Situation Report

Situation Update (2026-01-09T17:35Z)

Key updates since last sitrep

• CRITICAL BALLISTIC THREAT (1721Z-1724Z, КМВА/Air Force UA, HIGH): Air raid sirens active in Kyiv and multiple regions due to confirmed ballistic missile launches from the northeast. Potential "Oreshnik" or Iskander-M follow-on strikes.
• KHARKIV EXPLOSION (1729Z, Харківська ОДА, HIGH): At least one kinetic impact reported in Kharkiv following air alerts. Damage assessment is ongoing.
• SVYATOGORSK ASSAULT (1720Z, Alex Parker Returns, LOW): Unconfirmed Russian reports claim a sudden mechanized assault on Svyatogorsk, targeting the Holy Mountains Lavra area.
• LYMAN SECTOR ADVANCE (1705Z, Сливочный каприз, MEDIUM): RF forces reportedly advanced toward Alexandrovka (West of Kreminna), maintaining pressure on the Lyman axis.
• SUMY SECTOR ACTIVITY (1702Z, MoD Russia, MEDIUM): RF Sever Group (34th Separate Guards Motorised Rifle Brigade) reports "evacuation" of civilians from Grabovskoye. This indicates potential RF ground presence or cross-border raid activity in the Sumy region.
• INFRASTRUCTURE RESTORATION (1659Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH): Heat supply restored to 1,083 buildings in Kyiv following the recent "strongest" strike; however, the new ballistic threat (1721Z) risks undoing these gains.
• STRATEGIC SIGNALING (1717Z, РБК-Україна, HIGH): President Zelenskyy framed the Lviv "Oreshnik" strike as a direct challenge to Poland, Romania, and Hungary, demanding a formal allied response to "secondary aggression."

Operational picture (by sector)

Northern Sector (Sumy/Kyiv/Kharkiv)

• Sumy Axis: Identification of the RF 34th Separate Guards Motorised Rifle Brigade in Grabovskoye (1702Z) confirms the use of regular contract units for border operations. This may be a feint or a preparatory move for a larger incursion to fix UAF forces away from the Donbas.
• Kyiv: Under active ballistic threat as of 1721Z. Restoration of heating (1659Z) demonstrates high civil resilience, but the power grid remains fragile.
• Kharkiv: Kinetic impact confirmed at 1729Z. This follows a pattern of "city-kill" harassment intended to degrade urban survival.

Eastern Sector (Lyman/Svyatogorsk/Bakhmut)

• Lyman/Alexandrovka: RF claims of movement toward Alexandrovka (1705Z) suggest an attempt to envelop Lyman from the northeast.
• Svyatogorsk (UNCONFIRMED): If reports of a storming operation (1720Z) are true, this represents a significant westward shift in the front line, threatening the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration from the north.
• Bakhmut (Novomarkove): UAF 56th Motorized Infantry Brigade ("Adamakha" unit) successfully destroyed RF personnel and light vehicles (buggies/motorcycles) near Novomarkove (1713Z), indicating effective UAF drone-led defensive operations in this sub-sector.

Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia)

• No significant changes since the 1630Z report of combat near Pryluky. The front remains under high tension following the Zelene breach.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

• Tactical Innovation: RF is increasingly utilizing light, highly mobile platforms (buggies/motorcycles) for "meat assaults" near Novomarkove (1713Z) to minimize radar and thermal signatures, though UAF FPV drones remain a hard counter.
• Psychological Warfare: RF sources are circulating reports of "human drones" (1712Z, UNCONFIRMED/LOW) and Kadyrov-linked threats against the Ukrainian presidency (1717Z). These are assessed as high-noise, low-substance IO intended to distract from RF's high attrition rates.
• Force Disposition: The movement of the Sever Group in Sumy (1702Z) suggests Russia is testing the permeability of the northern border while UAF is focused on the southern and eastern breaches.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Defensive Operations: The 56th OMPBr remains combat-effective in the Bakhmut sector, utilizing localized drone superiority (1713Z).
• Strategic Communication: President Zelenskyy's address (1715Z-1718Z) emphasizes that RF's "Oreshnik" diplomacy is a threat to NATO's eastern flank, seeking to trigger more aggressive Western air defense deployments.
• Utility Management: Rapid restoration in Kyiv (1659Z) and 10 other regions (1715Z) indicates a highly efficient emergency response protocol despite continuous bombardment.

Information environment / disinformation

• Oreshnik Narrative: Pro-Russian channels are amplifying "hysterical" Western reactions (1707Z) to the Lviv strike to project an aura of invincibility.
• Geopolitical Distraction: Extensive reporting on US-Venezuela diplomatic shifts (1709Z, 1713Z) in pro-Russian feeds suggests an attempt to frame US attention as drifting away from the Ukraine theater.
• Atrocity Propaganda: Reports of an "African human drone" (1712Z) are being monitored. If confirmed, this would constitute a major war crime; if fabricated, it is a high-level Ukrainian-led IO to discredit RF forces internationally.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

• Most Likely COA: Ballistic impacts in Kyiv and Central Ukraine within the next 30-60 minutes. RF will continue high-tempo drone/artillery harassment of Kharkiv to prevent stabilization.
• Most Dangerous COA: Confirmation of a breakthrough at Svyatogorsk (1720Z), which would bypass established UAF defenses and force a chaotic withdrawal toward Slovyansk.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

1. Svyatogorsk Status: Urgent requirement for SIGINT/IMINT confirmation of RF mechanized presence in Svyatogorsk (Ref: 1720Z).
2. Grabovskoye Incursion: Determine the depth of the 34th Brigade's movement into Sumy region. Is this an "evacuation" or an occupation? (Ref: 1702Z).
3. Ballistic ID: Identify the specific missile type used in the 1721Z Kyiv alert—is it a standard Iskander or another "Oreshnik" flight test?

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IPB ANALYSIS (SITUATION REPORT SUPPLEMENT)

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW The operational tempo has surged. Russia is utilizing a "Horizontal Escalation" strategy—striking the far west (Lviv), the northern border (Sumy), and the deep rear (Kyiv) simultaneously to overstretch Ukrainian Air Defense (PPO) and reserve maneuver units.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS The RF Sever Group is transitioning from a passive border-guarding role to active cross-border operations (1702Z). The Vostok and Tsentr groups are exploiting the psychological shock of the "Oreshnik" strike to push for tactical gains in Lyman and Svyatogorsk.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES UAF is successfully managing the "attrition-by-drone" battle in the East (1713Z), but the lack of ballistic missile defense (BMD) coverage for industrial and urban centers remains the primary strategic vulnerability.

4. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS If Svyatogorsk falls, Russia will have a direct path to threaten the northern flank of the Donbas fortress cities. Simultaneously, the threat of the death penalty for Iranian protesters (1716Z) may trigger domestic instability in Iran, potentially impacting the delivery of Shahed-series UAVs in the 14-21 day window.

//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//

1. AIR DEFENSE RE-PRIORITIZATION: Move mobile SHORAD units to the Sumy border to counter "Sever Group" incursions and low-altitude drone activity.
2. SVYATOGORSK BLOCKING: Immediately dispatch elements of the 1st Tank Brigade to the Svyatogorsk axis to provide a heavy-armor screen against the reported mechanized assault.
3. IO LEVERAGE: Utilize the reported RF "evacuation" in Sumy (1702Z) to highlight "forced deportations" to the international community, countering the RF narrative of humanitarian aid.

//END OF REPORT//