Situation Report

Situation Update (2026-01-09T18:30Z)

Key updates since last sitrep

• STRATEGIC LEADERSHIP SHIFT (1803Z, РБК-Україна, HIGH): President Zelenskyy has officially submitted a motion to the Verkhovna Rada for the dismissal of Vasyl Malyuk, Head of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU).
• KYIV STRIKE MAGNITUDE (1828Z, Операция Z/KYIV24, HIGH): Mayor Vitaliy Klitschko confirmed the overnight attack on Kyiv’s critical infrastructure was the largest to date, indicating severe damage previously understated.
• RUSSIAN REAR DISRUPTION (1822Z, Два майора, MEDIUM): Confirmed major infrastructure strike in Belgorod Oblast (RF); Governor reports significant damage, likely resulting from UAF long-range assets.
• KHARKIV BATTLE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT (1820Z, Олег Синєгубов, HIGH): The previously reported strike in Kharkiv’s Slobidskyi district specifically targeted a garage cooperative, causing localized damage.
• BLACK SEA GEOPOLITICS (1802Z, Рыбарь, LOW): Reports suggest the EU plans to establish a permanent military/security foothold in the Black Sea region via Romania; currently unconfirmed by official EU/NATO channels.
• UAF COUNTER-DRONE SUCCESS (1806Z, STERNENKO, MEDIUM): The "Yokai" drone group successfully neutralized one Zala, two Lancet, and three Molniya UAVs, demonstrating effective localized counter-UAS (C-UAS) tactics.
• INTERNAL RUSSIAN REPRESSION (1820Z, ASTRA, MEDIUM): Russian authorities have implemented mobile internet shutdowns in Kamchatka to allegedly thwart UAV navigation; Z-bloggers report these measures are ineffective against autonomous flight profiles.

Operational picture (by sector)

Northern Sector (Sumy/Kharkiv/Belgorod)

• Kharkiv: Strike at 1820Z confirmed hitting a garage cooperative in Slobidskyi district. This suggests a potential "double-tap" or precision targeting error, as the area lacks primary military utility compared to industrial hubs.
• Belgorod (RF): Significant damage to infrastructure (1822Z) indicates UAF is maintaining pressure on Russian logistical nodes to disrupt the flow of reinforcements to the Northern Group of Forces.

Eastern Sector (Donbas/Pokrovsk)

• Pokrovsk: High-intensity combat continues. The "SKELYA 425" drone unit (1826Z) documented successful strikes on RF infantry in winter conditions, indicating RF is struggling to find adequate hard-cover in the snowy terrain.
• Bakhmut/Kostiantynivka: Baseline combat operations continue west of the canal; no new territorial changes reported in this window.

Central Sector (Kyiv/Restoration)

• Kyiv: Infrastructure status is critical. Restoration efforts are "constant" across Kyiv, Dnipro, and Lviv (1809Z) following the record-scale overnight strikes. The admission by Klitschko (1828Z) that this was the "largest" strike suggests the power grid may be closer to a point of failure than previously signaled.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

• Aviation/Missiles: Russian MoD is highlighting "Unmanned Systems Forces" (1818Z), emphasizing the use of FPV and ISR drones in winter operations. This confirms a shift toward drone-centric attrition to compensate for slowed mechanized movement in snow.
• Internal Security (RF): The internet shutdowns in Kamchatka (1820Z) suggest a high state of paranoia regarding UAF long-range strike capabilities reaching deep-rear Eastern military districts.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Command & Control: The move to dismiss SBU Head Malyuk (1803Z) during a period of high kinetic pressure suggests either a major internal reorganization or a shift in domestic security priorities.
• Defense Recovery: Maximum forces are deployed to restore vital services (water, heat, electricity) in 10 regions (1809Z). This is currently the primary "non-kinetic" line of effort for the UAF and State Emergency Service.
• Tactical C-UAS: Successful neutralization of high-value RF drones (Zala/Lancet) by specialized groups (1806Z) is mitigating the threat to UAF artillery and armor in the tactical depth.

Information environment / disinformation

• Russian Propaganda: RF channels are amplifying narratives of Western "double standards" regarding terrorism (1820Z) and promoting Iranian opposition calls for US intervention (1826Z) to distract from the Belgorod strikes and Kyiv's infrastructure crisis.
• Domestic Politics: The posting of 36.7M UAH bail for MPs (1803Z) is being used in the information space to potentially fuel anti-corruption narratives or internal discord during the mobilization crisis.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

• Most Likely COA: Continued RF pressure in the Pokrovsk sector using small-group infantry supported by drones. Focus will remain on exploiting the damaged power grid in Kyiv to trigger a humanitarian crisis before morning.
• Most Dangerous COA: Exploitation of the SBU leadership transition period by RF intelligence to launch a coordinated wave of sabotage or deep-rear psychological operations targeting civilian morale.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

1. SBU Transition: Identification of the interim or proposed successor for Malyuk and the immediate impact on counter-intelligence operations.
2. Kyiv Grid Integrity: Accurate technical assessment of the "largest" strike damage—specifically, are high-voltage transformers or generation capacity the primary loss?
3. Belgorod Strike Impact: Verification of the specific infrastructure targeted in Belgorod (Energy vs. Rail).

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IPB ANALYSIS (SITUATION REPORT SUPPLEMENT)

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW The operational tempo is increasingly defined by infrastructure attrition. While the ground front in Pokrovsk is stabilized by UAF drone dominance, the strategic rear (Kyiv) is under maximum strain. The dismissal of a top security official (Malyuk) during this peak pressure suggests significant internal friction or a required shift in the security architecture.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS Russia is leaning heavily into winterized drone warfare. The MoD’s promotion of "Unmanned Systems" indicates they are prioritizing low-cost attrition. The implementation of internet shutdowns in the RF Far East suggests an expansion of the "electronic dome" strategy, fearing that UAF drone range has outpaced current EW coverage.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES UAF is showing resilience in specialized niches (C-UAS, localized drone strikes), but the macro-level political environment is volatile. The dismissal of Malyuk creates a short-term intelligence vulnerability that the RF may seek to exploit via hybrid means.

4. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS Expect a surge in "restoration" updates. If the grid does not stabilize within 12 hours, we may see the first signs of organized civilian displacement from urban centers. The Belgorod strike confirms UAF will not remain passive in the face of the Kyiv campaign, suggesting a "tit-for-tat" infrastructure war is now the primary strategic modality.

//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//

1. CYBER/INTERNAL SECURITY ALERT: Increase surveillance of critical infrastructure communication nodes during the SBU leadership transition to prevent RF sabotage.
2. C-UAS SCALING: Provide immediate technical support to drone groups like "Yokai" to replicate their success against Lancets across the entire Donbas front.
3. BELGOROD BDA: Prioritize satellite/IMINT of the Belgorod strike site to confirm if Russian logistics toward the Northern Sector have been severed.

//END OF REPORT//