Situation Report

Situation Update (2026-01-09T12:30Z)

Key updates since last sitrep

• UNCONFIRMED: CAPTURE OF ZELENOYE (12:13Z, MoD Russia, LOW): Russian MoD claims units of the 394th Guards Motorised Rifle Regiment (Vostok Group) have taken control of Zelenoye in the Zaporizhzhia region.
• KYIV CASUALTY INCREASE (12:12Z, RBK-Ukraine/DSNS, HIGH): State Emergency Service (DSNS) confirms the death toll from recent strikes on Kyiv has risen to four.
• CZECH AMMUNITION INITIATIVE EXTENSION (12:10Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): The Czech Foreign Minister, during a briefing in Kyiv, confirmed the continuation of the "ammunition initiative" to supply UAF with critical artillery shells.
• INFRASTRUCTURE MITIGATION IN KYIV (12:22Z, Tsaplienko/KMDA, MEDIUM): Kyiv City State Administration clarified that draining water from heating systems is a standard technical procedure during sub-zero accidents to prevent pipe bursts, not an indicator of long-term failure.
• MARITIME THREAT TO ODESA (12:05Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): A Russian UAV has been detected over the Black Sea, currently on a vector toward Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi.
• LIPETSK AIR HAZARD (12:24Z, Igor Artamonov, MEDIUM): Russian authorities have declared an "air hazard" mode in the Lipetsk region (RF Rear), indicating potential UAF drone activity or AD mobilization.
• KHERSON MEDICAL CASUALTIES (12:11Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): The number of medical workers injured in the systematic targeting of Kherson's medical infrastructure has risen to three.

Operational picture (by sector)

Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson/Odesa)

• Zaporizhzhia: The claim of RU control over Zelenoye (12:13Z) suggests a localized push by the Vostok Group of Forces. This follows yesterday's reported breakthrough near the Gaychur River.
• Odesa: Persistent threat from the maritime domain. The detection of a UAV heading for Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi (12:05Z) reinforces the assessment that RF is utilizing the Black Sea as a launch and transit corridor to bypass mainland AD.
• Kherson: Continued attrition of the civilian medical support network, with rising injuries among medical staff (12:11Z).

Eastern Sector (Donbas)

• Kostiantynivka: Social media reports (12:08Z) describe a "grim" tactical situation, likely due to heavy shelling and proximity to the Bakhmut-Chasiv Yar axis.
• Donetsk Axis: Russian volunteer channels are mobilizing for the "5th motorcade," indicating a push to reinforce logistical throughput for DNR-based units despite the weather (12:05Z).
• Tactical Losses: RU sources provided visual confirmation of a destroyed UAF armored fighting vehicle (AFV) in a forest belt, likely in the Vostok Group's AOR (12:00Z).

Northern Sector (Kyiv/RF Rear)

• Kyiv: Focus remains on humanitarian recovery and stabilizing the grid. The clarification on "water draining" (12:22Z) suggests the administration is managing public expectations during sub-zero temperatures.
• RF Rear (Lipetsk/Moscow): Air hazard alerts in Lipetsk (12:24Z) suggest the RF is sensitive to deep strikes. Meanwhile, heavy snow continues to paralyze non-military logistics even in Moscow (12:18Z).

Enemy activity / threat assessment

• Strategic Summary: RU MoD released a summary of strikes from Jan 3-9 (12:10Z), confirming a deliberate campaign targeting drone production, fuel depots, and airfield infrastructure. This aligns with the observed strategy of degrading UAF's long-range strike capacity.
• Counter-USV Tactics: RU-linked tactical channels (Rybar) claim a significant reduction in the effectiveness of Ukrainian Unmanned Surface Vehicles (USVs) due to improved electronic warfare and physical barriers in the Black Sea (12:09Z).
• Hybrid Escalation (External): Pro-Russian channels are highlighting Iranian domestic unrest and the grounding of flights to Iran (12:08Z, 12:21Z), attempting to link Western "interference" in the Middle East to the Ukraine conflict.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Diplomatic Sustainment: The extension of the Czech ammunition initiative (12:10Z) is a vital offset to current shell hunger on the Eastern front.
• Infrastructure Resilience: KMDA's proactive communication regarding heating systems (12:22Z) indicates an effort to maintain public morale and counter "freeze" narratives.

Information environment / disinformation

• "Deal" Narratives: RU sources are amplifying quotes attributed to Donald Trump claiming that both Putin and Zelenskyy "want a deal" (12:21Z). This is likely aimed at softening Western support by framing the conflict as nearing a diplomatic conclusion.
• Third World War Alarmism: Tactical channels (Archangel Spetsnaza) are promoting "World War III" rhetoric (12:01Z), a common reflexive control tactic used to induce "escalation paralysis" in Western audiences.
• Reflexive Control (Iran): RU state media is using the Iran protests to justify potential harsh measures against Starlink users (12:21Z), framing satellite internet as a tool for "foreign-led sabotage."

Outlook (next 6-12h)

• MLCOA: Continued UAV/missile harassment of Odesa and coastal nodes. RF will likely attempt to consolidate the reported gain in Zelenoye to threaten the H-15 highway further.
• MDCOA: A coordinated strike on Kyiv’s stabilized energy hubs during the peak of the current cold snap to overwhelm the technical mitigation measures mentioned by KMDA.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

1. Verification of Zelenoye: Independent confirmation (UAV or satellite) required to verify the loss of Zelenoye.
2. Odesa Vector: Tracking of the UAV currently over the Black Sea. Determine if this is a reconnaissance probe or an initial wave of a larger strike.
3. Lipetsk Alert: Determine the nature of the "air hazard" in Lipetsk—possible UAF drone ingress or a false positive from sensitive RU AD during weather-related visibility issues.

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IPB ANALYSIS (SITUATION REPORT SUPPLEMENT)

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW The conflict is currently characterized by Winter Infrastructure Warfare and Sector-Specific Attrition. Russia is attempting to exploit the weather to freeze out urban centers (Kyiv, Kherson) while making incremental territorial gains in the Zaporizhzhia sector.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS The RF is shifting its narrative from "Special Military Operation" to a "Global Conflict" footing, as seen in recent propaganda regarding the "Oreshnik" and "World War III." Tactically, the claim on Zelenoye suggests they are looking for weak points in the Southern line where weather may have slowed UAF mechanized response.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES UAF continues to face a critical logistical challenge (35cm snow and GLOC disruptions), but the diplomatic success with the Czech Republic ensures a pipeline for artillery—the primary counter to RF "meat assaults."

4. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS The next 12 hours will be critical for Odesa's air defense. The maritime UAV vector is a known RU tactic to bypass the main radar arrays oriented toward Crimea and the Northern borders. In Zaporizhzhia, if Zelenoye is confirmed lost, the UAF will need to reinforce the flanks near the Gaychur River to prevent a larger envelopment.

//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//

1. AD REORIENTATION: Immediately alert AD units in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi to expect low-altitude maritime-vector UAVs.
2. STRATEGIC COMM: Counter the "Trump/Deal" narrative by emphasizing the Czech Republic's long-term military commitment, signaling to the front line that aid remains consistent despite political rhetoric.
3. CIVIL DEFENSE: Ensure the KMDA's explanation of "water draining" is disseminated via all national channels to prevent panic in other cities facing similar infrastructure strikes.

//END OF REPORT//