KINETIC (KRYVYI RIH): Sustained Missile/UAV Pressure (1632Z, ASTRA, HIGH): Confirmed strikes on Kryvyi Rih have resulted in significant structural damage and the disruption of the "Kryvbassvodokanal" water supply system.
CASUALTIES (KRYVYI RIH): Increase in Civilian Injuries (1657Z, RBK-UA/Vilkyl, HIGH): The casualty count from the recent strikes has risen to 10 wounded, including at least one child.
AIR THREAT (NATIONAL): UAV Axis Shifting (1649Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH): A group of Shahed-type UAVs has transitioned from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast toward Kharkiv Oblast, indicating a broadening of the strike envelope to the northeast.
KINETIC (POKROVSK): Logistics Interdiction (1629Z, Sternenko, MEDIUM): UAF drone unit "Phoenix" is conducting sustained day/night operations against Russian logistics in the Pokrovsk sector.
INFO-OPS (RUSSIA): Exploitation of UAF Mobilization (1646Z, RU MoD, MEDIUM): Russian state media is circulating video of a POW (Petr Melnichenko) claiming to have been drafted despite physical disabilities, targeting UAF mobilization morale.
INFO-OPS (GERMANY): Disinformation regarding Bundeswehr (1646Z, Arkhangel Spetsnaza, LOW): Pro-Russian channels are framing routine Bundeswehr school outreach as a precursor to "mandatory conscription" for war with Russia.
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Axis (Kryvyi Rih/Zaporizhzhia): The tactical situation in Kryvyi Rih has deteriorated from an energy-centric emergency to a broader utility failure. The loss of water supply (1632Z) combined with sub-zero temperatures threatens to freeze municipal pipe networks. A new wave of UAVs is currently inbound to Kryvyi Rih (1643Z), likely intended to disrupt emergency repair crews.
Eastern Axis (Pokrovsk/Donbas): High-tempo UAF drone operations (1629Z) continue to attrit Russian soft-skin transport. While Russian forces maintain pressure, the "Phoenix" unit’s night-capability suggests Russian night-time rotations are under constant observation and fire.
Northeastern Axis (Kharkiv): The movement of UAV groups from Dnipro toward Kharkiv (1649Z) suggests a multi-vector air assault designed to saturate Air Defense (AD) assets that were likely repositioned to cover the Southern infrastructure crisis.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Course of Action: The enemy is employing a "sequential saturation" tactic—using ballistic strikes to create infrastructure "breaks" (water/power) followed by Shahed waves to pin down first responders and repair teams (Double-Tap variant).
Logistics & Sustainment: Video evidence (1629Z) confirms that RU logistics in the Pokrovsk sector remain highly vulnerable to FPV interdiction, forcing a reliance on decentralized, high-risk supply runs.
Psychological Operations: The Kremlin is intensifying a "Global Instability" narrative, using Lukashenko's comments on Venezuela (1648Z) and domestic US political procedural votes (1654Z) to frame the US as an unreliable partner, specifically targeting the cognitive domain of Western and neutral audiences.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: UAF Air Force is actively tracking and engaging multiple UAV groups across Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv Oblasts.
Counter-Logistics: UAF "Phoenix" unit is successfully maintaining a "no-go" zone for Russian unarmored logistics in the Pokrovsk direction, which is critical for slowing the RU tempo in the Donbas.
Information environment / disinformation
Mobilization Narrative: The RU MoD's focus on "unfit" POWs (1646Z) is a deliberate attempt to amplify internal Ukrainian debates regarding mobilization laws.
European Stability: The disinformation regarding German conscription (1646Z) is designed to trigger anti-war sentiment within the EU and complicate military aid packages by framing them as steps toward direct conflict.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued Shahed strikes on Kryvyi Rih to prevent water system restoration before temperatures drop tonight, aiming for a "freeze-out" of the civilian population.
MDCOA: A coordinated missile strike on Kharkiv rail/logistics hubs while AD is fixated on the UAV wave moving from the South.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
KRYVYI RIH WATER INFRASTRUCTURE: Determine the exact nodes of the "Kryvbassvodokanal" that are non-functional and the estimated time to repair (ETTR) under fire. (P1)
KHARKIV AD DISPOSITION: Assess if AD assets in Kharkiv have been thinned to support the Dnipro/Kryvyi Rih sector. (P1)
POKROVSK RU ADAPTATION: Monitor if RU forces are introducing localized EW to counter the "Phoenix" unit's night-strike capabilities. (P2)
IPB ANALYSIS (Updates Only)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational focus remains on Infrastructure Strangulation. The Russian air campaign has successfully pivoted from the energy grid to the water supply in Kryvyi Rih. The movement of air threats toward Kharkiv indicates a broadening of the "winter freeze" offensive.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Course of Action: Russia is integrating "Hostage Diplomacy" narratives and foreign policy friction (Venezuela) into their tactical updates to create a sense of inevitable Western abandonment.
Logistics: Increased attrition of "Bukhanka" vans in Pokrovsk indicates that RU sustainment remains "just-in-time" and fragile.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Resilience: UAF's ability to maintain high-intensity drone operations (Phoenix) despite the air campaign in the rear indicates a high degree of decentralized command and sustainment for frontline UAV units.
4. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Short-term: Expect a significant humanitarian emergency in Kryvyi Rih if water is not restored within 6 hours. The "Double-tap" threat from the incoming Shaheds (1643Z) is the primary obstacle to restoration.
Strategic: The focus on the US Senate's Venezuela vote in RU media suggests a shift toward highlighting "US Legislative constraints" to discourage Ukrainian belief in long-term US military support.
//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//
DECENTRALIZED WATER SUPPORT: Deploy mobile water purification and distribution units to Kryvyi Rih neighborhoods immediately; do not rely on centralized hubs which are currently being targeted. (Priority: CRITICAL)
KHARKIV AD ALERT: Raise the readiness level of SHORAD in the Kharkiv corridor. The UAV movement from Dnipro (1649Z) is likely a precursor to a larger strike or a reconnaissance-in-force of AD gaps. (Priority: HIGH)
COUNTER-INFO CAMPAIGN: Rapidly debunk the RU MoD "unfit POW" video (1646Z) with service records or evidence of coercion to neutralize the anti-mobilization narrative. (Priority: MEDIUM)
