KINETIC (KRYVYI RIH): Incoming Ballistic Missile Strike (1459Z, UAF Air Force / Nikolaev Vanek, HIGH): UAF Air Force has issued a critical warning of a ballistic missile target inbound for Kryvyi Rih. This follows the 1456Z general ballistic threat from the south reported previously.
INFO-OPS (RF): Domestic Psychological Campaign (1459Z, RT/Basurin, HIGH): Russian state media (RT) has launched a documentary series focused on the wives of wounded Russian soldiers. This is a clear attempt to humanize the "Special Military Operation" (SVO) and stabilize domestic morale.
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Axis (Kryvyi Rih / Zaporizhzhia): The primary focus has shifted to Kryvyi Rih. Already suffering from "critical failure" of water and power infrastructure (Daily Report), the city is currently under ballistic attack. In Zaporizhzhia, the situation near the Gaychur River remains volatile following RU claims of a localized breakthrough (Previous Sitrep).
Coastal Sector (Odesa): Remains under threat of deep-penetrating KABs. The flight path toward Mayaki (1432Z, Previous Sitrep) suggests RU aviation is attempting to interdict logistics near the Moldovan border.
Eastern Axis (Lyman): RU "Guards" units continue tactical probes to exploit recently claimed gains (Previous Sitrep).
Northern Axis (Kharkiv/Rivne): Operations are heavily constrained by severe winter weather (KHOVA, 1436Z). Ground mobility for mechanized units is likely at a standstill.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Ballistic Interdiction: Russia is prioritizing the total neutralization of Kryvyi Rih as a logistical and industrial hub. The use of ballistics (1459Z) against a city with already degraded infrastructure suggests an intent to force a humanitarian crisis to tie up UAF resources.
Aerial Adaptation: RU continues to use complex KAB trajectories and ballistic salvos from the south to bypass UAF Air Defense (AD) umbrellas.
Psychological Operations: The RT documentary series (1459Z) indicates a strategic shift in the information domain. By focusing on the families of the wounded, the Kremlin is attempting to build "patriotic resilience" and normalize the long-term human cost of the conflict within the RF domestic population.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense (AD): High state of alert maintained. Immediate detection and public warning of the ballistic threat to Kryvyi Rih (1459Z) demonstrate effective C2.
Infrastructure Resilience: Civil-military authorities in Kryvyi Rih are attempting to manage water/power failures while under active kinetic bombardment.
Defensive Posture: UAF units in the North (Kharkiv/Rivne) are transitioning to winter defensive protocols as mobility decreases due to heavy snow.
Information environment / disinformation
Humanization Campaign: Russian channels (Basurin, 1459Z) are amplifying "no-falsehood" narratives regarding the families of wounded soldiers. This is likely a counter-measure to rising domestic anxiety regarding casualties.
Fragmenting Europe: Continued amplification of the misattributed "Chancellor" Merz quote (Previous Sitrep) to project Western disunity.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action): RU will continue "double-tap" or follow-on strikes on Kryvyi Rih to prevent repairs to the "Gorvodokanal" utility. In the North, RU will rely on indirect fire and FPV drones as the snowstorm prevents mechanized maneuvers.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action): A coordinated ballistic and Shahed-type UAV swarm targeting the Odesa port infrastructure and the Mayaki-Moldova logistical corridor while AD is occupied with the Kryvyi Rih/Zaporizhzhia sectors.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
BATTLE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT (Kryvyi Rih): Urgent requirement to determine the impact of the 1459Z ballistic strike. (P1)
LAUNCH PLATFORM IDENTIFICATION: Confirm if the Kryvyi Rih ballistic target originated from Crimea (Iskander-M) or sea-based platforms. (P1)
GAYCHUR RIVER VERIFICATION: Satellite/recon confirmation of the extent of RU localized advances in Zaporizhzhia remains a priority. (P2)
IPB ANALYSIS
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo is increasingly bifurcated: a weather-induced stagnation in the North (Kharkiv/Rivne) and an escalating aerial/ballistic offensive in the South (Odesa/Kryvyi Rih). The targeting of Kryvyi Rih represents a deliberate effort to achieve a strategic "city-kill" by disabling life-support infrastructure during peak winter conditions.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities: RU maintains a consistent "fires-heavy" approach. The shift toward ballistic missiles against Kryvyi Rih (1459Z) indicates they are willing to expend high-value munitions to finalize the destruction of targets previously softened by KABs and UAVs.
Adaptation: The RT documentary campaign (1459Z) shows the RF is moving toward a "total war" social footing, preparing its population for the emotional and social consequences of sustained high-intensity warfare.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Posture: UAF is in a "damage control" phase in the South. The ability to defend Kryvyi Rih is compromised by the city's geographical proximity to southern launch sites and the current degradation of its internal utility grid.
Readiness: High, but increasingly stressed by the dual requirements of winter emergency response and active missile defense.
4. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Short-term: Expect a critical humanitarian situation in Kryvyi Rih within the next 12 hours if water/power are not restored and strikes continue.
Logistics: The snow in Kharkiv will create a "frozen front," where any movement will be easily spotted by RU thermal UAVs, increasing the risk to UAF resupply convoys.
//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//
KRYVYI RIH BDA: Immediately deploy UAV assets for Post-Strike Reconnaissance/BDA in Kryvyi Rih to coordinate emergency response and identify "double-tap" threats. (Priority: CRITICAL)
MOBILE AD DISPERSAL: Shift mobile AD units in the Odesa/Mykolaiv corridor to cover inland "blind spots" (Mayaki/Ovidiopol) identified in recent KAB trajectories. (Priority: HIGH)
STRATCOM COUNTER: Counter the RT "wounded wives" narrative by highlighting the RF MOD's failure to provide adequate medical care or transparency regarding actual casualty figures. (Priority: MEDIUM)
