ALL CLEAR: Termination of Missile Threat (02:36Z–02:40Z, KMVA/PS ZSU, HIGH): Air defense alerts have been lifted for Kyiv and most regions, marking the end of the immediate pulsed ballistic wave.
UNCONFIRMED WEAPONRY: "Oreshnik" IRBM/Hypersonic Strike (02:44Z–02:52Z, Dva Mayora, LOW): Russian sources claim a successful strike on Lviv Oblast using the "Oreshnik" missile system (claimed speed 10,000 km/h from Astrakhan). This remains unconfirmed by UAF but represents a significant escalation in narrative/threat posture.
TACTICAL AVIATION: KAB Launches (02:50Z, PS ZSU, HIGH): Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) have been launched targeting the Zaporizhzhia region, likely in support of ongoing ground operations near the Gaychur River.
INFRASTRUCTURE: Multi-Sector Failure in Kyiv (02:40Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Reports confirm that in addition to water and power, Kyiv is now experiencing significant disruptions to heating and telecommunications; railway logistics are also deteriorating.
STRATEGIC DIPLOMACY: Resource-Linked Settlement (02:56Z, TASS/RBK-UA, MEDIUM): New reports indicate Donald Trump has linked continued US involvement in the peace process to a "rare earth metals deal" with Ukraine.
BORDER ENGAGEMENT: VDV Artillery Activity (02:36Z, TASS, LOW): RF claims to have destroyed UAF infantry in Sumy Oblast via VDV artillery; no UAF corroboration.
Operational picture (by sector)
Kyiv Metropolitan Area: The city has entered a post-strike stabilization phase. While the kinetic threat has paused (02:36Z), the "city-kill" effects are accelerating. The loss of heating during sub-zero temperatures (02:40Z) alongside water and power failures creates a critical humanitarian and logistical bottleneck for the garrison.
Western Ukraine (Lviv): A potential new axis of high-value targeting. If the "Oreshnik" strike (02:44Z) is confirmed, it suggests the RF is targeting deep-rear logistics or energy transit hubs to Europe with weapons intended to bypass Western-provided AD systems.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia): The launch of KABs (02:50Z) indicates the RF is maintaining pressure on this sector. This likely aims to exploit the tactical breakthrough near the Gaychur River mentioned in previous reports by suppressing UAF tactical reserves.
Syrian Theater (Global Context): Reports of a ceasefire in Aleppo (02:33Z) between Jolani militants and Kurds suggest a stabilization of the Syrian front, potentially allowing the RF to refocus electronic or logistical resources back to the Ukrainian theater.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Course of Action (COA): The RF appears to be transitioning from "Pulsed Ballistic" strikes to "Tactical Aviation Pressure" (KABs) and "Strategic Information Terror." The claim of using "Oreshnik" is a clear attempt to demonstrate a capability to hit any point in Ukraine with zero warning time (10–15 minutes from Astrakhan to Lviv).
Logistics/Aviation: The move to KABs in Zaporizhzhia (02:50Z) suggests that while ballistic stocks are used in "pulses," RU tactical aviation remains the primary tool for frontline attrition.
Command & Control: The RF is effectively synchronizing kinetic impacts with strategic messaging regarding US political shifts to maximize psychological fatigue.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: Successfully managed the Kyiv ballistic wave, leading to the 02:36Z "All Clear." However, the potential emergence of IRBM-class threats (Oreshnik) suggests a need for re-evaluating the defense of Western Ukrainian hubs (Lviv).
Emergency Management: Facing a cascading failure of urban systems. The degradation of telecommunications (02:40Z) will complicate civil defense coordination and the distribution of emergency supplies.
Information environment / disinformation
Economic Narratives: TASS is heavily promoting the idea of Ukraine's natural resources (rare earth metals) as the "price" for US support (02:56Z). This is designed to frame the conflict as an extractive colonial venture rather than a defense of sovereignty.
Weaponry Myths: The specific claim of "10,000 km/h" for the Oreshnik (02:52Z) is likely intended for international consumption to deter Western long-range aid by demonstrating an "unstoppable" retaliatory tool.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Likely (MLCOA): Continued KAB bombardment of Zaporizhzhia to facilitate ground advances toward the H-15 highway. A second "pulse" of Shahed/UAVs is likely after dusk to harass repair crews in Kyiv.
Most Dangerous (MDCOA): Confirmed use of Oreshnik or similar IRBMs against Western Ukrainian gas storage or rail junctions to Lviv, effectively severing the "land bridge" to Poland during a period of perceived US political transition.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Lviv BDA: Urgent verification of any impacts in Lviv Oblast between 02:40Z and 02:55Z. Identify if "Oreshnik" claims are psychological operations or a verified kinetic shift.
Zaporizhzhia Ground Truth: Confirmation of RF movement north of the Gaychur River following the 02:50Z KAB strikes.
Kyiv Comms Status: Assessment of the depth of telecommunications failure. Are military encrypted channels affected, or is the disruption limited to civilian GSM/LTE?
IPB ANALYSIS (SITUATION REPORT SUPPLEMENT)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The immediate missile threat to the capital has subsided, but the operational environment has shifted to Rear-Area Strategic Interdiction. The focus has moved from Kyiv’s generation capacity to Lviv’s logistics and Zaporizhzhia’s frontline stability.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities: RF is displaying a "High-Low" mix—hypersonic/ballistic claims for strategic terror and KABs for tactical dominance.
Intent: To force a diplomatic "settlement" by demonstrating that no part of Ukraine is safe and that the cost of defense is becoming unsustainable (comms/heating/water failure).
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Constraints: The reported "Railway problems" (02:40Z) are a major concern for the movement of heavy reserves to the Zaporizhzhia or Kupyansk sectors.
4. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
MLCOA: RF will maintain the infrastructure blackout in Kyiv through minor, targeted UAV strikes to keep repair crews in shelters, while focusing the bulk of their air power on the Zaporizhzhia/Donbas frontlines.
Decision Point: If the "Oreshnik" strike is confirmed, UAF must decide whether to reposition high-tier AD (Patriot) from the capital to protect Western logistical nodes, potentially thinning the capital's shield again.
//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//
VERIFICATION: Task satellite and ELINT assets to verify launch signatures from the 4th State Central Multipurpose Range (Kapustin Yar/Astrakhan) to confirm/deny the Oreshnik launch.
LOGISTICS: Pivot military engineering assets to clear/maintain railway corridors near Kyiv to ensure GLOCs remain open despite power outages.
STRATCOM: Counter the "Rare Earth Metals" narrative by emphasizing Ukrainian control over national resources as a cornerstone of future EU integration, not a bilateral "deal" with the US.
