Situation Report

Situation Update (2026-01-09T16:30Z)

Key updates since last sitrep

• ORESHNIK EMPLOYMENT - LVIV (1611Z, Операция Z via Reuters, LOW): UNCONFIRMED reports indicate a Russian strike using "Oreshnik" ballistic missile inert payloads targeting a state enterprise in Lviv. This follows the 1530Z report of a near-border impact in the same region.
• KUPYANSK INFILTRATION (1610Z, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, MEDIUM): Reports indicate a breakdown in communication with Russian assault groups in the Kupyansk sector. Small elements have reportedly successfully infiltrated the city, exploiting heavy snowfall for concealment.
• LYMAN SECTOR ATTRITION (1602Z, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, HIGH): The UAF 63rd Separate Mechanized Brigade reported significant tactical success on Jan 8, confirming 48 Russian KIA, 13 WIA, and 4 POWs via visual evidence.
• LOGISTICAL DRONE DEPLOYMENT (1620Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH): The 210th Separate Assault Battalion (UAF) has successfully operationalized cargo drones for last-mile delivery of ammunition, food, and medical supplies directly to frontline positions.
• STRATEGIC ASSET TRANSFER (1602Z, ТАСС/NYT, MEDIUM): Ukraine has reportedly granted lithium mining rights at the "Dobra" field to investors linked to the US political sphere (Ronald Lauder), signaling long-term economic alignment.
• RF REAR DISRUPTION (1613Z-1615Z, Multiple Sources, MEDIUM): Simultaneous disruptions in the RF including a drone threat alert across Lipetsk Oblast, persistent luggage processing failures at Sheremetyevo (4+ hours), and weather-related power outages in Bryansk.

Operational picture (by sector)

Northern Sector (Kupyansk/Lviv)

• Kupyansk: The situation is critical but non-linear. While Russian command has reportedly lost contact with several assault groups, the confirmed presence of "leaked" infiltrators within city limits (1610Z) suggests a decentralized urban combat phase is beginning.
• Lviv: If the Oreshnik strike on a state enterprise is confirmed (1611Z), it represents a shift from "border signaling" to "industrial interdiction" using high-velocity assets.

Eastern Sector (Lyman/Pokrovsk)

• Lyman Axis: High-intensity defensive success by the 63rd Brigade (1602Z) demonstrates the effectiveness of Ukrainian drone-artillery coordination (BBS pilots) in open-field attrition.
• Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk): RF "Tsentr" Group is utilizing Grad MLRS to target UAF manpower clusters (1623Z). Russian sources describe the approach as a "road of death" (1600Z), indicating heavy fire control over Ukrainian GLOCs.

Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia)

• Zelene/Gaychur River: The RF 14th Guards Spetsnaz (Vostok Group) is active with FPV drones, targeting Ukrainian armor in the sector (1600Z).
• Air Defense: The air alert for Zaporizhzhia was cleared at 1619Z (OVA), suggesting the previously reported drone swarm has been intercepted or has passed.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

• Tactical Infiltration: The use of weather (snowfall) in Kupyansk to mask small-unit movements indicates a shift toward "low-visibility" tactics where standard thermal/optical UAV reconnaissance is degraded.
• Strategic Signaling: Russian state media is heavily amplifying the Oreshnik strike and Kadyrov’s threats against the Ukrainian presidency (1613Z) to maintain psychological pressure.
• Infrastructure Targeting: A summary of Russian strikes (1627Z) highlights a systematic campaign against the Ukrainian energy grid throughout early January, aiming for "January blackouts."

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Technological Adaptation: The 210th Battalion’s use of cargo drones (1620Z) mitigates the risk to ground logistics teams in "grey zones" and high-threat sectors like Pokrovsk.
• Resource Generation: Coordinated fundraising efforts by prominent activists (Sternenko, 1621Z) continue to leverage frontline footage to sustain the supply of "Rusoriz" FPV systems.

Information environment / disinformation

• Economic Narratives: TASS is framing the Dobra lithium deal as "giving away" national resources to US billionaires (1602Z), likely intended to stoke domestic Ukrainian resentment.
• NATO Fragmentation: Pro-Ukrainian channels are monitoring Russian-amplified narratives regarding France potentially exiting NATO (1628Z) to exploit perceived cracks in Western unity.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

• Most Likely COA: Ukrainian forces in Kupyansk will conduct house-to-house clearing operations to neutralize isolated Russian infiltration groups.
• Most Dangerous COA: Continued Oreshnik strikes on Lviv/Western Ukraine could trigger a more aggressive Polish/NATO response if payloads continue to land within close proximity to the border.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

1. Kupyansk Ground Truth: Determine the exact depth of infiltration by the Russian groups that lost contact with their HQ.
2. Lviv Impact Assessment: Corroborate the "Reuters" report regarding the Lviv state enterprise strike; identify the specific facility and damage level.
3. Lipetsk Drone Target: Monitor if the Lipetsk UAV threat results in kinetic impact on RF industrial or military sites.

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IPB ANALYSIS (SITUATION REPORT SUPPLEMENT)

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW The battlefield is currently characterized by Weather-Gated Operations. Heavy snowfall is being leveraged by RF for infiltration (Kupyansk) while simultaneously hindering their logistics and command-and-control. Conversely, UAF is successfully utilizing the static nature of the front in Lyman to maximize attrition via drone pilots.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS Russian forces are demonstrating a lack of operational cohesion in the North, with "lost" assault groups indicating poor junior leadership and communication equipment failure in winter conditions. However, the continued use of Oreshnik systems—even with inert payloads—demonstrates a high-level intent to sustain strategic escalation regardless of tactical-level inefficiencies.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES UAF is moving toward Autonomous Logistics. The deployment of cargo drones (1620Z) is a critical response to the "Road of Death" fire control established by Russian MLRS in the Pokrovsk sector. This allows for the sustainment of isolated positions without risking transport vehicles.

4. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS Expect a significant Information Operation (IO) push from the Kremlin regarding the "Dobra Lithium" deal to frame the Ukrainian government as "puppets" of the US. Tactically, if the Kupyansk infiltrators are not neutralized within 12 hours, they will likely establish "islands of resistance" to support a larger follow-on Russian push once weather clears.

//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//

1. URBAN CLEARING (KUPYANSK): Deploy specialized thermal-equipped CQB teams to Kupyansk to locate and neutralize infiltrators before dawn.
2. LOGISTICAL UPSCALING: Accelerate the distribution of heavy-lift cargo drones to the Pokrovsk and Lyman sectors to bypass RF fire control over primary supply routes.
3. STRATEGIC COMMUNICATONS: UA MFA should pre-emptively clarify the Dobra lithium tender process to counter the "asset-stripping" narrative being pushed by RF state media.

//END OF REPORT//