EMERGENCY POWER SHUTDOWNS – KYIV/OBLAST (0953Z-0958Z, DTEK/KMC/RBK-UA, HIGH): Rapid reversal of previous restoration. Ukrenergo has ordered immediate emergency and "emergency-active" shutdowns across the capital and Kyiv region. This suggests a systemic grid failure or new damage following the overnight strikes, contradicting earlier progress reports.
TACTICAL CONTEST – ZELENE/HULIAIPOLE (0929Z, GSZSU, HIGH): Contrary to earlier assessments of a total breach, the General Staff reports ongoing "clashes" near Zelene. This indicates the settlement is currently a contested "gray zone" rather than consolidated Russian control.
PRECISION ARTILLERY STRIKE – KOSTIANTYNIVKA (0953Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): RF forces utilized a "Krasnopol" guided artillery shell to successfully target a UAF UAV control point. This underscores the threat to drone operators from RF precision-guided munitions (PGM).
LOGISTICAL PARALYSIS – NATIONAL (0932Z, Ukrzaliznytsia, HIGH): Severe winter weather has caused widespread delays across the Ukrainian rail network. Combined with reported road closures (0956Z), multi-domain logistics are significantly degraded.
AIR DEFENSE CLEARANCE – SOUTH (0932Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): The previously reported cruise missile threat over Kherson/Mykolaiv has been cleared ("Відбій").
UK DEFENSE AID – STRATEGIC (0955Z, Tsaplienko, MEDIUM): Reports indicate the UK is allocating $270 million specifically for the training of troops for deployment in Ukraine. (Note: Context of "deployment" requires further clarification).
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Sector (Kherson/Zaporizhzhia)
Huliaipole/Orikhiv Axis: Intense fighting reported near Stepove, Solodke, Huliaipole, Varvarivka, and Zelene (0929Z). The UAF is actively defending the approaches to the H-15 highway.
Kherson: Direct clashes confirmed near the Antonivskiy Bridge (0929Z), indicating persistent RF attempts to pressure the left bank or disrupt UAF reconnaissance-in-force.
Maritime/Air: Air threat in the south has temporarily subsided (0932Z), but the energy infrastructure at Kryvyi Rih remains in a state of "liquidation" following the Shahed strikes (0945Z).
Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Pokrovsk)
Pokrovsk Sector: High-intensity defensive operations continue. Clashes reported at Piddubne, Sosnivka, Verbove, Vyshneve, Rybne, Yehorivka, and Krasnohirske (0928Z).
Kostiantynivka: RF utilization of "Krasnopol" indicates a localized concentration of high-end artillery assets to suppress UA drone dominance (0953Z).
Tactical Success: "Madyar's Birds" (UA FPV unit) successfully ambushed RF infantry in the Pokrovsk direction, demonstrating continued effectiveness of decentralized drone teams (0946Z).
Northern Sector (Kyiv/Kharkiv/Border)
Kyiv: Grid instability has peaked. Emergency blackouts suggest that the heating/power restoration reported earlier was either temporary or collapsed under load/weather stress.
Sever Group AOR: RF MoD confirms Pantsir-S systems are providing 24/7 air defense (0932Z), likely to counter the UA drone strikes that have been targeting Russian border logistics.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action (COA): The RF is transitioning from broad "Geran" (Shahed) strikes to localized precision strikes (Krasnopol) to degrade UAF tactical advantages (UAVs).
Logistics: Russian propaganda is highlighting urban winter struggles in Moscow (dog sleds) to mask the impact of the snowstorm on their own logistics, which remain hampered (0938Z).
Capabilities: Continued reliance on Pantsir-S in the north suggests a high respect for UA deep-strike drone capabilities.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Technological Adaptation: The 40th Artillery Brigade is integrating Ground Robotic Complexes (UGVs) and robotic demining systems (0940Z). This is a critical pivot to reduce personnel risk in high-intensity sectors.
Resource Constraints: Prominent activists (Sternenko) and military channels report a "deficit" in FPV drones, requiring urgent crowdfunding (0930Z, 0941Z).
Infrastructure: UAF and civilian teams (DTEK) are struggling to balance grid stability against extreme cold and kinetic damage.
Information environment / disinformation
RF Propaganda: TASS is amplifying peripheral diplomatic tensions (Greenland vs. USA) to distract from the frontline (0942Z).
Narrative Contests: RF channels continue to mock the situation at the Kryvorizka TPP (0947Z), using the visual of smoke to demoralize the local population.
Service Promotion: ASTRA is aggressively promoting VPNs in Russia, highlighting increasing internal internet censorship (0931Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued emergency blackouts in Kyiv as the grid fails to handle the combination of strike damage and sub-zero temperatures.
MDCOA: RF exploitation of logistical delays (train/road) to launch a concentrated ground assault in the Pokrovsk sector while UA reinforcements are stuck in transit.
Tactical: Increased use of Krasnopol in the Kostiantynivka/Pokrovsk sectors to target UA tactical command nodes.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Kyiv Grid Status: Determine if the emergency shutdowns (0953Z) are due to a new kinetic impact or a technical failure of the repaired transformers.
UK Training Scope: Clarify the specific nature of the "troops for deployment" mentioned in the $270M aid package (0955Z).
Zelene Ground Truth: Confirm physical control of Zelene. Is the GSZSU "clashes" report indicating a UAF counter-attack?
SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB)
The operational environment is currently dominated by Environmental Factors. Extreme winter weather is the primary "third force" degrading both RF and UA maneuverability and logistics (rail/road). However, the RF is successfully exploiting this by pressure-testing the Ukrainian energy grid to its breaking point.
//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//
UAV Operator Security: FPV teams in the Kostiantynivka sector must immediately adopt "move-after-launch" protocols to counter Krasnopol/PGM strikes.
Logistical Contingency: Command should prioritize fuel-based heating and generators for front-line positions, as rail delays and grid instability will likely persist for 48-72 hours.
Strategic Comms: Verify and publicize the nature of the UK's $270M aid to bolster domestic morale during the energy crisis.
