Situation Report

Situation Update (2026-01-09T09:28Z)

Key updates since last sitrep

• SETTLEMENT PLAN NEGOTIATIONS REPORTED (0913Z, TASS/Axios, MEDIUM): Reports indicate the US administration and Kyiv have coordinated a potential settlement plan for the conflict; the White House is reportedly awaiting a formal Russian response.
• MASSIVE ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE DEGRADATION (0917Z, Operativnyi ZSU/Ukrenergo, HIGH): Overnight strikes have caused a total blackout in Slavutych and severe outages in the Donetsk region. Over 500,000 consumers in Kyiv and 370,000 households in Kyiv Oblast remain without power (0913Z, Dva Mayora; 0927Z, ASTRA).
• STRATEGIC INFRASTRUCTURE TARGETING (0911Z, Archangel Spetsnaz, MEDIUM): Coordinated strikes targeted energy infrastructure in/around Kyiv, specifically preceded by an attack on a major gas storage facility.
• UKRAINIAN DEEP STRIKE ON ORYOL TPP (0901Z, Operativnyi ZSU, HIGH): Visual evidence confirms a "rocket-drone" strike on the Oryol Thermal Power Plant (TPP) in Russia yesterday evening; RU MoD claims only one UAV was intercepted in the sector (0926Z, Voenkor Kotenok).
• MAJOR DEFENSE PROCUREMENT FRAUD EXPOSED (0923Z, Tsaplienko, HIGH): The Ukrainian Prosecutor General's office uncovered a 3 billion UAH scheme involving the supply of unusable mines and the misappropriation of advance payments.
• TACTICAL SUCCESS NEAR MYRNOHRAD (0911Z, RBK-UA, MEDIUM): UAF stormtroopers located and neutralized a Russian squad occupying a farm building near Myrnohrad (Donetsk).
• BELGOROD INFRASTRUCTURE EMERGENCY (0924Z, Spetsnaz Akhmat/Gladkov, MEDIUM): Governor Gladkov confirmed emergency services are working to restore power via "reserve capacities" following what he termed a "terrorist strike" overnight.

Operational picture (by sector)

Northern Sector (Kursk/Sumy/Kharkiv)

• Sumy/Kursk: UAF forces successfully repelled three Russian army assaults in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky directions (0902Z, GSZSU).
• Kharkiv: Active clashes reported near Burhuvatka, Vilcha, and Fyholivka. RU UAV activity is currently trending toward Krasnopavlivka (0925Z, Air Force).

Eastern Sector (Donbas/Lyman)

• Kupyansk/Lyman: Heavy fighting continues near Petropavlivka and Nova Kruhlyakivka. In the Lyman direction, clashes are focused on Drobysheve and Stavky (0901Z, GSZSU).
• Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad: This remains the most active kinetic zone. Clashes reported across ten settlements including Rodynske and Udachne. A Russian drone control point in Krasnoyarskoye was reportedly targeted by RU aviation using FAB-500s (0923Z, Colonelcassad - UNCONFIRMED).
• Kostiantynivka/Sloviansk: Engagements reported near Ivanopillya and Siversk (0901Z, GSZSU).

Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson)

• Zaporizhzhia: Russian aviation conducted multiple strikes on Yulyivka, Rizdvyanka, and Zaliznychne. UAF Air Force reports UAVs moving toward Komyshuvakha (0916Z).
• Kherson: Combat activity persists near the Antonivskyi Bridge (0902Z, GSZSU).
• Odesa: RU airstrikes targeted Zatoka (0901Z, Liveuamap/GSZSU).

