MULTI-VECTOR ASSAULT: Simultaneous Strike on Kyiv (01:23Z, Vanek/KMVA, HIGH): For the first time in this operation, RF forces have synchronized the arrival of Shahed-type UAVs, Kalibr cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles to impact Kyiv simultaneously.
BALLISTIC ENGAGEMENT: High-Speed Targets (01:04Z–01:25Z, PS ZSU/KMVA, HIGH): Ballistic threats were detected and engaged over Kyiv. Air Defense (AD) successfully neutralized at least two ballistic targets at 01:25Z (Vanek).
CASUALTY UPDATE: Kyiv (01:22Z, KMVA, HIGH): Confirmed casualties in the capital have risen to 3 fatalities and 13 wounded following residential impacts.
KINETIC (CRUISE): Kalibr Waves 1 & 2 Neutralized (01:02Z–01:11Z, Vanek, MEDIUM): The first two waves of Kalibr cruise missiles have been intercepted or have passed through the initial engagement zones. Wave 4 is currently active, with units splitting toward Obukhiv/Ukrainka and Boryspil (01:16Z–01:20Z).
INFRASTRUCTURE: Kyiv Grid Instability (01:13Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Reports of fresh power outages in Kyiv following missile arrivals.
SEARCH & RESCUE: Brovary Extraction (01:19Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): Emergency services rescued a family from the basement of a destroyed residential building in the Brovary district.
TACTICAL LOSS: Siversk Direction (01:11Z, Colonelcassad, UNCONFIRMED): Pro-Russian sources released footage claiming the destruction of a UAF T-72 tank via FPV drone.
Kyiv Metropolitan Area: The center of gravity for the current RF air operation. The sector is facing a "saturated defense" scenario. Impacts confirmed in Dniprovskyi district (private house) and Brovary (residential).
Northern Axis (Chernihiv/Sumy): Continued use of the northern corridor for high-speed targets and UAVs entering Kyiv's airspace from the north.
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia): Transitioning from tactical drone pressure to high-speed missile threats.
Eastern Axis (Siversk): Increased Russian drone activity (Group "South") targeting UAF armor near the line of contact.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Innovation: The RF has evolved the "conveyor" approach into a "synchronized saturation" strike. By timing UAVs (slow), Kalibrs (subsonic), and Ballistics (hypersonic/ballistic) to arrive at the same DTG, they are attempting to fix UAF AD radars and force target prioritization errors.
Ballistic Narrative: Pro-RU sources (Rybar/Spring) are heavily promoting the use of "Oreshnik" or high-speed ballistic missiles (claiming 13,000 km/h in Lviv). Analytic Judgment: This is likely a psychological operation to amplify terror; while ballistic use is confirmed, the specific "Oreshnik" designation remains UNCONFIRMED.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: Maintaining high intercept rates against Kalibr waves 1 and 2 and the recent ballistic salvo. AD is currently engaging Wave 4 and remaining Shahed groups.
Civil Defense: DSNS continues extraction operations in Brovary and Dniprovskyi districts despite the ongoing multi-vector threat.
Information environment / disinformation
"Oreshnik" Branding: Russian channels are using the "Oreshnik" name to create an aura of invincibility around their ballistic capabilities (01:04Z).
Casualty Narratives: RU sources (NgP Razvedka) are framing strikes as "non-humanitarian heat" (01:27Z), signaling a deliberate intent to target the civilian energy supply during winter.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
CRITICAL. The air operation has not concluded. Wave 4 of Kalibrs is currently entering Kyiv's inner AD perimeter. Further "high-speed" (ballistic) launches are likely as RF seeks to exploit the "reloading" window of UAF batteries following the 01:23Z engagement. Expect localized blackouts in Kyiv to be expanded to stabilize the regional grid.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Oreshnik Verification: Technical analysis of debris from the 01:25Z ballistic intercept is required to distinguish between Iskander-M and newer experimental variants.
Zaporizhzhia Impact: Determine the targets of the 00:59Z high-speed targets (industrial vs. energy).
Siversk Armor Loss: Confirm the loss of the T-72 tank and assess if it indicates a depletion of local SHORAD protecting armored maneuvers.
IPB ANALYSIS (SITUATION REPORT SUPPLEMENT)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The battlefield geometry is currently defined by a "Vertical Envelopment" of Kyiv. The RF is using the 3D airspace to converge multiple weapon types from the North (ballistics), East (Kalibrs/UAVs), and South (Kalibrs via Bila Tserkva).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Course of Action: The RF is executing a "Triple-Threat" saturation.
UAVs (Shahed): Used as "loitering decoys" to keep AD radars active and identify battery locations.
Cruise Missiles (Kalibr): Launched in waves to deplete the interceptor magazine.
Ballistics: Launched during the peak of the cruise missile engagement to hit high-value targets while AD is saturated.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Readiness: UAF AD has shown resilience, managing to clear the first two "parties" of Kalibrs. However, the cumulative stress of continuous alerts and "double-tap" threats is taxing crew endurance.
4. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
MLCOA: Continued Kalibr waves (5 and potentially 6) will target Western Ukraine (Lviv/Ivano-Frankivsk) to split the AD focus away from Kyiv.
MDCOA: A transition to "Kinhal" (Kh-47M2) strikes on Kyiv's remaining AD command and control nodes while the current saturation persists.
//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//
FOR AD COMMAND: Rotate radar emission signatures immediately. The synchronization of RF strikes suggests they are using real-time ELINT to time ballistic launches against active AD nodes.
FOR ENERGY OPERATORS: Implement preemptive "controlled shedding" in Kyiv districts not yet hit to prevent cascading failures as the Dniprovskyi district infrastructure sustains damage.
FOR STRATEGIC COMMS: Counter the "Oreshnik" narrative by highlighting successful ballistic intercepts (01:25Z) to maintain public morale and AD credibility.
