronized sanctions" policy (1646Z).
Counter-Infiltration (ZNPP): If a "local truce" is established for ZNPP repairs, SIGINT and drone surveillance must be increased to ensure RF does not use the window to mine additional infrastructure or rotate personnel.
