Situation Report

Situation Update (2026-01-09T10:58Z)

Key updates since last sitrep

• KYIV POWER GRID COLLAPSE (1051Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): The entire capital has transitioned to emergency power shutdowns. This follows previous reports of 400,000 families without power; the situation is now systemic city-wide.
• INFRASTRUCTURE SELF-PRESERVATION (1031Z, Dva Mayora, HIGH): Residents in Kyiv are reportedly draining water from heating systems (radiators) to prevent pipe bursts as temperatures remain below freezing and heating fails.
• LVIV INFRASTRUCTURE ASSESSMENT (1042Z, Operativnyi ZSU, MEDIUM): Ukrainian MP Nahornyak confirmed that gas infrastructure in the Lviv region was not the primary target of recent "Oreshnik" strikes and has not suffered critical damage.
• RU AERIAL EXPANSION IN ZAPORIZHZHIA (1033Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): RU 11th Army (Vostok Group) aviation has intensified FAB (Guided Bomb) strikes on UAF concentrations in Zaliznychne, west of Huliaipole, signaling an intent to isolate the Huliaipole stronghold.
• BORDER ENGAGEMENT IN SUMY (1057Z, Slivochnyi Kapriz, LOW): UNCONFIRMED reports of Russian activity and localized territorial claims along the Krasnopillia-Hrabovske axis.
• KONSTANTINOVKA OFFENSIVE (1043Z, Kotenok, MEDIUM): Russian "Yug" Group forces have increased pressure on the Konstantinovka sector, threatening the defensive line near Chasiv Yar.
• KHERSON DRONE OPERATIONS (1049Z, TASS, MEDIUM): RU "Lancet" and "Zala" UAVs are reportedly targeting UAF equipment on the right bank of the Dnipro.

Operational picture (by sector)

Northern Sector (Kyiv/Sumy/Kharkiv)

• Kyiv: The capital has moved into a "total grid failure" phase. Emergency outages (1051Z) combined with residents draining heating systems (1031Z) indicates that the city's utility infrastructure is being decommissioned by the population to prevent permanent frost-damage.
• Sumy: Potential for a new axis of friction. The report of engagement near Krasnopillia (1057Z) requires immediate verification; if true, it represents a broadening of the front to fix UAF reserves away from the southern breakthrough.

Eastern Sector (Donbas/Konstantinovka)

• Konstantinovka/Chasiv Yar: RU forces are intensifying ground assaults. The objective is likely to exploit the current focus on the southern breakthrough to achieve a pincer movement around Chasiv Yar (1043Z).
• Strike Activity: UAF 422nd Unmanned Systems Battalion ("Luftwaffe") continues effective interdiction, documenting the destruction of RU shelters and personnel via drone strikes (1038Z).

Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson)

• Zaporizhzhia: RU aviation is shifting focus west of the recent breakthrough at Zelene. Heavy FAB usage in Zaliznychne (1033Z) suggests RU intends to sever the GLOCs (Ground Lines of Communication) connecting Huliaipole to the rear.
• Kherson: RU loitering munitions (Lancet) are actively hunting UAF assets on the right bank (1049Z), indicating high-density ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) over the riverine corridor.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

• Aviation Adaptation: RU "Vostok" Group is successfully integrating heavy aviation (FABs) with their ground breakthrough in Zaporizhzhia. This synergy is significantly higher than in previous months.
• Information Operations: RU state media (TASS, 1030Z) is circulating a narrative from ex-SBU defector Prozorov that current SBU head Malyuk may lead a "terrorist PMC." This is assessed as a DISINFORMATION campaign intended to delegitimize the UAF/SBU leadership ahead of potential deep-strike escalations.
• Psychological Warfare: Continued focus on the "Oreshnik" missile's speed (1037Z) targets European (specifically Baltic) audiences to induce paralysis through fear.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Defensive UAV Operations: The 422nd Unmanned Systems Battalion remains a critical force multiplier in the East, maintaining high-tempo attritional strikes against RU infantry (1038Z).
• Civil Recovery: In areas hit by recent strikes (likely Kryvyi Rih/Dnipro), local authorities are actively managing debris removal and humanitarian aid (1046Z, Vilkul).

Information environment / disinformation

• "Oreshnik" De-escalation: Ukrainian official statements (1042Z) are actively downplaying the effectiveness of the "Oreshnik" strikes against Lviv's gas sector to maintain public morale and counter RU "superweapon" narratives.
• Global Distractions: RU-aligned channels are amplifying civil unrest in the US (Portland, 1055Z) and Iran (1047Z) to frame the current conflict as part of a "global collapse" of Western-aligned order.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

• MLCOA: RU forces will intensify FAB strikes on the Huliaipole-Zaliznychne axis to capitalize on the Zelene breakthrough. In Kyiv, the total lack of power will likely lead to the first significant wave of the "Mayor's evacuation," potentially clogging M-06 and M-05 highways.
• MDCOA: A RU "spoiling attack" in the Sumy region (Krasnopillia) succeeds in drawing UAF tactical reserves away from the Zaporizhzhia sector, allowing RU to reach the H-15 highway prematurely.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

1. Sumy Border Truth: Urgent need for SIGINT/IMINT confirmation of RU troop concentrations near Krasnopillia-Hrabovske.
2. Kyiv Critical Vulnerabilities: Identify if "Red Line" medical and military command centers in Kyiv have sufficient fuel reserves for 48h+ of continuous generator operation under total grid failure.
3. Zaliznychne Damage Assessment: Determine the status of the rail/road junction in Zaliznychne following the reported FAB strikes.

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IPB ANALYSIS (SITUATION REPORT SUPPLEMENT)

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW The theater is bifurcating into a Humanitarian Catastrophe (North) and a Maneuver Crisis (South). The transition of Kyiv to 100% emergency outages is a terminal indicator for urban sustainability in winter. This creates a ticking clock for Ukrainian command: stabilize the southern front before the capital's evacuation creates a logistical nightmare in the rear.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS The RU "Vostok" Group's use of 11th Army aviation indicates they are no longer just pushing infantry; they are using a combined-arms "hammer and anvil" approach. The targeting of Zaliznychne shows a sophisticated understanding of UAF logistical bottlenecks.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES UAF is relying heavily on autonomous drone battalions (e.g., 422nd) to hold the line where mechanized assets are restricted by weather or lack of air cover. The resilience of the gas infrastructure in Lviv is a positive outlier but does not offset the grid collapse in the Dnipro-Kyiv corridor.

4. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS Within 12 hours, the primary challenge will not be the Russian army, but the internal displacement of civilians from Kyiv. If this is not managed, military logistics to the Donbas and Zaporizhzhia will be paralyzed by civilian traffic.

//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//

1. RESERVE PRIORITIZATION: Do not commit central reserves to the Sumy border until the Krasnopillia report is corroborated by at least two independent UAF ground units. It is likely a RU feint.
2. ANTI-DRONE SHIELDING: Move additional mobile SHORAD (Short Range Air Defense) to the Zaliznychne sector to intercept the RU "Zala" drones that are currently spotting for the FAB-equipped aircraft.
3. IO COUNTER-STRIKE: Immediately release footage of the 422nd Battalion's successes to counter the RU "Oreshnik" and "Malyuk PMC" narratives, focusing on RU tactical failures to maintain domestic morale.

//END OF REPORT//