CONTRADICTORY INFRASTRUCTURE STATUS – KYIV (1032Z-1058Z, MinEnergy/Klitschko, HIGH): Conflicting reports regarding the capital's grid. While the Ministry of Energy and Ukrenergo claim electricity stabilization (1032Z, 1051Z), Mayor Klitschko confirms water, heat, and electric transport remain suspended (1048Z). Full heat restoration is projected for later today (1058Z).
REGIONAL GRID RECOVERY – POLTAVA/ZHYTOMYR (1030Z, RBK-UA, HIGH): Emergency blackouts have been canceled in Poltava and Zhytomyr, indicating localized stabilization of the central-eastern grid nodes.
STRATEGIC DETERRENCE SIGNALING – RF (1046Z, TASS/Medvedev, HIGH): Dmitry Medvedev issued a direct warning against Western/NATO troop deployment, accompanied by footage of an "Oreshnik" missile strike. This represents a coordinated escalation in the information domain.
ADVANCED DRONE DEPLOYMENT – UAF (1037Z, Sternenko, MEDIUM): UAF units are now confirmed to be employing fiber-optic-controlled drones, which are immune to standard Electronic Warfare (EW) jamming.
TACTICAL STRIKE – ZAPORIZHZHIA (1051Z, Tsaplienko, MEDIUM): The UAF 210th Assault Regiment successfully destroyed a Russian Self-Propelled Artillery (SPG) unit in an exposed position.
REAR AREA INSTABILITY – IRAN (1050Z, Tsaplienko/Time, MEDIUM): Reports of mass unrest in Tehran with >200 casualties. This is a critical development regarding the stability of the RF’s primary UAV supplier.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Kyiv/Kharkiv)
Kyiv Utility Crisis: Friction exists between national-level energy reports and municipal reality. The "lack of voltage" reported at 1024Z (previous sitrep) has been partially mitigated, but the cascading failure of water/heat systems (due to pump station de-energization) is not yet resolved.
Russian Rear (Moscow): Severe weather (snow) continues to impede Russian domestic logistics; MChS has issued emergency recovery protocols for transit (1037Z).
Eastern Sector (Donbas)
Status Quo: No significant new territorial changes reported in the last 60 minutes. RF remains in a "re-evaluation" phase following the Rybar correction at Kostiantynivka (1027Z).
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson)
Zaporizhzhia: Kinetic activity remains high. The destruction of the RF SPG (1051Z) indicates UAF retains local ISR superiority despite the earlier loss of Zelene (Daily Report).
Kherson (Dnipro River): UAF drone operators successfully interdicted a Russian river-crossing attempt near the Right Bank (1031Z). This confirms persistent RF attempts to infiltrate small groups across the Dnipro.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action: RF is currently prioritizing Information Operations (IO) and strategic intimidation (Medvedev/Oreshnik messaging) over large-scale kinetic maneuvers. This may be a pause to allow for reconnaissance or a response to the Moscow snow-paralysis.
Logistics: The unrest in Iran (1050Z) introduces a high-risk variable for RF Shahed-series UAV replenishment. Any disruption in Tehran could lead to a "drone gap" in 2-4 weeks.
Tactical adaptations: Continued focus on riverine infiltration in Kherson and exposed artillery positioning in Zaporizhzhia suggest a lack of consolidated defensive depth in specific southern sub-sectors.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Technological Edge: The deployment of fiber-optic drones (1037Z) provides a tactical workaround to heavy RF EW environments. This allows for precision strikes against high-value targets (HVTs) that were previously "screened" by jamming.
Infrastructure Defense: Ukrenergo and local administrations are showing high resilience, successfully stabilizing Poltava/Zhytomyr and moving toward heat restoration in Kyiv despite the 1005Z total collapse.
Information environment / disinformation
RF Escalation Narrative: The Kremlin is intensifying "red line" rhetoric regarding NATO involvement (1046Z, 1058Z) to capitalize on Western political cycles (Trump/US-EU relations).
Internal RF Control: Authorities in St. Petersburg continue to suppress local dissent (VNIIB protest arrests, 1047Z), indicating high sensitivity to internal social friction.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Kyiv will see a gradual restoration of water and heat, though the electric transport network will remain offline to conserve the fragile grid. RF will continue "Oreshnik" propaganda but refrain from a secondary massive missile wave for at least 12 hours.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): Synchronized cyber-attacks on the newly "stabilized" Ukrenergo nodes to trigger a second, more permanent collapse while temperatures remain sub-zero.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Zelene/Bratskoye Ground Truth: Urgent need for BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) or visual confirmation of the frontline in the H-15 highway vicinity following the loss of Zelene.
Iranian Supply Chain: Assess the impact of Tehran unrest on the manufacturing and transit of "Geran/Shahed" UAVs.
Oreshnik Footage: Technical analysis of the Medvedev-shared video to determine if it is recycled archive footage or a new, unrecorded strike.
SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB)
The operational tempo has shifted toward strategic signaling and utility resilience. The RF is attempting to use the psychological weight of the Kyiv utility collapse and "Oreshnik" threats to force political concessions. Tactically, UAF is successfully leveraging advanced technology (fiber-optic drones) to maintain a kinetic presence despite the infrastructure strain.
//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//
EW/Drone Integration: Commanders should accelerate the distribution of fiber-optic drone kits to sectors with high EW density (Zaporizhzhia/Donbas) to exploit the current RF "blind spots" (1037Z).
Counter-Infiltration (Kherson): Intensify thermal drone patrols along the Dnipro Right Bank; the 1031Z strike confirms RF is testing riverine crossing points despite freezing conditions.
Public Narrative: Use the restoration of Poltava/Zhytomyr grids (1030Z) and the discrepancy in Kyiv's status to counter RF "total collapse" propaganda.
