AIR THREAT (NATIONAL): Warning of Massed Night Strike (1703Z, Zelenskiy/Official, HIGH): President Zelenskyy has issued an urgent warning regarding a likely massed Russian missile/UAV strike tonight, potentially exploiting deteriorating weather conditions.
KINETIC (LYMAN): Russian Advance on Sviatohirsk (1711Z, Rybar, MEDIUM): Russian forces report significant operational progress on the approaches to Sviatohirsk, threatening to destabilize the Oskil river defensive line.
KINETIC (ZAPORIZHZHIA): Russian Gains Near Huliaipole (1701Z, Voin DV, MEDIUM): Pro-Russian sources report tactical successes on the northern flank of the Huliaipole sector, corroborating previous reports of a breakthrough near the Gaychur River.
EQUIPMENT (TACTICAL): Deployment of "Mangas" Heavy Hexacopter Swarm (1700Z, Colonelcassad, HIGH): Visual evidence confirms a large shipment of "Mangas" heavy hexacopters (likely "Baba Yaga" class analogs) being prepared for frontline deployment.
REAR AREA (BELGOROD): UAF Drone Strike on Official (1703Z, Dva Mayora, HIGH): The head of the Grayvoron District, Dmitry Pankov, was wounded in a UAF drone strike, indicating continued Ukrainian reach into Russian border administration.
HYBRID OPS (MARITIME): Sanction Evasion Network Exposed (1726Z, ASTRA, MEDIUM): Investigations into the seized tanker Marinera link it to Moldovan oligarch Ilan Shor, confirming a sophisticated RU-Moldovan network for bypassing Western sanctions.
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Axis (Kryvyi Rih/Zaporizhzhia): Continued strikes on Kryvyi Rih (1706Z) sustain the infrastructure crisis. Near Orikhiv, Russian 291st Regiment FPV units claim to have neutralized two UAF tanks (1703Z). In Eastern Zaporizhzhia, Russian forces are attempting to exploit the Gaychur River breakthrough to roll up the Huliaipole northern flank.
Eastern Axis (Lyman/Pokrovsk): The Lyman sector is under high pressure; Russian forces are pushing toward Sviatohirsk (1711Z). In the Petrovka/Kamyshevakha area, Russian 150th Motorized Rifle Division claims destruction of two UAF D-30 howitzers (1721Z), suggesting successful Russian counter-battery or drone-directed fire.
Northern Axis (Kharkiv/Border): Operations remain constrained by snow, but the injury to the Grayvoron official (1703Z) indicates that UAF continues to utilize drone assets for targeted strikes despite weather.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action (Strategic): Russia is preparing a large-scale strike package for tonight. Pro-Russian sources are circulating claims that the "Oreshnik" experimental ballistic missile may be utilized (1725Z, UNCONFIRMED/LOW). This is likely a psychological operation designed to induce panic ahead of a standard massed strike.
Course of Action (Tactical): Increasing reliance on heavy hexacopter swarms ("Mangas") suggests a shift toward high-payload drone saturation of UAF defensive positions to compensate for slowed mechanized mobility in the snow.
Logistics: Russian sources continue to monitor UAF production shifts, highlighting the relocation of Ukrainian UAV manufacturing to Poland (1706Z) as a key target for future long-range interdiction or diplomatic pressure.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Counter-Offensive Measures: UAF continues to target high-value administrative and logistical targets in the Russian rear (Belgorod).
Defensive Posture: Government services and military AD are on 24-hour alert following Zelenskyy’s warnings. Focus is on protecting the already damaged energy/water hubs in the South from the predicted overnight wave.
Information environment / disinformation
Psychological Operations: The mention of "Oreshnik" (1725Z) is a clear attempt to amplify the fear of the impending night strike.
International Framing: Russian commentary on US Congressional votes regarding Venezuela (1707Z) seeks to frame the US as "warmongers" and unreliable partners, attempting to draw parallels with US support for Ukraine.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Massed Strike): A coordinated wave of Shahed UAVs followed by Kalibr and Kh-101 cruise missiles targeting thermal power plants (TPPs) and remaining water infrastructure nodes, specifically timing the impact to coincide with sub-zero overnight temperatures.
MDCOA (Experimental Escalation): Use of an "Oreshnik" or other non-standard ballistic assets against a high-value command hub or psychological target (e.g., Kyiv) to demonstrate technical escalation.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
SVIATOHIRSK DEPTH: Confirm the exact extent of Russian penetration toward Sviatohirsk. (P1)
HULIAIPOLE FLANK: Verify if Russian forces have established permanent fire control over the H-15 highway following the Huliaipole/Gaychur gains. (P1)
"MANGAS" DEPLOYMENT: Identify the specific sector (likely Zaporizhzhia or Lyman) where the heavy hexacopter swarm is being deployed. (P2)
IPB ANALYSIS (Updates Only)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The battlefield is currently split between Static Northern Fronts (weather-locked) and High-Mobility Air/Drone Fronts in the South. The imminent massed strike warning (1703Z) indicates a major Russian aero-ballistic effort is synchronized with the infrastructure collapse in Kryvyi Rih.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capability: The introduction of "Mangas" hexacopters (1700Z) indicates a maturation of the Russian "drone swarm" concept, moving from small FPVs to heavy, multi-drop platforms.
Tactics: Integration of hybrid maritime evasion (Ilan Shor/Marinera) shows the GUR/SBU needs to expand maritime interdiction focus beyond warships to the "Shadow Fleet."
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Vulnerability: Russian claims of destroying D-30 assets (1721Z) and tanks (1703Z) in the Oskil and Zaporizhzhia sectors suggest UAF is struggling with localized Russian drone dominance during tactical rotations.
4. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Strategic Strike: The next 12 hours are critical. The expected strike is not just kinetic but designed to cause systemic "cascading failures" in the Ukrainian rear to force political concessions.
Frontline: Russian progress in Lyman (1711Z) suggests they are attempting to seize key heights before the "deep freeze" stabilizes the mud, allowing for long-range fire over the Oskil river.
//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//
AIR DEFENSE DISPERSION: Immediately relocate mobile AD groups to secondary/tertiary firing positions in anticipation of "Oreshnik" or multi-vector ballistic strikes; prioritize protection of water/heating repair hubs. (Priority: CRITICAL)
LYMAN REINFORCEMENT: Dispatch rapid-response units with specialized EW to the Sviatohirsk approaches to counter the likely integration of the "Mangas" hexacopter swarms in that sector. (Priority: HIGH)
EW PRIORITIZATION (HULIAIPOLE): Deploy frequency-hopping EW assets to the Huliaipole northern flank to counter the 291st Regiment's successful FPV tank-hunting tactics. (Priority: MEDIUM)
