STRATEGIC ENERGY STRIKE – KRYVYI RIH (0813Z, Colonelcassad/DTEK, HIGH): Confirmed Russian strike on the Kryvorizka Thermal Power Plant (TPP). DTEK reports 100,000 households in the Dnipropetrovsk region are without power.
MARITIME UAV INGRESS – ODESA (0810Z-0815Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): Multiple UAVs detected entering Odesa airspace from the Black Sea; explosions reported in the city at 0815Z.
AERIAL BOMBARDMENT – ZAPORIZHZHIA (0819Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): RF tactical aviation has launched a wave of Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) against targets in the Zaporizhzhia sector.
DEEP REAR UAV PROBES – KHARKIV (0816Z, UA Air Force, MEDIUM): RF UAVs detected over Lozova and Blyznyuky, indicating reconnaissance or strike profiles targeting rail/logistics hubs deep in the Kharkiv region.
ECONOMIC HYBRID OPS – RAILWAY DEFAULT CLAIM (0825Z, Dva Mayora, LOW): Pro-Russian sources are circulating claims that Ukrzaliznytsia (Ukrainian Railways) has declared a technical default. (UNCONFIRMED/PROBABLE DISINFORMATION).
ENVIRONMENTAL FACTOR – EXTREME COLD (0809Z, Bryansk CGMS, HIGH): Anomalous cold ( -12°C to -15°C) forecasted for Bryansk and surrounding border regions starting Jan 11, likely to impact RF ground logistics and equipment serviceability.
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/South Donetsk)
Zaporizhzhia Axis: The launch of KABs (0819Z) suggests an intensification of the effort to expand the breach at Zelene and target the H-15 GLOC. This follows the previous report of RF 14th Guards Spetsnaz activity in Staroukrainka.
Dnipropetrovsk/Rear: The strike on Kryvorizka TPP (0813Z) has caused a significant regional power outage. This is a deliberate "city-kill" tactic aimed at degrading the logistical and industrial backbone of the Southern Front.
Southern Coastal Sector (Odesa)
Odesa: Active engagements are ongoing. Explosions (0815Z) follow the detection of UAVs using maritime approach vectors. This likely continues the 30m ultra-low altitude profile intended to evade radar.
Eastern Sector (Kharkiv/Lyman)
Deep Reconnaissance: The presence of UAVs over Lozova and Blyznyuky (0816Z) is significant as these are critical railway junctions. This indicates RF intent to interdict the flow of Western materiel or personnel rotations moving from Central Ukraine toward the Donbas front.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Infrastructure Attrition: The RF has shifted focus back to large-scale energy infrastructure (Kryvorizka TPP). By timing these strikes with the approaching cold front in the border regions, the RF aims to maximize humanitarian and logistical strain.
Tactical Aviation: High-frequency KAB usage in Zaporizhzhia indicates RF is attempting to use "brute force" aerial suppression to compensate for the friction of winter ground maneuvers.
Adaptation: The persistence of maritime-route UAV strikes on Odesa suggests the RF has identified a persistent gap in coastal SHORAD coverage.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Energy Management: DTEK is actively working on load-balancing in Dnipropetrovsk to mitigate the loss of the Kryvorizka TPP.
Air Defense: UA Air Force continues to track and engage multiple UAV vectors across Odesa and Kharkiv, though the volume of the morning wave is stressing local assets.
Information environment / disinformation
Economic Sabotage: The claim of Ukrzaliznytsia’s technical default (0825Z) is likely a coordinated effort to undermine investor confidence and demoralize the civilian population. It coincides with the physical strikes on energy, suggesting a multi-domain "infrastructure collapse" narrative.
Strategic Framing: Pro-RF channels (Rybar, 0825Z) are promoting a narrative of an anti-Russian "Azerbaijan-Ukraine axis" to pressure Russian diplomatic relations in the Caucasus.
Internal RF Morale: Sparse reports of dissent (Butusov, 0821Z) regarding RF foreign policy suggest some domestic friction, though it remains localized and non-systemic.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued KAB strikes in the Zaporizhzhia sector to facilitate a mechanized push toward Bratskoye. Further UAV waves against Odesa port infrastructure.
MDCOA: A massive missile/UAV "double-tap" strike on the Dnipropetrovsk energy repair sites during the height of the outage to permanently disable regional power before the cold snap.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Kryvorizka TPP Damage Assessment: Urgent need for BDA to determine if the outage is due to transmission line damage or critical generator/transformer destruction.
UAV Ingress Coordinates: Refine the entry points for the Odesa drones to confirm if they are launching from vessels or Crimean coastal sites.
Rail Status: Monitor Lozova and Blyznyuky for any kinetic impacts following the UAV detections; confirm if rail movements have been suspended.
SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB)
The operational environment is characterized by a synchronized kinetic and information assault on Ukrainian infrastructure. The RF is leveraging its aerial advantage (KABs and low-altitude UAVs) to create systemic pressure on the Dnipropetrovsk-Zaporizhzhia-Odesa triangle. The extreme cold forecasted for the Russian rear (Bryansk) suggests a limited window for RF to utilize their current logistical momentum before weather-induced friction increases.
//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//
Critical Infrastructure Protection: Increase SHORAD and mobile fire group density around major TPPs in Central Ukraine. The Kryvyi Rih strike indicates a renewed RF campaign against the grid.
Counter-Narrative: Ukrainian Ministry of Finance or Ukrzaliznytsia should issue an immediate statement regarding the "technical default" claims to neutralize the economic disinformation.
Logistics Rerouting: Prepare contingency rail routes bypassing Lozova/Blyznyuky in anticipation of targeted strikes on these junctions.
