Situation Report

Situation Update (2026-01-09T10:28Z)

Key updates since last sitrep

• URGENT EVACUATION ADVISORY FOR KYIV (1000Z, Tsaplienko/Klitschko, HIGH): Kyiv Mayor Klitschko has officially urged residents to "temporarily leave the city" for suburban areas due to the collapse of life-support systems.
• CONFIRMED LOSS OF ZELENE (1004Z-1025Z, RU MoD/Colonelcassad, HIGH): Russian "Vostok" Group of Forces has confirmed the capture of Zelene (Zaporizhzhia Oblast). Combat footage corroborates the withdrawal of UAF elements from the settlement.
• CLAIMED CAPTURE OF BRATSKOYE (0959Z, RU MoD, MEDIUM): RU MoD reports the "liberation" of Bratskoye by Vostok Group forces. This remains UNCONFIRMED by UAF sources.
• CRITICAL HEATING FAILURE IN KYIV (1025Z, ASTRA/DTEK, HIGH): 50% of high-rise buildings in the capital are now without heating; 400,000+ families remain without power following the overnight strikes.
• RIVNE TCC CORRUPTION ARREST (1000Z, Gen. Prosecutor/Operativnyi ZSU, HIGH): A senior official in the Rivne Oblast Territorial Recruitment Center was detained for accepting bribes, including a Toyota Highlander, to remove individuals from the wanted list.
• TU-142MK STRATEGIC MILESTONE (1011Z, TASS, MEDIUM): Northern Fleet aircraft achieved the first-ever mid-air refueling near the North Pole, indicating an expansion of Russian long-range maritime patrol capabilities.

Operational picture (by sector)

Northern Sector (Kyiv/Sumy/Kharkiv)

• Kyiv: Transitioning from a technical emergency to a large-scale humanitarian crisis. The Mayor’s evacuation call (1000Z) suggests that grid repairs cannot keep pace with the current rate of degradation and freezing temperatures.
• Sumy: New UAV threat detected (1019Z) with drones ingressing from the north, likely targeting local energy substations or monitoring UAF movements toward the border.
• Kharkiv: Strike UAV activity continues around Lozova (1026Z), focusing on this critical rail and logistics junction connecting Kharkiv to the Donbas.

Eastern Sector (Donbas/Lyman)

• Myrnohrad: Tactical engagement reported. UAF 7th Air Assault Corps units successfully targeted RU infantry attempting to use a local farm and fecal pits for concealment (1027Z). This indicates RU forces are attempting high-risk infiltration tactics in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad approach.
• Donbas (General): Heavy fighting continues (05-08 Jan summary) with high usage of FPV drones by RU "Sparta" units targeting Ukrainian M113s and logistical vehicles (1002Z).

Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson)

• Zaporizhzhia (Breakthrough): The loss of Zelene (1004Z) and the reported push into Bratskoye (0959Z) indicate an operational-level effort by the RU "Vostok" Group to collapse the UAF's southern flank.
• Gaychur River: RU drone operators from the 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade engaged UAF infantry on the western bank (1000Z), confirming RU fire control is extending across this natural obstacle.
• Logistics: Ukraine's MoD expanded the "Reserve+" notification system (1005Z) to streamline mobilization, likely in response to personnel requirements on the thinning Zaporizhzhia line.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

• Multi-Day Strike Summary: RU MoD (1004Z) reports a massive strike campaign (Jan 3-9) targeting UAV production, ammunition depots, and energy infrastructure. This aligns with the observed systemic degradation of the Kyiv grid.
• Tactical Adaptation: RU forces in Myrnohrad are utilizing unconventional concealment (agricultural pits), suggesting a high level of desperation or a shift toward small-unit infiltration to bypass UAF ISR.
• Maritime/Strategic: The Tu-142MK refueling achievement (1011Z) signals that Russia is maintaining strategic readiness in the Arctic/North Atlantic despite the heavy resource drain of the Ukrainian theater.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Anti-Corruption Operations: The State Bureau of Investigation (DBR) continues to purge the TCC (recruitment) system (1011Z), which is critical for maintaining public trust during the current mobilization drive.
• Defensive Delaying Actions: 3rd Army Corps (Paskuda/Silver/Kraken units) remains active in high-intensity sectors, though specific geographic progress is currently obscured by OPSEC (0959Z).

Information environment / disinformation

• "Marinera" Diplomacy: RU state media is heavily framing the release of the two crew members by the Trump administration as a victory for "direct Russian-US dialogue," bypassing the current Ukrainian administration (0959Z, 1008Z).
• Mexico Narrative (DISINFORMATION): WarGonzo and Hayabusa (1003Z, 1018Z) are circulating claims of potential US strikes on Mexico. This is assessed as a LOW CONFIDENCE distraction narrative intended to flood the info space with "global chaos" themes.
• Internal Russian Friction: "Dva Mayora" (1017Z) is criticizing a "hate factory" network within the Russian Telegram segment that is allegedly attacking the MoD and promoting "humiliating peace" narratives, indicating continued instability in the RU information-command structure.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

• MLCOA: RU forces will consolidate Zelene and push toward the H-15 highway to interdict UAF logistics. UAV strikes on Sumy and Lozova will intensify overnight.
• MDCOA: A total failure of the Kyiv water/heating system leading to mass uncoordinated civilian flight, which could obstruct military transit routes (GLOCs) needed to reinforce the Zaporizhzhia sector.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

1. Bratskoye Status: Confirm the level of RU control in Bratskoye; determine if UAF has established a new defensive line west of the Gaychur River.
2. Kyiv Power Grid: Obtain DTEK technical assessment on the estimated time to restore "Red Line" critical heating services before the overnight temperature drop.
3. Zaporizhzhia Reserves: Identify the location and readiness of UAF 7th AC or other reserves to plug the Zelene-Bratskoye gap.

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IPB ANALYSIS (SITUATION REPORT SUPPLEMENT)

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW The conflict has entered a Strategic Convergence Point. The humanitarian collapse in Kyiv is now coinciding with a major tactical breakthrough in Zaporizhzhia. Russia is successfully using the "infrastructure-kill" in the rear to fix Ukrainian political attention while their "Vostok" group executes a maneuver in the south.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS The Vostok Group (Group of Forces East) is displaying high operational tempo. The capture of Zelene suggests they have identified a weakness in the UAF southern defensive belt. The use of the "Oreshnik" narrative (from previous sitrep) coupled with the Marinera diplomatic win suggests Moscow believes it holds the escalation dominance.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES UAF is facing a dual crisis: internal (TCC corruption) and external (frontline breaches). The expansion of "Reserve+" indicates a desperate need for manpower, but the Rivne TCC scandal risks undermining the legitimacy of the call-up.

4. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS The capture of Zelene is the most significant territorial change in the last 48 hours. If Bratskoye is also lost, the H-15 highway—a primary artery for the Southern front—comes under direct RU tube artillery range. Expect a 12-hour window where RU forces try to expand this salient before UAF reserves can be re-tasked from the Donbas.

//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//

1. TRAFFIC PRIORITY: Establish "Military Only" corridors on roads leading out of Kyiv to ensure the civilian evacuation does not stall movement of AD units or reserves.
2. SOUTHERN REINFORCEMENT: Immediately re-task tactical UAV units to the Gaychur River sector to provide 24/7 surveillance of the Russian bridgehead at Zelene.
3. PSYOP/IO: Publicize the Rivne TCC arrest aggressively to demonstrate "internal cleaning," countering the RU narrative of a "corrupt and failing" Ukrainian state.

//END OF REPORT//