BALLISTIC INTERCEPTION: Third Wave (01:59Z–02:01Z, Vanek/PS ZSU, HIGH): Two ballistic missiles launched from Bryansk Oblast (RF) targeting Kyiv were successfully intercepted ("minus both") by UAF Air Defense.
INFRASTRUCTURE: Water Supply Failure (02:04Z, Klitschko, HIGH): Kyiv is now experiencing significant disruptions to water supply following earlier kinetic impacts on the energy grid (TPP-5/6).
CASUALTIES: First Responders Targeted (02:03Z, Klitschko, HIGH): A strike has resulted in the death of one medical professional and four others wounded in Kyiv, corroborating the "double-tap" or high-collateral nature of the ongoing bombardment.
KINETIC IMPACT: Boryspil (02:18Z, Colonelcassad, LOW/UNCONFIRMED): Russian sources claim impacts in the Boryspil area. This has not yet been corroborated by official UAF sources but aligns with previous UAV tracking (01:54Z).
PROPAGANDA: Strategic Narrative Shift (02:09Z–02:24Z, TASS, MEDIUM): RF state media is aggressively amplifying US political commentary (Trump) regarding potential aid reductions to demoralize the Ukrainian domestic front during the active blackout.
Operational picture (by sector)
Kyiv Metropolitan Area: The capital is in a state of cascading infrastructure failure. Following the confirmed strikes on TPP-5 and TPP-6, the loss of electrical power has triggered water pumping failures (02:04Z). The air defense umbrella remains active, successfully neutralizing the latest two-missile salvo from the north (02:01Z).
Boryspil Sector: Potential target expansion. Reports of "arrivals" (02:18Z) suggest the RF is widening its target set from energy generation to include the logistics/aviation hub of Boryspil, potentially targeting AD radar sites or fuel storage.
Donbas (Siversk): (Peripheral update) RU sources report the evacuation of civilians from the Siversk-Malyi area by the RF 7th Brigade (02:10Z), suggesting localized tactical consolidation or "cleansing" operations in that sector.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Course of Action (COA): The RF is maintaining a "Pulsed Ballistic Tempo." By launching smaller, frequent waves (e.g., the 2-missile wave at 01:59Z) from Bryansk, they are forcing UAF AD to remain in a high-alert state, depleting interceptor stocks and preventing maintenance or repositioning.
Targeting Logic: The transition from power grid targets to water supply and medical personnel indicates a shift toward Total Urban Attrition. The goal is to make Kyiv uninhabitable by morning.
Weaponry: Iskander-M (ballistic) remains the primary tool for the Kyiv strikes due to short flight times from Bryansk.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: HIGH effectiveness in the 02:00Z window with a 100% intercept rate for the detected ballistic wave. However, the saturation of the capital’s AD remains a critical vulnerability if further multi-vector (UAV + Missile) strikes occur.
Emergency Response: High-risk environment for first responders. The death of a medic (02:03Z) indicates that RU targeting or "overshoots" are impacting the very units required to stabilize the city's infrastructure.
Information environment / disinformation
Psychological Operations: RU channels (NgP Razvedka) are using the threat of "promises kept" (02:00Z) to frame the current destruction as a deliberate, controlled escalation.
Strategic Demoralization: TASS is flooding the information space with reports of US political hesitancy (02:09Z). This is a coordinated effort to link physical suffering (blackouts/water loss) with a narrative of international abandonment.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
CRITICAL. The reporting of impacts in Boryspil (02:18Z) suggests the RF may be attempting to "blind" the capital's eastern approach by hitting AD infrastructure or communications hubs. Expect a period of relative "lull" followed by a high-intensity cruise missile or ballistic surge between 04:00Z and 06:00Z to maximize psychological impact as the civilian population wakes to a city without power or water.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Boryspil BDA: Immediate Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) required for Boryspil. Determine if AD assets (Patriot/NASAMS) or logistical hubs were compromised.
Bryansk Launch Site Activity: Monitor for reload activity at known Iskander-M launch boxes in Bryansk to predict the next "pulse."
Water Grid Resilience: Determine if the water disruption is due to localized pipe damage or systemic pump failure (lack of power).
IPB ANALYSIS (SITUATION REPORT SUPPLEMENT)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operation has entered the "Infrastructure Collapse" phase. The synergy between TPP strikes and subsequent water supply failure (02:04Z) creates a humanitarian crisis that complicates military movement and defense within the capital.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities: RF demonstrates the ability to sustain a multi-hour "pulsed" offensive. The use of Bryansk launch sites (01:59Z) provides a minimal warning window (approx. 3-5 minutes), stressing AD command and control.
Adaptation: The RF is now integrating "Information Fire" (TASS political reports) with "Kinetic Fire" to achieve a combined effect on Ukrainian national will.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Readiness: Despite successful intercepts at 02:01Z, the exhaustion of AD crews and the physical loss of medical personnel (02:03Z) are degrading the capital's "Total Defense" capacity.
4. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued small-wave ballistic harassment (1-3 missiles) every 60-90 minutes to prevent the restoration of water/power, leading into a large-scale Shahed/Cruise missile combination at dawn.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A coordinated strike on the Kyiv Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP) dam or the remaining high-voltage substations connecting Kyiv to the western Ukrainian power loop to induce a permanent regional blackout.
//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//
AD PROTECTION: Implement immediate "silent hours" or emission control (EMCON) for high-value AD assets in Boryspil to prevent further targeting.
CIVILIAN DEFENSE: Authorize the use of military mobile water purification and distribution units (MWPUs) for Kyiv’s central districts to mitigate the 02:04Z water failure.
COUNTER-INFO: Strategic Communications (STRATCOM) must immediately counter the TASS/Trump narrative by highlighting the 100% intercept rate of the 02:00Z wave to reinforce the "Shield of Kyiv" narrative.
