KINETIC (ODESA): Deep KAB Penetration (1431Z, Mykolaiv Vanek, HIGH): Russian tactical aviation expanded Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) strikes deeper into the Odesa region, with projectiles traversing Ovidiopol toward Mayaki. UAF Air Force confirmed the trajectory (1434Z).
KINETIC (ZAPORIZHZHIA): Reported RU Local Breakthrough (1431Z, Rybar, MEDIUM): Pro-Russian sources claim significant localized advances on the northern flank near the Gaychur River. This suggests an attempt to outflank current defensive lines.
KINETIC (LYMAN): RU Tactical Success (1441Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): RU "Guards" units claim tactical gains on the Krasnyi Lyman front. Annotated maps suggest a localized push to improve tactical positioning.
ENVIRONMENTAL: Severe Winter Weather Onset (1436Z, KHOVA/Sinyegubov, HIGH): Heavy snow and severe weather are impacting Kharkiv and Rivne. Rivne has shifted schools to remote learning (1451Z). This will likely degrade mobility for both sides.
DIPLOMATIC: Prisoner Exchange (1432Z, Colonelcassad, HIGH): A prisoner exchange occurred involving a Russian citizen and a French national designated as a "foreign agent."
ECONOMIC: Iraqi Nationalization of RU Asset (1438Z, ASTRA, HIGH): Iraq has temporarily nationalized a Lukoil-operated oil field, a significant blow to Russian foreign energy revenue and influence.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Kharkiv/Kupyansk): RU UAVs are active in the Kupyansk and Izyum sectors (1447Z). Operations are increasingly constrained by deteriorating weather conditions.
Eastern Axis (Lyman/Donbas): A new focus of RU activity is noted on the Krasnyi Lyman front (1441Z). While the previous sitrep focused on Pokrovsk, RU is attempting to maintain pressure across multiple Donbas vectors to prevent UAF reserve shifting.
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia): RU forces are attempting to exploit the northern flank near the Gaychur River (1431Z). This is a critical area for protecting the H-15 highway and the broader Zaporizhzhia approach.
Coastal Sector (Odesa): RU aviation continues to utilize maritime launch envelopes. The flight path toward Mayaki (1432Z) indicates an intent to strike infrastructure further inland from the coast, likely targeting logistical links to the Moldovan border.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Adaptation: RU is diversifying its KAB targets in the Odesa region, moving from immediate coastal settlements to inland logistical hubs (Mayaki).
Ballistic Threat: A high-confidence threat of ballistic missile application from the south was issued at 1456Z (UAF Air Force). This likely targets energy or port infrastructure in the Odesa/Mykolaiv corridor.
Diplomatic Exploitation: RU is using the exchange of the French "foreign agent" (1432Z) to bolster domestic narratives of protecting citizens while highlighting Western "espionage."
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense (AD): Successful tracking and warning of KAB and ballistic threats. Active monitoring of RU UAVs in the Kupyansk/Izyum sectors.
Civil-Military Readiness: Regional administrations (Kharkiv/Rivne) have activated weather-emergency protocols to maintain essential services during the snowstorm, which is critical for maintaining rear-area stability.
Legal/Internal Security: The Prosecutor General’s office is actively pursuing gross negligence cases against local officials (1430Z), indicating ongoing efforts to maintain institutional integrity despite wartime pressures.
Information environment / disinformation
"Chancellor" Merz Narrative: RU channels are misidentifying Friedrich Merz as "Chancellor" and amplifying his comments that Western troop deployment is impossible without RU consent (1456Z). This is a deliberate campaign to project European fragmentation.
Social Normalization: RU sources (Dva Mayora, 1450Z) are blending holiday imagery (Christmas trees) with military volunteerism to normalize long-term conflict within the Russian domestic population.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: RU will likely attempt to consolidate gains near the Gaychur River before the full onset of the snowstorm restricts mechanized movement. Continued KAB/Ballistic strikes on Odesa infrastructure.
MDCOA: A coordinated missile/UAV strike on the Kharkiv energy grid during the weather emergency to maximize humanitarian distress.
Logistics: Ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in the North and West (Rivne/Kharkiv) will slow significantly due to snow, potentially creating windows for RU to strike static convoys.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Gaychur River Verification: Confirm the extent of RU "success" on the Zaporizhzhia northern flank via satellite imagery or ground recon (P1).
Ballistic Launch Platforms: Identify the specific platforms (Iskander-M or K-300P Bastion-P) utilized for the southern ballistic threat (P1).
Lyman Sector Strength: Assess the unit composition of the RU "Guards" units active on the Krasnyi Lyman front to determine if this is a secondary effort or a major shift in focus (P2).
IPB ANALYSIS
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is currently dominated by meteorological shifts and deep aerial interdiction. The onset of heavy snow in the North/West will force a transition to static/infantry-heavy operations. RU is attempting to capitalize on the last window of clear weather to make tactical gains in Zaporizhzhia and Lyman while maintaining psychological pressure on Odesa via inland KAB strikes.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Course of Action: Russia is executing a "wide-front pressure" strategy. By claiming gains in Zaporizhzhia, Lyman, and Sumy (previous report), they force UAF to spread its high-readiness brigades (like the 71st) thin.
Capabilities: RU maintains a high-tempo aerial capability, specifically KABs, which are being used with increasing sophistication in terms of flight paths to bypass AD.
Logistics: The Iraqi nationalization of Lukoil assets (1438Z) will likely have a delayed impact on the RU MOD budget but signals a weakening of Russia’s "energy diplomacy" leverage.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Readiness: UAF is demonstrating high responsiveness to aerial threats and environmental challenges. The proactive shift to remote learning in Rivne and weather readiness in Kharkiv shows effective administrative C2.
Constraints: The ballistic threat from the south (1456Z) remains a critical vulnerability, especially if RU targets the energy infrastructure already stressed by the winter weather.
4. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Short-term (Tactical): Expect a "weather-induced lull" in heavy mechanized activity within 12-24 hours in the North, replaced by increased FPV drone activity and indirect fire.
Strategic: The RU emphasis on the Friedrich Merz quote suggests they are preparing a diplomatic "off-ramp" narrative that frames RU as the "gatekeeper" of European security, intended to influence the upcoming German electoral cycle.
//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//
GLOC Winterization: Prioritize salt/plow assets for military GLOCs in Kharkiv and Rivne to prevent logistical bottlenecks for UAF reinforcements (Priority: HIGH).
AD Vector Adjustment: Re-orient Odesa AD sensors to account for inland KAB trajectories passing through Ovidiopol toward Mayaki; focus on interdicting launch platforms over the Black Sea (Priority: HIGH).
Zaporizhzhia Counter-Recon: Increase drone surveillance over the Gaychur River sector to verify RU claims; if advances are confirmed, deploy reserves to prevent the outflanking of the H-15 highway (Priority: MEDIUM).
