COMMUNICATIONS – TELEGRAM GLOBAL OUTAGE (0726Z, Operatsiya Z, HIGH): Confirmed global instability/outage of the Telegram platform, following localized Ukrainian disruptions earlier this morning. This severely impacts real-time tactical reporting and civilian early warning systems.
DEEP STRIKE – "ORESHNIK" IMPACT IN LVIV (0718Z/0725Z, Operativno ZSU/Kotsnews, HIGH): Assessment of a Russian "Oreshnik" ballistic missile strike on Lviv. Local reports characterize damage as "terrible"; ISW analysis suggests the strike is intended to intimidate "Coalition of the Willing" nations considering troop deployments.
AERIAL THREAT – UAV SALLIES & KAB STRIKES (0705Z-0722Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): Active UAV waves are currently transiting Poltava (heading for Hrebinka), Mykolaiv (heading for Berezanka), and Kyiv (heading for Zhurivka). Simultaneously, RF tactical aviation has launched KABs (Guided Aerial Bombs) at Eastern Kharkiv and Donetsk.
TACTICAL COMBAT – POKROVSK URBAN WARFARE (0718Z, Tsaplienko/425th Reg, HIGH): Video evidence from the 425th "Skela" Regiment confirms high-degree coordination between FPV drone operators and ground assault groups within snowy urban blocks of Pokrovsk.
OFFENSIVE OPS – KONSTANTINOVKA AXIS (0725Z, Dnevnik Desantnika, MEDIUM): Pro-RF sources report renewed offensive operations in the Konstantinovka direction, supported by tactical maps showing movement into contested zones.
INFRASTRUCTURE – KYIV ENERGY CRISIS (0718Z, Colonelcassad, HIGH): DTEK confirms emergency power shutdowns in Kyiv continue and are "unpredictable." Expected temperature drops and the use of electricity for heating are likely to cause further grid instability.
Operational picture (by sector)
Eastern Sector (Pokrovsk/Konstantinovka)
Pokrovsk: High-intensity urban combat continues. The 425th "Skela" Regiment is actively employing "drone-first" assault tactics, using FPVs to clear structures before infantry entry (0718Z). Combat is occurring in heavy snow, complicating ground maneuvers.
Konstantinovka: RF forces have initiated a renewed tactical push (0725Z). This likely aims to exploit the focus on Pokrovsk to gain flanking positions or sever local supply lines.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Mykolaiv)
Zaporizhzhia: RF "Vostok" group claims continued "successes" (0704Z, Archangel Spetsnaz), likely building on the previously reported capture of Zelene to threaten the H-15 highway.
Mykolaiv: A UAV wave is currently entering the sector from the south, targeting Berezanka (0708Z).
Kyiv: UAVs approaching from the southeast (Zhurivka) (0722Z). The capital remains under severe energy stress with unprognosticated emergency blackouts (0718Z).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action (Tactical): The RF is maintaining a high operational tempo by synchronizing long-range ballistic strikes (Oreshnik), medium-range UAV swarms, and tactical KAB launches. This "layered" pressure is designed to overwhelm UA Air Defense and civil resilience simultaneously.
Strategic Intimidation: The use of "Oreshnik" on Lviv (0718Z) signals a willingness to strike Western Ukrainian hubs to disrupt the flow of Western material and deter international intervention.
Logistics/Sustainment: Volunteer efforts to equip RF mobile anti-drone units with "kung" kits and turrets (0703Z, Colonelcassad) indicate an industrial-scale adaptation to UA drone supremacy.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Tactics: High proficiency in drone-infantry integration demonstrated by the 425th Regiment in Pokrovsk.
Force Posture: The 5th Separate Heavy Mechanized Brigade and 46th Air Assault Brigade remain operational and in high morale, as indicated by formal unit communications (0704Z).
Resource Constraints: Labor shortages in technical sectors (Dnipro Polytechnic, 0704Z) and energy instability in Kyiv present long-term sustainment risks.
Information environment / disinformation
Telegram Degradation: The global outage (0726Z) is being weaponized by pro-RF channels to create a sense of isolation and communication breakdown.
Strategic Narratives: RF sources are circulating reports (Bloomberg via RusVesna) regarding a "Free Economic Zone" in Donbas and the transfer of lithium deposits to US interests (0706Z, 0717Z). This is likely a DISINFORMATION campaign aimed at framing the Ukrainian government as "selling off" national assets to secure US support.
WWII Parallel: Pro-RF channels are marking today as the day the "SMO" equals the duration of the Great Patriotic War (WWII), likely a psychological operation to prepare the Russian domestic audience for a long-term war of attrition (0708Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued UAV/KAB strikes targeting energy infrastructure in Kyiv and Poltava to exploit the cold weather. Intensified urban assaults in Pokrovsk as RF attempts to capitalize on communication friction caused by the Telegram outage.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A second "Oreshnik" or Iskander-M strike targeting a command-and-control (C2) node or a "Coalition of the Willing" diplomatic site in Western Ukraine while Telegram is down, maximizing confusion and delaying BDA.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Lviv BDA: Detailed assessment of the "Oreshnik" impact site. Confirm if the target was industrial, logistical, or symbolic.
Konstantinovka Geometry: Verify the extent of the RF push reported at 0725Z. Determine if any UAF defensive lines have been compromised.
Lithium/FEZ Origins: Trace the "Lithium to Trump friends" narrative to confirm if it originated from legitimate financial reporting or is a manufactured RF psychological operation.
SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB)
The battlefield is characterized by extreme weather (snow) and high-tech friction. The Russian transition to using "Oreshnik" class missiles indicates a shift in the strategic signaling hierarchy. The Telegram outage creates a "fog of war" that disproportionately affects UA decentralized command structures.
//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//
Comms Hardening: Units in the Pokrovsk and Konstantinovka sectors must maintain strict radio discipline and utilize hard-wired or Starlink-based Signal/WhatsApp alternatives. Do not rely on Telegram for "last-mile" tactical alerts.
Energy Defense: Prioritize Mobile Fire Group (MFG) coverage for Kyiv's energy substations as the grid is at a "tipping point" (0718Z).
Counter-Narrative: Ukrainian StratCom must immediately address the "Lithium/Donbas FEZ" rumors to prevent RF-aligned influencers from framing current diplomatic negotiations as "asset stripping."
