KINETIC (KRYVYI RIH): Sequential Ballistic and UAV Strike (1500Z-1512Z, Vilkul/Vanyek, HIGH): Multiple ballistic impacts confirmed in Kryvyi Rih, immediately followed by low-altitude Shahed-type UAVs ("mopeds") to complicate damage control and air defense (AD) re-engagement.
KINETIC (ZAPORIZHZHIA): KAB Ingress (1503Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Russian tactical aviation has launched Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) targeting the Zaporizhzhia region, maintaining pressure on the Southern Axis.
INFRASTRUCTURE (NATIONAL): Nationwide Power Rationing (1517Z, Ukrenergo, HIGH): Ukrenergo has mandated nationwide consumption schedules for Jan 09, confirming systemic grid instability following recent strikes.
KINETIC (KUPYANSK): Counter-Sabotage Operations (1510Z, Tsaplienko, MEDIUM): UAF forces are conducting "clearing" operations in Kupyansk; reports indicate Russian personnel are attempting to evade capture by masking as civilian population.
INFRASTRUCTURE (PAVLOHRAD): Repair Interdiction (1527Z, RBK-UA, MEDIUM): Pavlohrad is reportedly without power; ongoing air alerts and the threat of "double-tap" strikes are preventing utility crews from initiating repairs.
INFO-OPS (MARITIME): "Mariner" Seizure Narrative (1501Z, Arkhangel Spetsnaza, MEDIUM): Pro-Russian sources are amplifying detailed infographics regarding the US seizure of the tanker Mariner to frame Western actions as "piracy."
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Axis (Kryvyi Rih/Zaporizhzhia): This remains the primary kinetic focus. The "city-kill" operation against Kryvyi Rih has evolved into a multi-modal strike pattern (Ballistic + UAV). In Zaporizhzhia, while the city alert was cleared at 1518Z, the oblast remains under KAB threat.
Eastern Axis (Kupyansk/Donbas): The situation in Kupyansk is fluid. While previous reports indicated the loss of Podoly, current reports of "clearing" operations (1510Z) suggest UAF is actively hunting bypassed RU units or infiltrators within the city limits. Near Novoselovka, RU forces claim the destruction of a UAF Paladin (1503Z, UNCONFIRMED).
Rear Areas (Pavlohrad/Dnipro): Pavlohrad is effectively neutralized as a logistical support node due to total power failure and persistent aerial threats (1527Z).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Adaptation (Infiltration): In the Kupyansk sector, the use of civilian clothing by RU forces (1510Z) indicates a shift toward stay-behind sabotage or asymmetric evasion tactics as the conventional front stabilizes or shifts.
Strike Synchronization: The 1507Z-1509Z reports of low-flying UAVs entering Kryvyi Rih minutes after ballistic impacts (1500Z) demonstrate a highly coordinated attempt to strike emergency responders or target AD systems while they are in reload cycles.
Asymmetric Experimentation (UNCONFIRMED/LOW): Claims of Starlink-equipped biological platforms (horses) in the field (1522Z, Alex Parker) are likely psychological operations or isolated field experiments; however, they reflect an enemy intent to find "low-tech" gaps in electronic warfare (EW) blankets.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Counter-Sabotage: Active clearing of Kupyansk to secure the Oskil river logistics.
Specialized Units: Presidential Brigade's BBS (Unmanned Systems) unit is active (1522Z), likely countering RU mechanized probes in the East.
Civil Resilience: Ukrenergo is proactively managing the grid collapse by implementing national schedules (1517Z) to prevent a total "black start" scenario.
Information environment / disinformation
Economic Sabotage Narratives: Russian channels are pushing unverified claims regarding the nationalization of Lukoil assets in Iraq and their transfer to the US (1516Z). This is designed to incite anti-Western sentiment in Global South energy markets.
Maritime Retaliation: The heavy focus on the Mariner tanker (1501Z) serves to justify future RF kinetic or legal actions against international shipping in the Black Sea.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued UAV harassment of Kryvyi Rih and Pavlohrad throughout the night to prevent utility restoration.
MDCOA: A second ballistic wave targeting the Dnipro/Zaporizhzhia energy nodes to synchronize with the nationwide "Ukrenergo" restrictions, aiming for a regional grid collapse.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
KUPYANSK CONTROL: Clarify the status of Podoly; if clearing operations are "final stages" (1510Z), has the RU breakthrough been contained or bypassed? (P1)
KRYVYI RIH UTILITY STATUS: Determine if the 1500Z ballistic strike hit the "Gorvodokanal" specifically or wider energy distribution. (P1)
BBS EFFECTIVENESS: Assess the impact of Presidential Brigade BBS units on RU mechanized assets near Novoselovka to verify RU claims of "Paladin" destruction. (P2)
IPB ANALYSIS (Updates Only)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The battlefield geometry in the South is now defined by vertical escalation (ballistics/KABs) rather than horizontal movement. In the East, the Kupyansk sector is transitioning into a high-intensity urban security operation as UAF attempts to root out RU elements masking as civilians.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Intent: The transition to low-flying "mopeds" (1507Z) after ballistic strikes suggests RU is mapping UAF AD "blind spots" created by the high-velocity ballistic ingress.
Logistics: RU continues to demonstrate high availability of KABs in the Southern Military District, utilizing maritime launch envelopes to bypass the Odesa-Mykolaiv AD screen.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Constraints: The nationwide power rationing (1517Z) will likely impact UAF maintenance and repair depots in the rear (Dnipro/Kharkiv), potentially slowing the turnaround of damaged mechanized equipment.
Adaptation: UAF "BBS" (Unmanned Systems) units are increasingly the primary response force against RU tactical gains in the Donbas.
4. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Short-term: Expect Pavlohrad and Kryvyi Rih to remain in total blackout for at least 24 hours as "double-tap" threats prevent safe repair conditions.
Strategic: The Russian focus on "Mariner" and "Iraq oil" (1501Z, 1516Z) suggests the Kremlin is preparing the information space for an escalation in the "Shadow Fleet" war, potentially targeting Western energy infrastructure or shipping outside the immediate theater.
//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//
SIGNAL DISCIPLINE (KUPYANSK): Increase thermal and biometric screening at checkpoints in the Kupyansk sector to counter RU "civilian masking" tactics. (Priority: HIGH)
AD COORDINATION: Integrate SHORAD (Short Range Air Defense) with utility repair teams in Pavlohrad to provide a local "bubble" against UAVs, allowing critical repairs to commence despite general air alerts. (Priority: CRITICAL)
COUNTER-STRATCOM: Rapidly debunk Iraqi oil nationalization claims via diplomatic channels to prevent erosion of support in energy-producing partner nations. (Priority: MEDIUM)
