TOTAL UTILITY COLLAPSE – KYIV (1005Z-1028Z, Alex Parker/TASS/KMDA, HIGH): The Kyiv City State Administration (KMDA) and DTEK confirm a total cessation of water and heat supply, alongside the complete shutdown of all electric transport (trams/trolleybus) on both the Left and Right banks. This negates previous reports of stabilization.
REGIONAL GRID DEGRADATION – POLTAVA (1000Z, RBK-UA, HIGH): "Poltavaoblenergo" has implemented emergency blackouts, indicating the systemic instability is spreading beyond the capital and central regions.
LOGISTICAL DISRUPTION – NATIONAL RAIL (1024Z, RBK-UA, HIGH): Ukrzaliznytsia (UZ) reports significant delays in regional and suburban rail traffic due to "lack of voltage in the contact network." This directly impacts the movement of personnel and supplies.
STRIKE ON LOGISTICAL HUB – PANYUTYNE (1023Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): RF UAVs targeted rail and energy infrastructure in Panyutyne (Lozova Raion, Kharkiv). This location is a critical rail junction supporting the Kharkiv/Donbas axes.
TACTICAL READJUSTMENT – KOSTIANTYNIVKA (1027Z, Rybar, MEDIUM): Pro-Russian sources have issued a "work on mistakes" update for the Kostiantynivka sector, suggesting previous claims of RF territorial gains were overstated or have been reversed by UAF counter-attacks.
INDUSTRIAL STRIKE – ODESA (1019Z, RBK-UA, HIGH): Confirmed morning strike on industrial infrastructure in the Odesa district, likely targeting facilities supporting maritime or drone production.
ROBOTIC DEPLOYMENT – SEVER GROUP (1011Z, Basurin, MEDIUM): RF is reportedly integrating Ground Robotic Complexes (NRTK) into the "North" (Sever) Grouping to conduct high-risk front-line tasks.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Kyiv/Kharkiv)
Kyiv Infrastructure: The capital has entered a "city-kill" scenario. The simultaneous loss of water, heat, and transit during sub-zero temperatures represents a critical humanitarian and operational threat.
Kharkiv/Lozova Axis: The strike on Panyutyne (1023Z) suggests a deliberate RF effort to paralyze the rail GLOCs (Ground Lines of Communication) connecting Kharkiv to the central reserves.
Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Pokrovsk)
Kostiantynivka: The "Rybar" correction (1027Z) indicates a localized UAF success in stabilizing the line or successfully contesting RF advances that were previously reported as consolidated.
Tactical Drones: RF "Kaira" and "Voin DV" units continue high-frequency FPV operations (1000Z). Conversely, UAF Unmanned Systems Forces (SBS/Madyar) are conducting "infrastructure strikes" against RF tactical assets (1012Z).
Southern Sector (Odesa/Zaporizhzhia)
Odesa: Persistent targeting of industrial infrastructure (1019Z). This follows the 30m altitude UAV tactics reported in the previous 24h.
Kryvyi Rih: Localized success in restoring high-speed tram service (1003Z), though the city remains vulnerable to wider grid instability.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Shift: RF is increasingly relying on NRTK (Robotic Complexes) in the North to mitigate personnel losses. In the air, the focus remains on the "energy-logistics nexus," specifically targeting the rail contact network to freeze UAF maneuverability.
Logistics: RF MoD claims successful strikes on the "Energy system of the Ukrainian VPK (Military-Industrial Complex)" (1006Z).
Internal Vulnerabilities: Evidence of high psychological strain in RF forces; reports indicate a severe shortage of psychologists for "SVO" veteran rehabilitation (1001Z).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Strategic Counter-Strikes: The Unmanned Systems Forces (SBS) are actively targeting RF critical infrastructure, likely aiming at localized power or command nodes to disrupt RF offensive tempo (1012Z).
Resource Mobilization: Successful private fundraising efforts (e.g., "Hayabusa" group) continue to provide immediate financial liquidity for tactical needs (1019Z).
Resilience Operations: UZ and energy teams are attempting to manage a collapsing grid, though the "lack of voltage" is now a nationwide operational constraint.
Information environment / disinformation
RF Propaganda: Significant effort to distract from frontline issues by amplifying Western internal strife (Elon Musk’s "prison island" comments on the UK, US police incidents) (1010Z, 1023Z).
Narrative Contests: RF channels are mocking the Kyiv utility collapse to induce panic and demoralize the civilian population (1005Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued expansion of emergency power shutdowns to western oblasts as the national grid fails to compensate for the loss of Kyiv/Poltava nodes. Rail delays will exceed 12+ hours.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): RF launches a massive missile/UAV wave synchronized with the current grid collapse to permanently disable the high-voltage "backbone," forcing a mass urban evacuation of Kyiv during the winter peak.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Panyutyne Damage Assessment: Determine the operational status of the Lozova-Kharkiv rail link following the 1023Z strike.
Kostiantynivka Front Line: Clarify the specific "mistakes" mentioned by Rybar (1027Z) to identify where UAF has regained tactical high ground.
NRTK Specs: Identify the specific models of robotic complexes (NRTK) being deployed by the RF "North" Group.
SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB)
The battlefield is currently transitioning from a kinetic-dominant environment to an infrastructure-dominant one. The RF is achieving operational-level effects (paralyzing rail and urban centers) through a sustained "voltage war." The UAF is responding with asymmetric drone strikes on RF infrastructure, but the disparity in grid vulnerability favors the RF in the short term.
//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//
Logistics Transition: Commanders must immediately transition to diesel-locomotive-led echelons for critical ammo/personnel movements, as the electric contact network (UZ) is no longer reliable (1024Z).
Counter-Robot Tactics: Front-line units in the North (Sever Group AOR) must be briefed on NRTK engagement—prioritizing the destruction of command-link repeaters over the robotic chassis themselves.
Strategic Communication: Highlighting the "Rybar" correction (1027Z) to domestic audiences can help counter the "unstoppable RF advance" narrative during the electricity crisis.