Enemy activity / threat assessment

• Infrastructure Attrition: The shift to targeting gas storage facilities alongside electrical grids indicates a "total energy" denial strategy, likely intended to break the heating cycle in Kyiv during sub-zero temperatures.
• Tactical Aviation: Russian forces are heavily utilizing FAB-500 with UMPK kits to target UAF command and control points (e.g., the 14th National Guard Brigade's UAV point) to degrade Ukrainian reconnaissance-strike loops (0923Z, Colonelcassad).
• Retaliatory Signaling: Medvedev’s rhetoric linking the "Oreshnik" IRBM strike to a demand for US recognition of Russian legitimacy suggests the Kremlin is using kinetic escalation to force a specific diplomatic outcome (0858Z, TASS).

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Defensive Resilience: Ground forces continue to hold the line in the Northeast, repelling 100% of reported assaults in the Kursk/Sumy sector over the last reporting period.
• Asymmetric Response: The "rocket-drone" strike on Oryol TPP demonstrates Ukraine's ability to maintain "reciprocal pressure" on Russian energy production despite the IRBM threat.
• Internal Stabilization: The crackdown on defense procurement fraud (3 billion UAH) is a critical move to preserve donor trust and operational readiness (0923Z, Tsaplienko).

Information environment / disinformation

• Settlement Rumors: The Axios report regarding a US-Kyiv settlement plan (0913Z) is being heavily amplified by Russian state media to project an image of "Western fatigue" or an impending Ukrainian concession.
• Distraction Narratives: Pro-Russian channels continue to focus on Iranian protests and US domestic political rumors (e.g., Greenland/Denmark) to dilute the international focus on the "Oreshnik" escalation (0900Z, Voenkor Kotenok; 0926Z, Tsaplienko).

Outlook (next 6-12h)

• MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued UAV/Missile pressure on the Kyiv electrical nodes. UAF will likely attempt further drone strikes on Russian border oblast energy assets (Belgorod/Oryol) to alleviate pressure on the domestic grid.
• MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A sustained ballistic strike targeting the "reserve capacities" mentioned by Governor Gladkov, intended to collapse the Belgorod regional logistics hub, or a follow-on IRBM strike on Western Ukrainian logistics.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

1. Settlement Plan Specifics: Urgent requirement for SIGINT/HUMINT to verify the terms of the reported Axios settlement plan.
2. Oryol BDA: Precise damage assessment of the Oryol TPP to determine if power generation is permanently or temporarily offline.
3. Slavutych Status: Assessment of the blackout in Slavutych, particularly regarding the safety and security of personnel associated with the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone.

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IPB ANALYSIS (SITUATION REPORT SUPPLEMENT)

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW The conflict is entering a Diplomatic-Kinetic Convergence. Russia is escalating the severity of infrastructure strikes (gas + electricity) to create maximum leverage for the "settlement plan" negotiations reported via Axios. The operational geometry is static but highly lethal, with both sides focusing on rear-area energy attrition.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS Russian forces are demonstrating improved synchronization in their strike packages. The targeting of gas storage (Kyiv) and TPPs (Oryol retaliation) shows a high-level focus on strategic vulnerabilities. Medvedev’s statements confirm that these strikes are directly tied to the Kremlin’s broader diplomatic demands for "rightful" territorial control.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES UAF continues to show high tactical proficiency in Myrnohrad and the Northeast. However, the discovery of 3 billion UAH in procurement fraud suggests significant internal logistical risks that may impact the supply of critical munitions (mines) if not corrected immediately.

4. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS Expect a significant Russian push in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad sector within 24 hours to capitalize on the FAB-500 strikes against Ukrainian UAV control centers. If the power in Kyiv is not restored within 12 hours, expect a surge in civilian-led pressure on the government to accept "settlement" terms.

//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//

1. STRATEGIC COMMUNICATION: Rapidly clarify the "Axios" report to prevent Russian info-ops from demoralizing the civilian population.
2. RESERVE POWER: Prioritize the movement of industrial-grade generators to Slavutych to prevent a total loss of C2 in the northern border sector.
3. PROCUREMENT AUDIT: Immediately expand the audit of defense contracts to other ammunition types (artillery/UAVs) to ensure operational stockpiles are functional.

//END OF REPORT//