STRATEGIC COMMAND COORDINATION (1138Z, RBK-UA, HIGH): HUR Head Kyrylo Budanov convened a high-level emergency meeting with the General Staff, Ground Forces, Military Law Enforcement (VSP), and law enforcement heads. This likely addresses the southern breach and/or the infrastructure crisis.
KINETIC IMPACT: KRYVYI RIH (1135Z, Colonelcassad, HIGH): Visual evidence confirms significant damage to energy infrastructure in Kryvyi Rih following recent strikes; emergency repairs are likely ongoing.
RF COMMAND & CONTROL DISRUPTION (1133Z/1147Z, TASS/Starshe Eddy, HIGH): Major Telegram service disruptions reported across the Russian Federation. While potentially technical, the timing suggests possible state-mandated censorship or a localized "kill-switch" during sensitive operations.
ZAPORIZHZHIA BREACH CONFIRMATION (1135Z, MoD Russia, HIGH): The Russian MoD has officially claimed the "liberation" of Zelene, corroborating the tactical breach reported in the 09 JAN daily summary.
RF FORCE GENERATION (1128Z, RBK-UA, HIGH): Intelligence from a captured RF soldier (110th Brigade) confirms the establishment of a new, large-scale military training ground near Mariupol.
"ORESHNIK" TARGET RE-EVALUATION (1131Z, Tsaplienko, LOW): OSINT analysis suggests the primary target of the previous "Oreshnik" strike was the Lviv Aircraft Repair Plant, rather than gas storage facilities. (UNCONFIRMED).
RF ECONOMIC VULNERABILITY (1140Z, STERNENKO, MEDIUM): RF General Andrey Gurulyov publicly admitted to a "crazy budget deficit," indicating severe fiscal strain on the Russian war economy.
ALLEGED DEFENSE CORRUPTION (1150Z, Operation Z, LOW): Pro-Russian sources are amplifying an unconfirmed report alleging the theft of 3bn UAH in Ukrainian mine procurement. (UNCONFIRMED; likely Information Operation).
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson)
Zelene Breach: RF "Vostok" Group has consolidated control over Zelene (1135Z). This confirms the wedge toward the H-15 highway is active.
Air Activity: UAV alerts were active for Zaporizhzhia city (1141Z) with drones approaching from the north, suggesting RF is attempting to interdict UAF reinforcements moving toward the breach from the rear. Alert cleared at 1151Z.
Eastern Sector (Donbas/Mariupol)
Mariupol Rear: Establishment of the new training ground (1128Z) indicates Mariupol is being further integrated as a primary staging and training hub for the Southern/Eastern groupings, likely utilizing its port and rail links.
Kharkiv: UAV activity reported on the southern edge of the region moving West (1143Z), likely conducting reconnaissance for future long-range fire missions or tracking UAF troop rotations.
Western Sector (Lviv/Logistics)
Lviv: The shift in assessment toward the Aircraft Repair Plant (1131Z) suggests RF intent to degrade Ukraine's ability to maintain and upgrade its air fleet (including potential F-16 integration sites) over simple energy/gas sabotage.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Course of Action: RF is using the Zelene breach to fix UAF forces while using UAVs to monitor and strike the logistical approaches to Zaporizhzhia.
C2 Vulnerability: The Telegram outage (1133Z) may disrupt "volunteer" logistics and mil-blogger reporting, which RF frontline units often rely on for unofficial C2.
Sustainment: The admission of a "crazy budget deficit" (1140Z) by a Duma deputy suggests that despite high production (e.g., salmon/fishery propaganda at 1155Z), the RF military-industrial complex is facing inflationary and liquidity crises.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Command Response: The Budanov-led multi-agency meeting (1138Z) indicates a pivot toward a synchronized response involving both military (GenStaff) and internal security (VSP/Law Enforcement). This may signal a pending counter-corruption sweep or a major tactical shift to seal the Zelene breach.
Information Operations: UAF is highlighting female service members (e.g., "Shiza" from 5th Assault Brigade, 1135Z) to bolster domestic morale and recruitment.
Information environment / disinformation
Corruption Narrative: The 3bn UAH mine procurement claim (1150Z) is a classic RF psychological operation designed to erode public trust in the MoD and international trust in military aid.
Distraction Narratives: WarGonzo’s claim regarding EU troops in Greenland (1134Z) is assessed as low-credibility "noise" intended to project an image of Western/NATO disarray.
Platform Instability: Pro-RF channels (Starshe Eddy) are preemptively warning followers to seek alternative platforms due to Telegram instability, indicating fears of a prolonged communications blackout in Russia.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: RF will continue to probe westward from Zelene toward Bratskoye. UAF will likely deploy VSP/National Guard elements to secure the H-15 GLOC as signaled by the Budanov meeting.
MDCOA: A large-scale missile strike targeting the Lviv Aircraft Repair Plant or Kryvyi Rih's remaining energy nodes, timed with the Telegram blackout to mask initial damage assessments.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Mariupol Training Ground: Detailed SIGINT/IMINT required to determine the capacity and unit types (e.g., mobilized vs. professional) being trained near Mariupol.
Telegram Outage Source: Determine if the disruption is a result of a cyberattack (internal/external) or a deliberate FSB-led censorship exercise.
Zelene Perimeter: Confirm if UAF has established a secondary defensive line between Zelene and Bratskoye to prevent fire control over the H-15.
SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB)
The operational tempo is shifting toward logistical and command consolidation. Russia is validating tactical gains in the South (Zelene) while grappling with internal C2 (Telegram) and fiscal (budget) instability. Ukraine’s response is characterized by high-level coordination (Budanov meeting) and a focus on stabilizing the energy grid in Kryvyi Rih.
//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//
Logistics Security: Increase VSP patrols and electronic warfare (EW) masking along the H-15 highway to counter RF UAV reconnaissance from the north (1141Z).
IO Counter-Strike: Pre-emptively release audit data regarding mine procurement to neutralize the 3bn UAH corruption narrative (1150Z).
Targeted Interdiction: Utilize long-range fires or partisans to disrupt the new Mariupol training ground (1128Z) before units reach combat readiness.
