KYIV CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE COLLAPSE (0759Z-0801Z, RBC-UA/Operativnyi ZSU, HIGH): Massive Russian strikes have severed water supply to the Pechersk district and the entire Left Bank of Kyiv. Emergency power outages are spreading across Kyiv Oblast.
DOUBLE-TAP STRIKES ON FIRST RESPONDERS (0823Z-0825Z, Zelensky/KMVA, HIGH): Confirmed Russian "double-tap" strike on a residential building in Kyiv while emergency services were extracting victims. At least four dead, including a paramedic.
MASSIVE DEFENSE PROCUREMENT SCANDAL (0818Z-0823Z, OGP/DBR, HIGH): Ukraine’s Prosecutor General and State Bureau of Investigation (DBR) uncovered a 3 billion UAH corruption scheme involving the supply of non-functional mortar mines to the UAF.
WINTER MOBILITY CRISIS (0803Z, Biloshitsky, HIGH): Severe snowdrifts in Western Ukraine (Rohatyn Raion) are beginning to block major transit routes, threatening logistics into the Western Sector.
DONETSK AERIAL BOMBARDMENT (0810Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): New waves of Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) launched against Donetsk regional targets.
MEXICO DISINFORMATION PERSISTS (0800Z-0805Z, Tsyaplienko/Alex Parker, HIGH): Pro-Russian and fringe channels continue to amplify deepfake/misleading clips of US political figures to claim an imminent US invasion of Mexico.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Kyiv): Systemic targeting of civilian "survival" infrastructure (water/heat) in sub-zero temperatures. 20 residential buildings damaged. The Pechersk/Left Bank water outage represents a major humanitarian escalation.
Eastern Sector (Donetsk): High tempo of KAB strikes. Russian-aligned forces (242nd MSP/68th ORB) claim localized successes against UAF signal/antenna infrastructure in Novopavlivka and Raiske (0759Z, DNR, MEDIUM).
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia): Continued UAV probes (0812Z) and missile strikes on civilian housing in the Zaporizhzhia district (0808Z).
Western Sector: Operations increasingly dictated by weather. Heavy snow in Ivano-Frankivsk/Lviv regions is slowing the movement of military convoys and international aid.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Adaptation: The use of "double-tap" strikes on Kyiv residential areas indicates a shift from infrastructure degradation to active personnel attrition of first responders and psychological terror.
Strategic Messaging: RF channels (Archangel Spetsnaz) are explicitly framing the "Oreshnik" IRBM as a "demonstration" for European audiences to deter Western troop deployments (0810Z).
Rear Area Stress: Reports from Belgorod (Gladkov, 0759Z) and Bryansk (Bogomaz, 0810Z) suggest overnight UAF drone/artillery activity has successfully triggered emergency alerts in Russian border regions.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Counter-Corruption: The 3B UAH mine procurement bust is a significant internal security victory but highlights a critical vulnerability in the supply of "Class V" (ammunition) supplies to the front.
Damage Control: KMVA and DSNS are fully mobilized in Kyiv to restore water/power, though "double-tap" threats are complicating recovery timelines.
Logistical Maintenance: National Police and road crews are attempting to keep H-09 and other Western GLOCs open despite heavy snow.
Information environment / disinformation
"Mexico Diversion": This narrative has shifted from fringe speculation to a coordinated effort to flood the news cycle (0800Z), likely timed to drown out international condemnation of the Kyiv civilian casualties.
Russian Naval Disillusionment: Notable dissent on the "13 TACTICAL" channel (Dmitry Uskov) regarding the "humiliation" of a Russian tanker by US forces (0826Z, Butusov, MEDIUM). This indicates potential morale fractures in RF naval/logistical units.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely (MLCOA): Continued KAB/UAV pressure in the East and South. Kyiv will face a critical 12-hour window to restore water before pipes begin to freeze and burst in the Pechersk/Left Bank districts.
Most Dangerous (MDCOA): A follow-up ballistic strike on Kyiv’s primary water pumping stations or heating plants while repair crews are exposed, capitalizing on the current "double-tap" doctrine.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Mine Scandal Impact: Urgent requirement to identify which frontline units received the "unfit" mines to assess immediate gaps in indirect fire capabilities.
Kyiv Water System: Technical BDA of the "Kyivvodokanal" infrastructure—is the outage due to power failure (recoverable) or direct kinetic damage to pumps (long-term)?
Naval Confrontation: Satellite/SIGINT confirmation of the "13 TACTICAL" claim regarding the US naval interaction with the Russian tanker.
IPB ANALYSIS (SITUATION REPORT SUPPLEMENT)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The conflict has entered a Combined Environmental-Kinetic Crisis. Russia is synchronizing massive strikes on Kyiv's life-support systems with a severe winter storm in the West to maximize civilian suffering and logistical paralysis.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Intentions: Forced depopulation of Kyiv's urban centers through the denial of water and heat during a freeze.
Psychological Ops: Using the "Oreshnik" IRBM as a strategic "shadow" to prevent Western intervention while conducting high-casualty conventional strikes.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Internal Security: The DBR/OGP action shows high "Red-on-Blue" (corruption) awareness, but the scale (3bn UAH) suggests deep-rooted issues in the Ministry of Defense's procurement cycle that may have already affected winter combat readiness.
4. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Logistics: If the Western snowstorm continues, the "Poland-to-Front" supply chain will see 24-48 hour delays, creating a window of vulnerability for UAF units in the Pokrovsk and Kupyansk sectors.
Information: Expect Russia to amplify the "unfit mines" scandal to demoralize UAF frontline troops and undermine Western donor confidence.
//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//
ANTI-DOUBLE-TAP PROTOCOLS: Mandate that DSNS and medical responders in Kyiv utilize mobile EW jamming and dedicated SHORAD cover during recovery operations in strike zones.
MUNITIONS AUDIT: General Staff must conduct an immediate 100% inspection of all 82mm and 120mm mortar stocks at the brigade level to identify and quarantine the faulty 3B UAH-contract mines.
STRATEGIC CLARIFICATION: Issue a formal statement via the Center for Countering Disinformation (CPD) regarding the US/Mexico narrative to insulate the domestic audience from distraction while Kyiv is under fire.
