NEW WEAPONRY – FPV "BOOMERANG" SPIKES (0746Z, TASS, MEDIUM): RF forces have reportedly integrated anti-vehicle spike deployment systems into "Boomerang" FPV drones. This tactic aims to disable logistics vehicles and "last-mile" resupply transport by mining roads behind friendly lines.
AERIAL THREAT – CHORNOMORSKE INGRESS (0737Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): A new wave of RF UAVs has been detected over the Black Sea, currently on an intercept course for Chornomorske (Odesa/Crimea periphery).
SOUTHERN SECTOR – STRIKES ON STAROUKRAINKA (0730Z, Voin DV, MEDIUM): RF 14th Guards Spetsnaz (Vostok Group) confirmed drone strikes against a UAF Temporary Deployment Point (PVD) in Staroukrainka, indicating continued pressure north of the recently lost Zelene.
EASTERN SECTOR – KRASNY LIMAN ARTILLERY (0731Z, MoD Russia, MEDIUM): 25th Combined Arms Army (Zapad Group) has intensified Giatsint-S self-propelled artillery fire against UAF electronic warfare (EW) nodes and camouflaged positions in the Krasny Liman direction.
SOUTH DONETSK – 150TH DIVISION OFFENSIVE (0759Z, NM DNR, MEDIUM): Units of the RF 150th Division are actively targeting UAF drone control posts (UAV C2) and personnel in the settlements of Pryyut and Novopavlivka.
DIPLOMATIC – MACRON TROOP DISCUSSIONS (0751Z, Operatsiya Z/Le Monde, MEDIUM): Reports circulate that French President Macron has discussed potential troop deployments to Ukraine post-conflict, potentially adjusting the strategic timeline for international intervention.
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/South Donetsk)
Velyka Novosilka/Staromlynivka Axis: RF activity is increasing following the breach at Zelene (reported 01-09). The strike on Staroukrainka (0730Z) suggests RF is attempting to soften the second line of defense to prevent UAF reserves from counter-attacking the Zelene wedge.
Pryyut/Novopavlivka: Intense engagement by the RF 150th Division against UAF drone operators (0759Z). This indicates a prioritized effort to blind UAF local reconnaissance before further ground advances.
Eastern Sector (Lyman/Krasny Liman)
Krasny Liman: RF Zapad Group is utilizing heavy Giatsint-S artillery to conduct suppression of enemy air defenses (SEAD) and EW neutralization (0731Z). This typically precedes localized mechanized assaults.
Southern Coastal Sector (Odesa/Chornomorske)
Maritime Ingress: UAVs from the Black Sea are targeting Chornomorske (0737Z). This follows yesterday’s report of ultra-low altitude UAV profiles (30m), suggesting a continued effort to penetrate the southern air defense envelope via maritime routes.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action (Tactical): The introduction of FPV-deployed anti-vehicle spikes (0746Z) marks a significant adaptation in RF interdiction tactics. This is likely intended to compensate for the difficulty of precision strikes on moving targets by creating static hazards on critical Ground Lines of Communication (GLOCs).
C2 Targeting: Significant focus on UAF drone control centers in the Pryyut/Novopavlivka area suggests RF is attempting to achieve local "drone superiority" by targeting the operators and infrastructure rather than just the platforms.
Logistics: Moscow municipal sources indicate that main supply routes (MSRs) within the Russian rear are being cleared of heavy snow (0757Z), which will likely resume the flow of ammunition that was previously delayed.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Operational Stress: Footage showing poor conditions and morale issues within some units (0733Z, Butusov Plus) highlights the strain of prolonged winter combat and the potential impact of mobilization inconsistencies.
Defensive Posture: UAF continues to leverage EW and camouflaged positions in the Krasny Liman direction to mitigate heavy artillery disadvantages, though these assets are currently under targeted fire (0731Z).
Information environment / disinformation
Strategic Narrative (France): The Le Monde report regarding Macron’s troop discussions (0751Z) is being amplified by pro-RF channels to reinforce the "NATO intervention" narrative, likely to justify the recent "Oreshnik" strike on Lviv as a preemptive measure.
Economic Propaganda: State media (TASS/Новости Москвы) is heavily promoting claims of 100% salary growth over five years (0739Z) to bolster domestic support and offset the economic reality of the prolonged conflict.
G7 Delay Rumors: Unconfirmed reports (Alex Parker, 0735Z) suggesting G7 dates were shifted for US domestic political reasons (Trump/UFC) are likely intended to portray Western alliances as fragmented and non-serious. (LOW CONFIDENCE/DISINFORMATION)
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued UAV strikes on the Chornomorske/Odesa axis using low-altitude terrain-masking. RF will likely attempt a localized push in the Krasny Liman sector following the current artillery preparation.
MDCOA: Deployment of "Boomerang" spike-drones across the H-15 highway near Bratskoye to paralyze UAF reinforcement of the Zaporizhzhia breach, followed by a multi-regiment assault.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Boomerang Visuals: Immediate requirement for imagery or physical recovery of the FPV spike-deployment mechanism to develop countermeasures.
Staroukrainka BDA: Determine the status of UAF personnel and equipment following the 14th Guards Spetsnaz strike.
Chornomorske Impact: Monitor for BDA at Chornomorske to confirm if the 30m altitude UAV tactic is successfully bypassing local SHORAD.
SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB)
The battlefield is evolving into a high-friction environment where RF is increasingly targeting the "infrastructure" of tactical warfare—EW nodes, drone pilots, and logistical roads (via spikes). The Telegram outage (reported 0726Z) continues to hamper real-time coordination, giving RF an advantage in sectors where they have established centralized C2.
//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//
Logistics Security: Drivers on GLOCs in the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk sectors must be briefed on the "spike-drone" threat. Conduct visual road inspections before high-value convoy movements.
Drone Operator Dispersion: Units in Pryyut and Novopavlivka must further decentralize drone control points and utilize remote antenna extensions to mask operator locations from RF 150th Div reconnaissance.
SHORAD Repositioning: Move visual-range SHORAD (e.g., Starstreak, L37A2) to coastal overlooks near Chornomorske to intercept low-altitude UAVs that radar may fail to track.
