Situation Report

Situation Update (2026-01-09T09:00Z)

Key updates since last sitrep

• OFFICIAL CONFIRMATION OF "ORESHNIK" STRIKE (0830Z, RBC-UA/Zelensky, HIGH): President Zelensky confirmed the overnight use of the "Oreshnik" Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missile (IRBM) against targets in Western Ukraine (Lviv Oblast), timed to coincide with severe winter temperatures.
• DIPLOMATIC FACILITY DAMAGED (0831Z, Operativnyi ZSU/Zelensky, HIGH): A Russian drone strike damaged the Embassy of the State of Qatar in Kyiv during the overnight mass attack.
• ESCALATION OF KYIV UTILITY COLLAPSE (0848Z, Operativnyi ZSU/Svyrydenko, HIGH): Power outages now affect over 500,000 consumers in Kyiv and the surrounding region. The Verkhovna Rada (Parliament) is currently without water and heating (0835Z, Tsaplienko, HIGH).
• DOUBLE-TAP CASUALTY IDENTIFIED (0836Z, Tsaplienko/Sternenko, HIGH): 56-year-old paramedic Serhiy Smolyak was confirmed killed during a secondary Russian strike while treating victims of the initial attack in Kyiv.
• CLAIMED CAPTURE OF ZELENE (0830Z, Voin DV/Colonelcassad, LOW): Russian "Vostok" Group sources claim to have seized the settlement of Zelene in the Zaporizhzhia region. UNCONFIRMED by UAF sources.
• URGENT DIPLOMATIC MOBILIZATION (0831Z, Alex Parker/Sibiga, MEDIUM): Ukraine has requested emergency sessions of the UN Security Council and the Ukraine-NATO Council following the "Oreshnik" deployment.

Operational picture (by sector)

Northern Sector (Kyiv/Sumy)

The humanitarian situation in Kyiv has deteriorated. Kyivvodokanal confirms the total loss of water supply in the Pechersk and Left Bank districts due to power station failures (0832Z). 40 objects are damaged in the capital, including 20 residential buildings (0834Z). Russian drone activity continues to probe the region, with the Qatari Embassy strike indicating indiscriminate or poor-precision targeting in the diplomatic quarter.

Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Dnipropetrovsk)

Russian artillery (Msta-S) remains active against rear-area logistics. The Ru MoD claims a strike on a UAF deployment point in Velikomikhaylovka (0832Z). UAVs were detected over eastern Dnipropetrovsk at 0842Z, moving west toward Pokrovske (0850Z), suggesting ongoing reconnaissance-strike loops against the H-15/M-30 logistical corridors.

Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia)

The sector is under renewed aerial pressure. New KAB (Guided Aerial Bomb) launches were reported at 0845Z (UAF Air Force). The claimed capture of Zelene (0830Z) suggests a Russian attempt to broaden the offensive front in Zaporizhzhia, potentially exploiting the weather-induced mobility constraints mentioned in previous reports.

Western Sector (Lviv/Border)

The "Oreshnik" strike targeting Lviv Oblast represents a significant escalation in strategic signaling. While BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) remains limited, the strike's proximity to NATO borders and the use of an IRBM-class asset are clearly intended to deter Western logistical support.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

• Strategic Weaponry: The deployment of the "Oreshnik" IRBM confirms Russia’s intent to use high-velocity, hard-to-intercept assets to bypass Western-supplied air defense in the rear.
• Targeting Trends: Systematic targeting of the Verkhovna Rada and the diplomatic quarter in Kyiv suggests a shift toward "Command and Control" and "Political Center of Gravity" targets, moving beyond just energy infrastructure.
• Rhetorical Escalation: Dmitry Medvedev’s framing of the IRBM strike as a "warning" (0847Z) indicates the Kremlin is using these strikes as psychological leverage against Western decision-makers.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Emergency Restoration: Repair crews are attempting to stabilize power for 500,000 consumers, though the lack of heating in government buildings indicates the severity of the generation/distribution gap.
• Diplomatic Offensive: Foreign Minister Sibiga is leveraging the "Oreshnik" strike to secure immediate NATO/UN intervention and likely requesting advanced ABM (Anti-Ballistic Missile) capabilities (e.g., THAAD or specialized Patriot variants).

Information environment / disinformation

• "Iran Protests" Diversion: Pro-Russian channels (Alex Parker, 0844Z) are beginning to amplify reports of domestic unrest in Iran. This may be an attempt to distract Western intelligence and media from the "Oreshnik" escalation.
• Sanctions Defiance: State media (TASS/Medvedev, 0841Z) is aggressively messaging that new US sanctions are ineffective, attempting to maintain domestic stability amidst the escalating conflict.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

• MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued UAV and KAB pressure in the Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia sectors. Kyiv will likely remain without water in the Pechersk/Left Bank districts as temperatures remain sub-zero, increasing the risk of burst pipes.
• MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A follow-up ballistic strike on the remaining functional substations feeding the Kyiv government quarter, potentially timed with the UN/NATO emergency meetings to project "escalation dominance."

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

1. Zelene Status: Immediate GEOINT/Drone reconnaissance required to confirm if UAF units have withdrawn from Zelene (Zaporizhzhia).
2. "Oreshnik" BDA: Technical assessment of the impact site in Lviv Oblast to determine the missile's payload and precision.
3. Kyiv Critical Failure: Determine the specific damage to the "Kyivvodokanal" electrical feeders to estimate the timeline for water restoration.

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IPB ANALYSIS (SITUATION REPORT SUPPLEMENT)

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW The conflict has transitioned into a Strategic Signaling Phase. Russia is no longer merely targeting "energy"; it is targeting "governance" and "diplomatic status" (evidenced by the Rada and Qatari Embassy hits).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS Russian forces are demonstrating a high degree of coordination between strategic missile forces and tactical aviation (KABs). The use of the IRBM is a clear attempt to establish a "new normal" where Western Ukraine is no longer a safe haven for logistics or diplomacy.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES Ukrainian Air Defense is facing a multi-layered challenge: low-cost Shahed drones (Kyiv), tactical KABs (South), and IRBMs (West). The depletion of interceptors for conventional threats remains a critical concern if ballistic threats continue to surge.

4. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS If Zelene is confirmed lost, it indicates a Russian push to bypass the main defensive belts in Zaporizhzhia. This would likely be followed by increased pressure on the H-08 highway.

//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//

1. DIPLOMATIC SECURITY: Relocate non-essential diplomatic staff from Kyiv to hardened facilities; provide UAF-integrated SHORAD for the diplomatic quarter.
2. ABM DEPLOYMENT: Prioritize the positioning of PAC-3 or SAMP/T batteries to cover the Western logistical hubs specifically against IRBM-class threats.
3. UTILITY HARDENING: Deploy mobile boiler units to the Verkhovna Rada and other key governance centers to prevent structural damage from freezing pipes.

//END OF REPORT//