Situation Report

Situation Update (2026-01-09T13:00Z)

Key updates since last sitrep

• STRATEGIC DEFENSE PARTNERSHIP (12:33Z, Operativnyi ZSU, HIGH): Ukraine and the United Kingdom signed a 100-year partnership roadmap for defense cooperation.
• CONTESTED STATUS OF ZELENOYE (12:32Z, TASS, MEDIUM): Contrary to earlier Russian MoD claims of total control, Russian state media reports five UAF counterattacks to retake Zelenoye (Zaporizhzhia), indicating the settlement remains a high-intensity engagement zone.
• US SEIZURE OF "SHADOW FLEET" TANKER (12:59Z, WSJ/Reuters, HIGH): US Coast Guard has seized the oil tanker Olina in the Caribbean (near Trinidad) for sanctions violations related to Russian oil.
• MASSIVE UTILITY FAILURE IN BELGOROD (12:31Z, Kots/Starshe Eddy, HIGH): Large-scale power and heating outages reported in Belgorod Oblast, affecting approx. 500,000 residents following Ukrainian night strikes.
• INTERNAL SECURITY SUCCESS (12:30Z, PGO, HIGH): Ukrainian authorities dismantled a multi-regional corruption network facilitating mobilization evasion involving 1.3 million UAH.
• MARITIME UAV THREAT TO ODESA (12:33Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): Fresh detection of Russian UAVs approaching Odesa from the Black Sea.
• CZECH DIPLOMATIC RESOLUTION (12:25Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): Czech Foreign Minister confirmed the resolution of recent diplomatic tensions, stabilizing the "ammunition initiative" framework.

Operational picture (by sector)

Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson/Odesa)

• Zaporizhzhia (Zelenoye): The tactical situation is fluid. The Russian admission of five UAF counterattacks (12:32Z) suggests that while Russian forces may have entered the settlement, they have not achieved stable defensive consolidation.
• Odesa/Black Sea: Continued use of maritime launch corridors. A new UAV wave is inbound from the sea (12:33Z), confirming that the RF is prioritizing the Odesa logistical hub to offset UAF successes in the "Shadow Fleet" interdiction.
• Zaporizhzhia City: Air raid sirens were deactivated at 12:52Z, but the region remains on high alert following the Gaychur River breakthrough.

Eastern Sector (Donbas)

• Pokrovsk Axis: RU sources (Colonelcassad, 12:35Z) claim to have "trapped" UAF units in Dymytrov/Krasnoarmiysk. UNCONFIRMED (LOW CONFIDENCE): This is likely an information operation to induce panic; visual evidence only shows a few PoWs. UAF drone units continue to operate effectively in this sector (Sternenko, 12:49Z).
• Dnipro: Energy infrastructure remains under severe pressure following "Geran" (Shahed) strikes (12:47Z). Localized blackouts persist.

Northern Sector & RF Rear

• Belgorod: Significant degradation of the RF home front. 500,000 civilians without heat/power during sub-zero temperatures creates a major logistical burden for the RF military, which must now divert resources to civil stability.
• Lipetsk: "UAV Attack Threat" remains active (12:50Z), indicating sustained UAF deep-strike pressure on RF industrial/AD nodes.
• Moscow/Belarus: Severe weather (snowstorm) has paralyzed the MKAD (12:53Z) and prompted PR stunts by Belarusian leadership (12:39Z), likely aimed at masking domestic infrastructure fragility.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

• Course of Action (COA): RF is doubling down on "City-Kill" tactics against Dnipro/Kyiv while attempting to frame UAF tactical withdrawals in the East as "cauldrons."
• Hybrid Tactics: Use of historical narratives (Trump/Greenland/Iran unrest) to flood the information space and distract from the seizure of the Olina and the Belgorod utility collapse.
• Logistics: RF vehicle shortages are being partially mitigated by civilian "Bukhanka" vans, but heavy snow is significantly slowing their resupply efforts across the Northern and Eastern axes.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Diplomatic Victory: The UK 100-year partnership (12:33Z) provides a long-term strategic anchor that offsets US political uncertainty.
• Counter-Offensive Actions: UAF is not conceding the Southern breakthrough; the 5 counterattacks in Zelenoye demonstrate a high-tempo tactical reserve response.
• Infrastructure Resilience: Kyiv (KMDA) is successfully managing public panic regarding heating systems through proactive communication (12:31Z).

Information environment / disinformation

• "Cauldron" Narrative: Pro-RU channels are amplifying claims of encircled UAF troops near Pokrovsk. This is currently assessed as PSYOP to force a premature withdrawal.
• Sanctions Counter-Narrative: RU sources are highlighting Trump's alleged release of the Marinera crew (12:39Z) to signal a "weakening" of US resolve, despite the simultaneous seizure of the Olina.
• Reflexive Control: Using Iran's internal unrest (12:41Z) to justify potential domestic crackdowns within the RF and to frame Western intelligence as the "universal saboteur."

Outlook (next 6-12h)

• MLCOA: Continued UAV strikes on Odesa to disrupt port infrastructure. High-intensity fighting to continue in Zelenoye.
• MDCOA: RF may attempt a breakthrough in the Pokrovsk sector to capitalize on the "encirclement" narrative they are currently building in the information domain.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

1. Verification of Olina Cargo: Confirm if the seized tanker was carrying oil destined for Western "shadow" buyers or direct RF state-linked entities.
2. Belgorod Assessment: Determine the extent to which the Belgorod utility failure is impacting military logistics (e.g., fuel heating, repair shops).
3. Zelenoye Control: Need high-resolution drone/satellite imagery to determine the current Line of Contact (LOC) within the settlement.

---

IPB ANALYSIS (SITUATION REPORT SUPPLEMENT)

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW The conflict has expanded into a Global Maritime-Economic War with the US seizure of the Olina. On the ground, the battlefield is defined by High-Intensity Contestation in the South and Information-Heavy Attrition in the East. The weather is increasingly a combatant, favoring static defense over mechanized maneuver.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS The RF is struggling with rear-area vulnerability (Belgorod, Lipetsk). Their tactical adaptation is to use information operations (Pokrovsk "cauldron" claims) to achieve what they cannot currently achieve through maneuver due to the snow and UAF drone density.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES UAF is successfully balancing tactical defense with strategic diplomacy (UK/Czech deals). The focus on internal anti-corruption (mobilization schemes) is critical for maintaining long-term force generation legitimacy.

4. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS The next 6 hours will see a peak in RU information pressure regarding the Pokrovsk axis. Simultaneously, the Odesa UAV wave (12:33Z) suggests a coordinated attempt to "punish" the maritime domain following the Olina seizure.

//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//

1. COUNTER-PSYOP: Immediately release footage of UAF operations on the Pokrovsk axis to debunk the "cauldron/encirclement" narrative and maintain troop morale.
2. REAR AREA SECURITY: Increase SHORAD coverage around Dnipro's energy nodes, as the "double-tap" threat remains high following the night strikes.
3. MARITIME COORDINATION: Leverage the new UK partnership to request immediate maritime surveillance support in the Black Sea to track UAV launch vessels/platforms.

//END OF REPORT//