Situation Report

Situation Update (2026-01-09T18:00Z)

Key updates since last sitrep

• AIR THREAT ABATED (1738Z-1747Z, KMVA/Air Force UA, HIGH): All-clear issued for Kyiv and regional ballistic threats. The "long-range ballistic" threat (potentially Oreshnik) has passed for this cycle.
• KHARKIV KINETIC IMPACT (1730Z-1759Z, Kharkiv ODA, HIGH): Confirmed Russian strike on the Slobidskyi district. Preliminary damage includes shattered windows in multiple high-rise residential buildings (Олег Синєгубов, 1759Z).
• POKROVSK/DNIPROPETROVSK OFFENSIVE (1755Z, Операция Z, MEDIUM): RF "Center" Group (the "O" Group) reports active combat near Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, and—critically—within the Dnipropetrovsk regional border.
• BAKHMUT AXIS ENGAGEMENT (1738Z, Сливочный каприз, MEDIUM): Localized combat operations confirmed west of the Siverskyi Donets - Donbas Canal near Novomarkovo.
• MARITIME DETENTION UPDATE (1755Z, Два майора, MEDIUM): The Ukrainian Embassy in the US confirms Ukrainian citizens were among the crew of the Marinera (Bella 1), the Russian-flagged tanker seized by US forces (referred to as Olina in previous reports).
• KOSTIANTYNIVKA PRESSURE (1734Z, Рыбарь, MEDIUM): Reporting indicates heavy fighting on the approaches to Kostiantynivka, suggesting a multi-pronged effort to collapse the Donbas defensive arc.
• "HUMAN DRONE" ALLEGATIONS (1740Z, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС/Оперативний ЗСУ, UNCONFIRMED/LOW): Pro-Ukrainian sources are circulating footage allegedly showing RF forces using African personnel as "human kamikaze drones" (carrying TM-series mines).

Operational picture (by sector)

Northern Sector (Sumy/Kharkiv)

• Kharkiv: The Slobidskyi district strike at 1730Z confirms continued RF prioritization of urban terror to degrade civilian morale and fix UAF internal security forces.
• Sumy: Previous reports of the RF 34th Brigade in Grabovskoye remain the baseline; no new ground incursions reported in the last 60 minutes.

Eastern Sector (Donbas/Pokrovsk)

• Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad: RF "Center" Group has likely reached the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk region (1755Z). This represents a significant operational shift, moving the conflict into a previously untouched administrative region of Ukraine's industrial heartland.
• Bakhmut/Novomarkovo: Fighting west of the canal (1738Z) indicates RF attempts to widen their bridgehead to threaten the H-20 highway.
• Kostiantynivka: Heavy fighting reported (1734Z). RF is likely attempting to sever the lateral lines of communication between Kramatorsk and the southern sectors.

Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kryvyi Rih)

• Kryvyi Rih: Oleksandr Vilkul reports 1030 RF casualties and significant equipment losses (5 tanks, 18 artillery systems) in the sector over the last 24h (1753Z), suggesting high-intensity attritional defense by UAF.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

• Tactical Adaptation: RF is utilizing specialized drone units ("Rubikon Centre") for integrated strikes against armored vehicles and robotic systems (1732Z). The focus is on suppressing UAF ground-based robotics.
• Psychological Operations: A surge in Russian-aligned PSYOPs (Colonelcassad, 1743Z) targeting the 15th National Guard Brigade near Rodynske, utilizing "intercepted" messages to project a narrative of collapse and despair.
• International Force Integration: While unconfirmed (1740Z), reports of African nationals being used in high-risk "meat assaults" or as improvised explosive carriers suggest a continuing RF policy of utilizing foreign personnel to preserve core ethnic-Russian units.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Defensive Resilience: UAF continues to inflict heavy equipment losses in the Southern sector (1753Z).
• Strategic Communication: President Zelenskyy has framed the recent RF strikes as a direct response to the "Trump Peace Plan," characterizing Russian aggression as a lack of respect for US diplomatic initiatives (1745Z).
• Air Defense: Successful detection and tracking of ballistic threats allowed for timely civilian warnings, though interception rates for the Kharkiv strike remain under assessment.

Information environment / disinformation

• Maritime Tension: RF state media continues to frame the tanker seizure as "piracy," now leveraging the presence of Ukrainian crew members (1755Z) to create a wedge between the US and the Ukrainian government.
• Deportation Narratives: Reports (DW via Tsaplienko, 1748Z) regarding potential German deportation of mobilization evaders are likely being amplified by RF channels to trigger panic among the Ukrainian diaspora and undermine morale.
• Diversionary News: RF domestic feeds are prioritizing trivial news (tax debts of influencers, 1731Z) and health crises of "foreign agents" (1739Z) to distract from high casualties and the Marinera incident.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

• Most Likely COA: Continued high-intensity infantry assaults on the Pokrovsk-Dnipropetrovsk border to secure a foothold within the new administrative region. Kharkiv will likely face additional S-300 or Iskander strikes overnight.
• Most Dangerous COA: RF exploitation of the reported Novomarkovo breach to attempt a rapid encirclement of Kostiantynivka, coinciding with a new wave of Tu-22M3 sorties from AB Shaykovka.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

1. Dnipropetrovsk Incursion: Verification of RF presence depth in the Dnipropetrovsk region. Are these reconnaissance patrols or sustained mechanized elements? (Ref: 1755Z).
2. "Marinera" Crew Status: Urgent need for HUR/MFA clarification on the status and treatment of the Ukrainian crew members on the detained tanker to prevent RF IO exploitation.
3. Weapon ID (Kharkiv): Determine if the Slobidskyi district strike (1730Z) involved new missile variants or standard tactical ballistics.

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IPB ANALYSIS (SITUATION REPORT SUPPLEMENT)

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW The conflict has officially reached the Dnipropetrovsk region, marking a symbolic and operational escalation. Russia is maintaining a "high-pressure" strategy across the Pokrovsk and Bakhmut axes while using the maritime incident in the Atlantic to complicate Ukrainian-US relations.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS The "Center" Group remains the primary offensive driver. Their ability to push into Dnipropetrovsk suggests that despite high losses (1030/day), they retain enough combat power for localized breakthroughs. The use of "Rubikon Centre" drones indicates a maturing of RF's drone-specific command structures.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES UAF air defense remains reactive but effective at early warning. However, the confirmed hit in Kharkiv highlights the difficulty of protecting secondary urban hubs against short-flight-time ballistic or S-300 strikes.

4. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS The "all-clear" for Kyiv (1747Z) is likely temporary. The SAR activity at AB Shaykovka (previous report) suggests the current pause is a re-arming/cycling phase rather than a cessation of the strategic air campaign.

//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//

1. REINFORCE DNIPROPETROVSK BORDER: Immediately deploy mobile anti-tank reserves to the Pokrovsk-Dnipropetrovsk administrative boundary to prevent RF from establishing permanent fortifications in the new sector.
2. MARITIME IO COUNTER: The MFA should immediately issue a statement regarding the Ukrainian crew on the Marinera, emphasizing that they are "victims of RF exploitation" to neutralize the "piracy" narrative.
3. KHARKIV ASSET DISPERSAL: Move any remaining high-value technical or military assets out of the Slobidskyi and Saltivka districts, as RF appears to be targeting these areas with repetitive strike patterns.

//END OF REPORT//