Situation Report

Situation Update (2026-01-09T17:00Z)

Key updates since last sitrep

• ORESHNIK IMPACT CONFIRMED (1634Z, Оперативний ЗСУ/Reuters, HIGH): An Oreshnik ballistic missile strike on a state enterprise in Lviv is confirmed. Submunitions caused minor structural damage to a workshop and created craters in an adjacent forest area.
• CIVILIAN MARITIME ATTACK (1630Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, MEDIUM): Russian forces have reportedly launched strikes against civilian vessels within the Ukrainian maritime corridor near Odesa, escalating the "tanker war" in response to the Olina seizure.
• STAVKA REORGANIZATION (1631Z, РБК-Україна, HIGH): President Zelenskyy has issued a decree altering the composition of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief's Staff (Stavka). Specific personnel changes are currently under assessment.
• SOUTHERN AXIS EXPANSION (1630Z, Сливочный каприз, MEDIUM): Active combat operations are confirmed in the Huliaipole sector, specifically near the settlement of Pryluky, indicating an expansion of the RF offensive beyond the Zelene breach.
• KRASNY LYMAN ADVANCE (1648Z, Дневник Десантника, MEDIUM): RF sources claim tactical advances west of the Kreminna line toward Lyman.
• KYIV INFRASTRUCTURE STATUS (1638Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Mayor Klitschko characterized the recent night strike on Kyiv as the "strongest" to date; significant infrastructure degradation persists despite partial utility restoration.

Operational picture (by sector)

Northern Sector (Lviv/Kyiv/Kupyansk)

• Lviv: The Oreshnik strike on a state enterprise (1634Z) confirms the use of high-velocity delivery systems for industrial interdiction. Damage appears limited but the psychological and signaling impact remains the primary RF objective.
• Kyiv: Restoration efforts are ongoing (1658Z), but the capital remains vulnerable to follow-on strikes. The Stavka reorganization (1631Z) likely addresses defensive shortcomings identified during the "strongest" night strike.
• Kupyansk: No new ground data since 1610Z, but the sector remains under high threat from isolated infiltration groups.

Eastern Sector (Lyman/Pokrovsk)

• Lyman Axis: RF paratrooper elements claim advances (1648Z). Visual evidence (1642Z) confirms high-intensity fighting in snowy treelines with significant RF casualties, suggesting a "meat assault" pattern persists despite claims of progress.
• Pokrovsk: Infrastructure repair crews are working under constant threat (1658Z).

Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Huliaipole)

• Huliaipole/Pryluky: New combat activity near Pryluky (1630Z) suggests the RF "Vostok" Group is attempting to widen the penetration point created at Zelene to fix UAF reserves across a broader front.
• Odesa/Maritime: RF has transitioned to targeting civilian shipping (1630Z, 1645Z). This confirms the MDCOA from the Daily Report: asymmetric retaliation for the US seizure of the tanker Olina.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

• Tactical Shift: RF is now weaponizing "normalcy" in international shipping by conducting a "tanker war" (1645Z). This is intended to drive up insurance premiums and deter the use of the Ukrainian maritime corridor.
• Strategic Weapons: The Oreshnik employment is assessed as a "fear-based" operation (1650Z) intended to deter Western intervention as EU plans for a Black Sea military presence emerge (1645Z).
• Logistics: Despite claims of advances, the discovery of dead RF personnel in standard-issue winter gear in "green belts" (1642Z) suggests high attrition during infiltration attempts.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Command & Control: The restructuring of the Stavka (1631Z) indicates a potential shift in tactical management or a response to the recent loss of Zelene.
• Resilience Operations: Repair brigades are active across 10 regions (Kyiv, Dnipro, Lviv, Odesa, etc.) to stabilize the energy grid (1658Z).
• Diplomatic Reinforcement: MFA reports (1653Z) indicate imminent deliveries of additional Air Defense (PPO) systems and energy equipment to counter the "January Blackout" campaign.

Information environment / disinformation

• Maritime Narrative: Pro-Russian channels (Two Majors, 1645Z) are framing EU maritime security initiatives as "escalatory military presence," likely to justify upcoming RF strikes on commercial vessels.
• Internal Iranian Discord: Rapidly evolving protests in Iran (1634Z, 1636Z) are being monitored for their potential to disrupt the RU-Iran "Shahed" supply chain.
• Cultural Hybrid Ops: RF is leveraging the cancellation of Russian artists in Italy (1632Z) to bolster domestic "Russophobia" narratives.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

• Most Likely COA: RF will continue drone and missile harassment of Odesa port infrastructure and civilian shipping to force a halt to maritime exports.
• Most Dangerous COA: Exploitation of the Pryluky/Huliaipole axis to threaten the H-15 highway from a second direction, potentially bypassing UAF blocking positions at Bratskoye.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

1. Stavka Composition: Identify specific personnel removed/added to the Stavka to determine shifts in defensive strategy.
2. Maritime Damage Assessment: Confirm specific names and flags of civilian vessels targeted near Odesa (1630Z) to gauge the level of international escalation.
3. Pryluky Ground Truth: Determine if the activity near Pryluky (1630Z) is a reconnaissance-in-force or a full-scale mechanized assault.

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IPB ANALYSIS (SITUATION REPORT SUPPLEMENT)

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW The conflict has entered a Strategic Retaliation Phase. Following the Olina seizure, Russia has discarded previous constraints regarding civilian shipping. Simultaneously, the Oreshnik strike confirms that no depth in Ukraine—even the far west—is immune to high-velocity strikes.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS RF "Vostok" Group (South) and "Tsentr" Group (East) are maintaining high operational tempo despite severe weather. The use of "meat assaults" in the Lyman sector (1642Z) suggests a prioritization of terrain gains over personnel preservation before the next major international diplomatic window.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES UAF is currently in a Defensive-Restorative Posture. The focus is on stabilizing the energy grid and the Southern front. The Stavka shake-up suggests the President is dissatisfied with current defensive performance in either the Southern breakthrough or the Air Defense response to the "strongest" Kyiv strikes.

4. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS Expect RF to use the "Oreshnik" successful impact in Lviv to fuel a massive IO campaign targeting European populations, framing resistance as "futile." Tactically, the Huliaipole-Pryluky axis is the new critical point of concern for the next 24 hours.

//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//

1. MARITIME DEFENSE: Immediately deploy Neptune and R-360 coastal batteries to the Odesa corridor to provide a "kill zone" around civilian shipping lanes.
2. SOUTHERN RESERVES: Commit a portion of the 7th Air Assault Corps specifically to the Pryluky axis to prevent an envelopment of Huliaipole.
3. IO COUNTER: Release footage of RF casualties from the Lyman/Krasny Lyman sector (ref: 1642Z) to counter the Russian narrative of "unstoppable" advances.

//END OF REPORT//