KINETIC (CRUISE): Multi-Wave Kalibr Assault (00:34Z–00:56Z, Vanek/PS ZSU, HIGH): A massive cruise missile operation is underway. At least five distinct "waves" or batches of Kalibr missiles have been launched. The 1st wave is currently entering Kyiv airspace via Brovary, while the 5th wave has just entered the Mykolaiv/Kirovohrad corridor.
TACTICAL KINETIC: "Double-Tap" Strike in Kyiv (00:50Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): A second UAV strike hit a residential building in Kyiv while first responders were on-site. Confirmed fatalities and injuries among medical personnel.
CASUALTY UPDATE: Kyiv Fatalities (00:29Z–00:37Z, Tsaplienko/RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): Confirmed deaths have risen to at least three, including an entire family killed in a residential strike in the Shevchenkivskyi district.
INFRASTRUCTURE: Lviv Critical Hit (00:46Z, TASS/Regional Admin, HIGH): Lviv regional authorities confirm a strike on a critical infrastructure facility. This follows earlier reports of an "Oreshnik" or ballistic impact in the region.
KINETIC (UAV): Kyiv Saturation Subsiding (00:41Z–00:57Z, Vanek, MEDIUM): The volume of Shahed-type UAVs over the capital has dropped from 30+ to approximately 3 units, suggesting the UAV phase was a precursor to the incoming Kalibr waves.
OFFICER CASUALTY: Zaporizhzhia Sector (00:33Z, Colonelcassad, UNCONFIRMED/LOW): Pro-Russian sources claim the liquidation of Major Sergey Sokolov, Deputy Commander of the 102nd TDF Brigade.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Kyiv/Brovary): The capital is transitioning from a UAV saturation phase to a cruise missile impact phase. The 1st wave of Kalibrs is approaching from the East (Brovary/Zghurivka). Residential damage is concentrated in Shevchenkivskyi and Brovary.
Central Axis (Cherkasy/Poltava/Kirovohrad): This has become the primary transit corridor for RF cruise missiles. Significant missile activity is reported over Talne, Uman, Smila, and Pyriatyn.
Western Axis (Lviv): Confirmation of infrastructure damage indicates the "Air Operation" has successfully bypassed or overwhelmed local AD for specific high-value targets.
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia): Increased tactical pressure via the "Viking" detachment using FPV/strike drones within 20km of the city.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action: The RF is executing a classic "Saturation-to-Precision" sequence. UAVs were used to exhaust AD and fix MFGs, followed by a sustained, multi-wave Kalibr assault to strike targets while AD is reloading or repositioning.
Tactical Shift: The use of "double-tap" strikes targeting medical personnel (00:50Z) indicates a deliberate attempt to degrade civil defense morale and emergency response capacity.
Naval Posture: The launch of five waves of Kalibrs confirms a maximum-effort surge from the Black Sea Fleet’s Kalibr-capable platforms.
Friendly activity (UAF)
AD Posture: Air defense units are currently engaged with the 1st wave of Kalibrs over Kyiv and the 2nd/3rd waves over Cherkasy/Poltava.
Emergency Response: DSNS and medical teams are operating under extreme risk, evidenced by the casualties sustained during the double-tap strike in Kyiv.
Information environment / disinformation
Psychological Operations: Pro-Russian channels (NgP Razvedka) are amplifying the "power" of the strikes, using asteroid-impact metaphors to instill terror.
Distraction Narratives: TASS is circulating anachronistic reports (1952 Danish fire orders) and Lukashenko’s commentary on Venezuela/US oil interests (00:31Z, 00:42Z) to clutter the information space and dilute reporting on civilian casualties in Kyiv.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
CRITICAL. The 1st wave of Kalibrs will impact or be intercepted over Kyiv within the next 10-15 minutes. Waves 2 through 5 will reach their targets in Central and Northern Ukraine (Poltava, Kyiv, potentially Zhytomyr) over the next 60-90 minutes. High probability of additional infrastructure "switch-offs" to protect the grid.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Zaporizhzhia Officer Status: Confirm the status of Major Sergey Sokolov via friendly C2 channels.
Lviv BDA: Identify the specific type of "critical infrastructure" hit in Lviv to determine if it affects the energy export/import link with Poland.
Kalibr Origins: Confirm if any Kalibr launches are originating from the Caspian Flotilla, given the sustained volume of waves.
IPB ANALYSIS (SITUATION REPORT SUPPLEMENT)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The RF Air Operation has entered its most kinetic phase. The "Airborne Alert" is now nationwide, with the focus shifting from UAV-led terror to a massive, coordinated cruise missile strike across multiple oblasts. Weather remains a factor in the North, but air operations are unaffected.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Intent: To achieve a "systemic collapse" of the Kyiv AD umbrella and destroy remaining energy nodes in Western and Central Ukraine.
Capabilities: The RF has demonstrated the ability to maintain a continuous "missile conveyor," launching new waves every 10-15 minutes to prevent UAF AD from achieving a "clear sky" status.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Successes: Effective reduction of the Shahed swarm from 30+ to 3 units over Kyiv.
Setbacks: Significant civilian and first-responder casualties in the capital due to "double-tap" tactics and residential impacts.
4. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
MLCOA: Kalibr waves 2-5 will split vectors: two toward Kyiv to finish the saturation, two toward Western Ukraine (following the Lviv strike) to hit gas storage or rail hubs.
MDCOA: RF may launch a second wave of ballistic missiles (Iskander-M/KN-23) from the North (Bryansk/Kursk) to coincide with the Kalibr arrivals in Kyiv, creating a multi-vector "time-on-target" strike that is nearly impossible to fully intercept.
//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//
FOR FIRST RESPONDERS: Implement a mandatory "delayed entry" or "staggered response" protocol for strike zones in Kyiv to mitigate "double-tap" UAV/missile risks.
FOR AD COMMAND: Anticipate a vector shift; Kalibrs currently over Poltava (Pyriatyn) may swing West toward Kyiv or North toward Chernihiv. Maintain high-readiness for low-altitude intercepts.
FOR CIVIL ADMIN: Immediate blackout of BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) photos in Lviv and Kyiv to prevent RF correction of the subsequent Kalibr waves.
