ENERGY CRISIS EXPANSION – DNIPROPETROVSK (0851Z, ASTRA, HIGH): Ukrainian Ministry of Energy confirms the outage has expanded to 130,000 consumers (up from 100,000) following the strikes on Kryvorizka TPP.
NEW UAV VECTORS – ODESA/CHORNOMORSK (0830Z-0833Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): Multiple UAVs detected inbound from the Black Sea targeting Chornomorsk and Ovidiopol.
AERIAL BOMBARDMENT – DONETSK SECTOR (0847Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): RF tactical aviation has launched a new wave of Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) against targets in the Donetsk region.
RF AVIATION RESTRICITIONS – MOSCOW (0856Z-0857Z, TASS/Novosti Moskvy, MEDIUM): Restrictions on flight arrivals at Sheremetyevo Airport were lifted at 0857Z. Temporary closures typically indicate local UAV threats or electronic warfare (EW) activity in the Moscow FIR.
STRATEGIC NARRATIVE – WESTERN DEPLOYMENTS (0839Z-0843Z, Tsaplienko/Operatsiya Z, MEDIUM): Reports circulating of Le Monde/Macron suggesting 6,000 French troops for post-peace agreement deployment, alongside unconfirmed pro-RU claims of £200m UK funding for troop readiness in Ukraine. (UNCONFIRMED/PROBABLE INFO OP).
INFANTRY ADVANCE – UNKNOWN SECTOR (0841Z, MoD Russia, MEDIUM): RF MoD released footage claiming tactical aviation support for a successful infantry advance; sector not specified but likely correlates with the Donetsk KAB wave.
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Sector (Odesa/Zaporizhzhia)
Odesa/Chornomorsk: The threat has widened from Odesa city to the adjacent port of Chornomorsk and the Ovidiopol area. The ingress from the Black Sea (0830Z) suggests the RF is maintaining the 30m ultra-low altitude profile to bypass coastal radar.
Zaporizhzhia: While the previous sitrep focused on Zaporizhzhia KAB strikes, the latest energy data (0851Z) shows the systematic degradation of the regional power grid is more severe than initially reported, likely impacting rail-based reinforcement of the Bratskoye-Gaychur line.
Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Kharkiv)
Donetsk Axis: New KAB strikes (0847Z) indicate a localized intensification of the offensive. Combined with RF MoD reports of "infantry advances" (0841Z), the RF is likely attempting to exploit the current weather window before the anomalous cold front arrives.
Kharkiv/Rear: No new kinetic updates for Lozova/Blyznyuky since 0816Z, but the region remains under a high-alert profile for UAV reconnaissance.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Infrastructure Targeting: The RF is successfully achieving "cascading failure" in the Dnipropetrovsk grid. Expanding the outage to 130k households increases the logistical friction for UAF rear-area operations.
Tactical Shift: The expansion of UAV targets to Chornomorsk suggests a "saturation" strategy intended to fix UA SHORAD assets in Odesa, preventing them from being redeployed to protect the TPPs or the Donetsk front.
Aviation Activity: High-tempo KAB usage across both Zaporizhzhia (0819Z) and Donetsk (0847Z) demonstrates that RF aviation is currently the primary "force multiplier" for their infantry pushes.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: UA Air Force is actively vectoring assets to intercept UAVs in the Chornomorsk-Ovidiopol corridor.
Sustainment/Logistics: Fundraising and recruitment efforts (Sternenko 0842Z, Operativnyi ZSU 0837Z) indicate a continued reliance on "bottom-up" logistics for FPV drones and specialized MilTech talent (Anti-Drone Product Owners).
Public Information: Regional administrations are pivoting to morale-focused campaigns ("Taxes Protect") to maintain social cohesion during the energy crisis.
Information environment / disinformation
"Western Intervention" Narrative: Coordinated messaging regarding French and British troops (0839Z, 0843Z) is likely intended to:
Provoke a Russian domestic response to justify further mobilization.
Create "red line" fatigue in Western audiences.
Analytic Note: The French report specifically mentions "after a peace agreement," but pro-RU channels are stripping this context to imply immediate intervention.
US Political Framing: Reports of Trump's "frustration" with Putin (0855Z) are marked by misattributions (Telegraph vs. other sources), suggesting a "noise" campaign to confuse expectations regarding US-UA diplomatic relations.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued UAV harassment of Odesa/Chornomorsk to mask a potential missile strike on remaining energy hubs in the Dnipro-Zaporizhzhia corridor.
MDCOA: A mechanized breakthrough in the Donetsk sector supported by sustained KAB strikes, aimed at severing secondary GLOCs before the predicted -15°C cold snap (starting Jan 11) freezes ground operations.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Sheremetyevo Closure Cause: Determine if the 0856Z airport restrictions were caused by a UA "deep strike" UAV or a local Russian EW malfunction.
Chornomorsk Damage: Monitor for any kinetic impacts at the Port of Chornomorsk following the 0830Z UAV ingress.
UK/France Ground Truth: Clarify the "£200m for troops" claim via UK MoD channels to neutralize potential Russian disinformation.
SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB)
The battlefield is currently defined by a high-intensity RF aerial campaign aimed at both the tactical front (Donetsk KABs) and the strategic rear (Dnipropetrovsk energy). The synchronization of these strikes with information operations regarding Western troop deployments suggests a Russian effort to force a "culmination point" in Ukrainian public morale and logistical capacity simultaneously.
//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//
SHORAD Redistribution: Prioritize the protection of the Chornomorsk port infrastructure, as it appears to be the new primary target for maritime-ingress UAVs.
Energy Resilience: Accelerate the deployment of mobile generators to Dnipropetrovsk to support critical rail junctions, anticipating that 130k household outages will begin to impact military logistics by 1200Z.
Strategic Communications: UA StratCom should immediately clarify the "French/UK troop" reports to prevent "intervention fatigue" or false expectations among the front-line troops.
