KYIV GRID STABILIZATION (1108Z, RBK-UA, HIGH): Emergency power shutoffs have been canceled for the Kyiv Region and the Right Bank of Kyiv (excluding Holosiivskyi and Pecherskyi districts). Transition to planned hourly schedules is expected by the end of today (1122Z, Operatyvnyy ZSU, MEDIUM).
MOBILIZATION POLICY SHIFT (1105Z/1124Z, Tsaplienko/24 Kanal, MEDIUM): Ukrainian authorities are reportedly transitioning mobilization to a "digital form" for 2026. TCC personnel will no longer conduct vehicle stops or checkpoint duties; enforcement will shift to National Police, SBU, and National Guard, likely utilizing automated systems like license plate recognition.
RF FORCE GENERATION (1115Z, Dnevnik Desantnika, MEDIUM): The Russian MoD plans to restore three military universities (VUZs) in 2026 as part of a long-term expansion through 2034. This indicates preparation for a sustained, multi-year conflict and long-term officer cadre replenishment.
IRANIAN UNREST ESCALATION (1126Z, TASS, HIGH): Iranian officials have officially blamed "outside interference" for the escalating riots. This rhetoric confirms the severity of the internal threat to the RF’s primary UAV supplier.
ZAPORIZHZHIA KINETIC ACTIVITY (1120Z/1128Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA/Tsaplienko, HIGH): RF strikes hit the Zaporizhzhia district, resulting in civilian casualties. Conversely, the UAF 210th Assault Regiment confirmed the destruction of an RF Self-Propelled Gun (SPG) in the sector via drone strike.
UK SUPPORT DISINFORMATION (1114Z, Rybar, MEDIUM): RF information channels are pushing a narrative that UK support for Ukraine is a corrupt scheme driven by BAE Systems' financial interests.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Kyiv/Kharkiv)
Kyiv Utilities: The systemic risk to the capital’s grid is decoupling. While the "total collapse" signaled earlier has been avoided, the Pecherskyi and Holosiivskyi districts remain under emergency load shedding, indicating localized damage to substations serving these high-density areas.
Mobilization Transition: The removal of TCC from checkpoints (1124Z) is a strategic move to reduce social friction in urban centers and streamline reserve management through the "Diia" or similar digital ecosystems.
Eastern Sector (Donbas)
Status Quo: Kinetic activity continues at baseline levels. No reported movement following the earlier stabilization of the Kharkiv-Donbas boundary.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson)
Zaporizhzhia: The sector remains the primary kinetic focus. The 210th Assault Regiment’s strike on the SPG (1128Z) demonstrates effective UAF ISR-strike loops. However, RF strikes on civilian areas (Novoukrainka/Zaporizhzhia District) suggest a continued attempt to terrorize the logistical rear of the H-15 GLOC.
Zelene/Bratskoye: No new physical confirmation of ground movement since the reported loss of Zelene (Daily Report). The frontline remains contested.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action: RF is maintaining a high-intensity standoff. While ground maneuvers are limited by weather, the use of long-range fires in Zaporizhzhia persists.
Long-term Posture: The restoration of military universities (1115Z) confirms that RF leadership does not anticipate a resolution in the 2025-2026 timeframe and is investing in structural force expansion.
Vulnerability: The Iranian internal crisis (1126Z) is the most significant strategic threat to RF operations. If the Iranian regime prioritizes internal security, export-oriented UAV production (Shahed/Geran) may be diverted or disrupted.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Tactical Innovation: "Madyar" (1104Z) confirms continued high-efficiency night/thermal operations, focusing on de-energizing or interdicting RF forward positions ("turning off the lights for the worms").
Institutional Reform: The shift to digital mobilization (1105Z) suggests a maturation of Ukraine’s "state-in-a-smartphone" capabilities being applied to wartime human resources, potentially freeing up TCC personnel for combat roles.
Information environment / disinformation
Russian IO: Medvedev’s reiteration that NATO forces are "legitimate targets" (1102Z) serves to maintain the psychological pressure established by the "Oreshnik" narrative.
Counter-Lobbying Narrative: The Rybar attack on BAE Systems (1114Z) aims to erode Western public support by framing military aid as corporate profiteering rather than security assistance.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Kyiv will reach 80-90% power restoration by 2200Z. RF will continue tactical shelling in Zaporizhzhia to prevent UAF from consolidating reserves near the Zelene breach.
MDCOA: RF may attempt a targeted "surgical" strike on a government digital infrastructure node to disrupt the newly announced digital mobilization transition.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Digital Mobilization Infrastructure: Identify the specific technical platforms and databases being used for the 2026 digital mobilization rollout (Collection: SIGINT/OSINT).
Iranian Supply Disruption: Monitor Caspian Sea transit routes for any slowdown in shipments from Bandar Anzali to Astrakhan, which would indicate internal Iranian diversion of resources.
Zaporizhzhia Frontline: Visual confirmation (Bayer/SAR) required to determine if RF has established permanent fortifications in Zelene.
SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB)
The battlefield is currently characterized by utility recovery and long-term institutional adjustment. Ukraine is successfully mitigating the infrastructure shock while simultaneously reforming its mobilization apparatus to sustain a protracted war. Russia is countering with strategic threats (Medvedev) and targeted tactical strikes in the South, while acknowledging its own need for long-term force generation (VUZ restoration).
//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//
Cyber Defense: Prioritize protection of the Ministry of Digital Transformation and National Police databases as they take on mobilization enforcement roles (1105Z).
Precision Strike: Leverage "Madyar" and 210th Assault elements to target RF logistics hubs in the Zaporizhzhia rear while they are prioritized for civilian-area strikes (1120Z).
Strategic IO: Counter the "BAE Systems" narrative (1114Z) by emphasizing the employment and industrial benefits of the UK-Ukraine Defense Partnership within the UK domestic market.
