CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE: Heating/Water Failure in Kyiv (03:17Z, RBK-UA, HIGH): Confirmed widespread disruptions to heating and hot water in multiple Kyiv districts following targeted strikes. This accelerates the "city-kill" effects during sub-zero temperatures.
TACTICAL ENGAGEMENT: Equipment Losses in Kupyansk (03:11Z, TASS, MEDIUM): RF sources claim the destruction of three UAF equipment units on the western outskirts of Kupyansk. This indicates active interdiction of UAF movements on the west bank of the Oskil River.
AIR DEFENSE: Zaporizhzhia All Clear (03:23Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH): The air raid alert for the Zaporizhzhia region has been lifted following the earlier KAB (Guided Aerial Bomb) threat.
INFO OPS: Narrative Amplification (03:01Z–03:09Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): RF channels are actively disseminating OSINT strike maps and amplifying strategic narratives regarding US political shifts (Trump) to demoralize UAF and civilian populations.
MORALE: RU Domestic Messaging (03:20Z, Colonelcassad, LOW): Coordinated release of "Our Guys" propaganda content aimed at boosting Russian domestic support and presenting a high-morale front for RF forces.
Operational picture (by sector)
Kyiv Metropolitan Area: The situation has transitioned from a kinetic air defense event to a Humanitarian/Logistical Emergency. With confirmed heating and water outages (03:17Z), the city's ability to sustain its civilian and military support population is severely stressed. The "all clear" at 02:36Z has not mitigated the systemic utility failures.
Kupyansk Sector:CRITICAL AREA. Following the reported capture of Podoly (Daily Report 0959Z), RF forces are now targeting UAF assets on the western outskirts (03:11Z). This suggests RF is utilizing drones or long-range artillery to interdict UAF's secondary defensive lines or withdrawal routes toward the west bank of the Oskil.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia): The termination of the air alarm (03:23Z) provides a window for BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) following the 02:50Z KAB strikes. UAF forces must now brace for potential ground probes near the Gaychur River.
National Level: RF is using OSINT strike visualizations (03:01Z) to demonstrate the "omnipresence" of their strike capability, attempting to frame the overnight campaign as a comprehensive success.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action (COA): RF is successfully executing a Multi-Domain Attrition strategy. Kinetically, they are interdicting tactical assets in Kupyansk; systemically, they are degrading Kyiv’s infrastructure; and cognitively, they are leveraging US political discourse (03:09Z) to foster a sense of inevitability.
Tactical Shift: The focus on the western outskirts of Kupyansk (03:11Z) is a significant development, suggesting RF aims to create a "fire sack" around the Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi logistical hub by preventing reinforcements from arriving via the west.
Capabilities: RF maintains the ability to cycle between high-end ballistic pulses and high-volume tactical aviation (KABs) while maintaining a continuous information operation.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Logistics/Recovery: UAF and municipal engineering units are now engaged in emergency repairs in Kyiv (03:17Z). The priority is preventing the total freezing of the pipe network.
Defense Posture: UAF forces in the Kupyansk sector are likely adjusting dispositions to counter the reported destruction of equipment on the western outskirts, indicating a need for improved SHORAD (Short-Range Air Defense) or camouflage in the rear tactical zone.
Information environment / disinformation
Strategic Framing: RF sources (Colonelcassad 03:09Z) are focusing on "fresh Trump" quotes/developments, likely linked to the "rare earth metals" narrative identified in the previous sitrep. This aims to portray the Ukrainian government as trading national wealth for survival.
OSINT Weaponization: The dissemination of strike maps (03:01Z) serves a dual purpose: providing domestic Russian audiences with "proof of progress" and inducing panic in Ukrainian civilian centers by visualizing the extent of the bombardment.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Likely (MLCOA): RF will maintain pressure on the Kupyansk western flank to disrupt the consolidation of new UAF defensive lines. In Kyiv, the lack of heat will likely trigger the opening of "Invincibility Points," which may become secondary targets for UAV harassment.
Most Dangerous (MDCOA): RF capitalizes on the Kupyansk western-edge interdiction with a surprise mechanized crossing attempt of the Oskil River, aiming to collapse the Kupyansk pocket before UAF reserves can be re-routed through the power-degraded rail network.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Kupyansk Ground Truth: Urgent requirement for SIGINT/ELINT to determine the specific units targeted on the western outskirts of Kupyansk. Are these M777 batteries, armored reserves, or supply convoys?
Kyiv Utility Status: Clarify the specific districts in Kyiv without heat; assess if military HQ facilities are operating on redundant/independent heating systems.
Zaporizhzhia BDA: Evaluate the impact of the 02:50Z KAB strikes on UAF defensive positions north of the Gaychur River.
IPB ANALYSIS (SITUATION REPORT SUPPLEMENT)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The battlefield geometry is expanding from the front lines to the deep rear. The RF "Infrastructure Offensive" has achieved a tactical victory in Kyiv by triggering heating failures during a cold snap. In the East, the Kupyansk sector is the current tactical center of gravity.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Logistics: RF continues to utilize the 260th GRAU stocks for sustained pressure.
Morale: High focus on "Our Guys" (03:20Z) indicates a need to sustain domestic support as the winter campaign intensifies.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Vulnerability: UAF tactical equipment in the Kupyansk rear (western outskirts) is increasingly vulnerable to RF drone/artillery interdiction.
4. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Tactical Forecast: Expect an intensification of RF drone (FPV/Lancet) activity in the Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi area within the next 12 hours to capitalize on the equipment losses reported at 03:11Z.
//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//
KYIV RECOVERY: Prioritize the deployment of industrial-scale mobile boiler units to high-density residential districts in Kyiv to prevent civilian evacuation from clogging GLOCs.
KUPYANSK REINFORCEMENT: Increase electronic warfare (EW) coverage on the western outskirts of Kupyansk to protect arriving reserves and logistical convoys from the interdiction observed at 03:11Z.
STRATCOM: Proactively counter the RF OSINT maps by highlighting the percentage of intercepted missiles/drones, emphasizing the failure of the "total blackout" objective despite localized outages.
