CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE STRIKE – KRYVYI RIH (0900Z, Kotenok, HIGH): Overnight "Geran" (Shahed) UAV strikes confirmed on the Kryvorizka Thermal Power Plant (TPP). Visual evidence shows smoke over transformers; this exacerbates the existing 130k consumer outage in Dnipropetrovsk.
UTILITY RESTORATION – KYIV (0902Z, DTEK/Tsaplienko, HIGH): Significant progress in the capital with 588,000 households regained power. However, ~2,000 buildings remain without heat following yesterday's strikes.
CRUISE MISSILE THREAT – SOUTH (0909Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): A cruise missile (KR) has been detected over Kherson Oblast on a vector toward Mykolaiv Oblast. Active air defense measures are likely in progress.
TACTICAL AVIATION ESCALATION – NOVE POLE (0923Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): RF forces utilized three FAB-500 UMPK (guided bombs) against a temporary deployment point (PVD) of the UA 92nd Assault Brigade in the Nove Pole area (Zaporizhzhia/Donetsk border).
ENERGY SABOTAGE – VOLNOVAKHA (0922Z, Mash na Donbasse, LOW/UNCONFIRMED): Pro-RU sources claim a UA drone strike disabled a substation in occupied Volnovakha, causing localized blackouts.
RF DEFENSIVE CLAIMS – NATIONAL (0911Z, TASS, MEDIUM): RF MoD claims to have intercepted one "Neptune" long-range missile and 70 UA UAVs over the last 24 hours.
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Sector (Kherson/Mykolaiv/Zaporizhzhia)
Airstrike Intensity: RF aviation is heavily saturating the Zaporizhzhia/Donetsk border region. The General Staff of the UAF confirms strikes at Rizdvyanka, Samiylivka, Nove Pole, Hryhorivske, Yurkivka, and Yulyivka (0928Z). This suggests a concerted effort to degrade tactical reserves (like the 92nd Bde) before they can reach the Zelene-Bratskoye breach identified in the previous 24h context.
Missile Ingress: The cruise missile vector (Kherson to Mykolaiv) suggests a potential follow-up strike on energy or logistics hubs in the Mykolaiv port zone.
Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Lyman/Kupyansk)
Lyman/Kupyansk Axis: High-intensity "clashes" reported yesterday near Stepova Novoselivka, Novovodyane, and Drobysheve (0928Z). The RF is maintaining pressure across a wide front to prevent UA lateral redistribution of forces.
Kramatorsk/Sloviansk: Active fighting near Stupochky and Platonivka (0928Z). The RF is likely attempting to fix UA forces in the Kramatorsk sector to prevent reinforcement of the southern Donbas flank.
Northern Sector (Kyiv/Kharkiv)
Kyiv: The situation is transitionary. While DTEK reports massive power restoration (0902Z), Russian IO channels are still pushing "hellish conditions" narratives (0911Z) to capitalize on the remaining 2,000 heat-deprived buildings.
Kharkiv: Clashes reported at Vovchansk and Zelene (Kharkiv region) (0928Z), indicating the RF is maintaining the border buffer zone pressure despite the extreme cold.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Adaptation: The use of triple FAB-500 UMPK strikes on a single PVD (Nove Pole) indicates an increased RF confidence in their ISR-to-strike loop. They are targeting specific brigade-level assets in the rear to disrupt counter-offensive movements toward the southern breach.
Strategic Targeting: The RF MoD (0908Z) explicitly stated their objective is energy infrastructure "supporting the UA military-industrial complex." This confirms that Kryvorizka TPP and similar sites are being prioritized to halt domestic repair and production capacities.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Infrastructure Resilience: Rapid restoration in Kyiv demonstrates high proficiency in emergency utility repair.
Defensive Operations: UAF is currently in a "hold and attrit" phase across the Lyman and Kupyansk directions, utilizing FPV drones (Azov footage, 0907Z) to disrupt RF infantry advances.
Information environment / disinformation
Kyiv Crisis Framing: Pro-RU source "Operatsiya Z" (0911Z) is using outdated or localized utility data to amplify the "humanitarian disaster" narrative, contradicting the official DTEK restoration figures.
Divergent Global Narratives: Reports of North Korean drone interceptions and Iranian protests (0914Z, 0920Z) are appearing in regional feeds, possibly to distract or provide "comparative stability" narratives for Russian audiences.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued cruise missile and UAV harassment of Mykolaiv and Odesa to exploit the current weather-induced SHORAD degradation.
MDCOA: A follow-up missile strike on the Kryvyi Rih energy hub to ensure the "cascading failure" of the Dnipropetrovsk grid persists through the freezing night.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
92nd BDE Status: Assess combat effectiveness of the 92nd Assault Brigade following the Nove Pole FAB-500 strike.
Volnovakha Substation: Confirm if the outage in Volnovakha was a UA kinetic strike or internal RF grid failure (Collection requirement: HUMINT/Satellite imagery).
Cruise Missile Impact: Monitor for impact or interception reports in the Mykolaiv/Odesa corridor following the 0909Z ingress.
SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB)
The battlefield is characterized by an RF shift toward "tactical-depth" interdiction. By using guided aerial bombs (UMPK) against deployment points (Nove Pole) and TPPs (Kryvyi Rih), the RF is attempting to freeze UA maneuver elements both physically (via energy loss) and tactically (via air superiority).
//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//
Tactical Dispersion: Units in the Zaporizhzhia/Donetsk border region (specifically 2nd and 3rd echelons) must increase dispersion and camouflage. The RF is successfully identifying and hitting PVDs with heavy UMPK payloads.
Air Defense Alert: Mykolaiv-based assets must prepare for cruise missile arrival NLT 1000Z.
IO Counter-Strike: UA StratCom should release visual evidence of the Kyiv heat/power restoration to counter the "Hellish Kyiv" narrative before it gains traction in Western media.
